Force to drive the Turks out of Syria will not work: how to solve the conflict in Idlib

The operation of government troops to liberate northern Syria from terrorists, carried out with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces, continues. Amid success, President Bashar al-Assad promised the complete liberation of the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib from militants. However, with each next step, the risk of a direct clash between Syrians and Russians with the Turkish army increases.

The main reason for such a rapid advance of Assad’s troops is that they are opposed not by a systemic opponent, but by the so-called “barmalei”. Unfortunately, further everything will be much more complicated. Ankara gathered in Idlib, according to some sources, a group of 7 thousand military personnel with 2 thousand military units equipment. This is more than the combined Russian and American contingent in the SAR. Moreover, the Turks are doing everything in a pointed manner and not hiding to indicate the seriousness of their intentions.

The fact is that Ankara has something to lose if Damascus succeeds. Two large-scale military operations have already been undertaken so that Turkey can take control of the northern border of Syria to stop the so-called Kurdish threat. On this, President Erdogan decided not to limit himself and in fact turned Idlib and part of the neighboring province of Aleppo into a real terrorist enclave.

This Ankara killed three birds with one stone. Firstly, control over the border and the “buffer zone” from the armed groups of the Kurds. Secondly, due to these territories, it is possible to solve the problem with the millions of Syrian refugees who are Turkey itself unnecessarily. This is a minimum program. Thirdly, a de facto quasi-state not controlled by official Damascus was created in the SAR, where oppositionists dissatisfied with the Bashar al-Assad regime flocked. In the long run, Ankara could use this geopolitical trump card to change power in Syria, which was a province of the Ottoman Empire a century ago, and bring its own “pocket satraps”. And this is the maximum Turkish program.

For obvious reasons, these plans cannot be delighted in Damascus and Moscow. There are irreconcilable contradictions between the parties that can only be resolved by force. But with this the Allies may have serious problems.

In fact, the Syrians have already stopped, not having passed the last 8 kilometers to the capital Idlib. It turned out to be enough for the Turkish military to deliver a series of attacks on their positions. In order to slow down the air support of the Russian Aerospace Forces, the Turks handed out to the militants MANPADS of unknown production, with the help of which they had already shot down two Syrian helicopters. President Erdogan directly threatened to bring down "any planes" that would operate in Idlib, apparently alluding to the Russians. It can be assumed that if a decision is made, more serious anti-aircraft systems will be involved.

The situation has come to the point where it is necessary either to negotiate, or to fight seriously, with corresponding losses on both sides. Apparently, at this stage, the most rational is to reach a new agreement with Turkey on the next redistribution of the north of Syria, in which Ankara’s ambitions will significantly decrease, but its interests will be respected.
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  1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 18 February 2020 13: 57
    If the Syrians and ours managed it after one blow, then, of course, an agreement must be concluded. Lavrov will manifest himself in all its glory, as with previous agreements. I repeat that if you came to the WAR YOURSELF, then you must fight, and not conclude any agreements. But it seems to me that OUR military is not allowed to fight there! For the war it was already a lot of all kinds of agreements.
  2. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 18 February 2020 15: 29
    If power is only demagogy, then the author is right. And if you show that you can not threaten Russia, then everything can be decided. To begin with - close the sky completely, then block the caravan routes ....
    1. Osiris Offline Osiris
      Osiris (Osiris) 18 February 2020 18: 40
      Not everything is so simple in Syria to solve all issues exclusively by force ... and we don’t need it. It is important not to lose the initiative and gradually resolve the most pressing issues. Stone sharpens water.
    2. xilia72 Offline xilia72
      xilia72 (xantos) 19 February 2020 00: 21
      The Russian Federation depends on Turkey directly, grew. the army in Syria is supplied through the straits. Everything is generally very complicated. There are even versions that grew. the army there at the invitation of Washington or Tel Aviv, to deal with the Barmel men with the wrong hands.
  3. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 18 February 2020 15: 37
    Quote: kriten
    If power is only demagogy, then the author is right. And if you show that you can not threaten Russia, then everything can be decided. To begin with - close the sky completely, then block the caravan routes ....

    We lowered the Su-24 to the Turks. What now ...
  4. Sergey Antonov Offline Sergey Antonov
    Sergey Antonov (Sergey Antonov) 18 February 2020 17: 56
    In time, the S-400 sold))
  5. Wanderer039 Offline Wanderer039
    Wanderer039 18 February 2020 19: 39
    We’ll wait and see ... So far, NATO is not eager to fight on the Turkish side, and an attempt to use M-60 tanks and the best Leopard 2 in the Turkish army in Syria ended in turrets and burned crews torn off by ammunition ..
  6. 69 Offline 69
    69 18 February 2020 20: 18
    To declare Turkey an occupier, which in fact is.
    1. AICO Offline AICO
      AICO (Vyacheslav) 19 February 2020 07: 25
      And then a piece of the pipe can be cut out of the stream - don’t get anyone, you’ll be infected, and bombard Akkuyu with air raid !!! )
  7. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 18 February 2020 22: 36
    There are over 3 Syrian refugees in Turkey, a couple more millions have fled to Europe through Turkey and in these conditions it’s silly to pretend that Turkey has no interests in the north of Syria! Turkey is interested in creating a controlled buffer zone in northern Syria to accommodate part of the refugees. Ignore the interests and rights (!!!) of Turkey will not work, you can moderate the appetite, but not ignore. The chain of events that led to today's situation is very complicated, and it did not make Assad a righteous person, but all his opponents as Islamists.