Union State's “sunset” will become a verdict to President Lukashenko

Minsk “pleased” with another innovation, which, in fact, is hardly a masked anti-Russian demarche. There suddenly for no reason they decided to change the state emblem. Rather, do not even change, but adjust. The main “highlight” in this case is a slightly different perspective of the globe located in the center of the image, as a result of which “Russia has become smaller on the globe, and Europe is visually larger” ... Well, there’s some kind of childhood, right word.

Nevertheless, some spiteful critics found a reason for everyone in this to declare: “Russia for Belarus is going“ into the sunset ”. Is it really? What did Alexander Lukashenko really achieve, which actually broke the project of integration of our countries: the declared “independence” or the beginning of the process that will lead to the inevitable political “decline” of himself?

Dangerous Dreams

Of course, the very idea that he can rotate the Earth at his discretion is probably very close to Alexander Grigoryevich, who has too firmly taken root in the role of an omnipotent and eternal sovereign. It’s only that his self-confidence has recently begun to take on absolutely grotesque, somewhere even tragicomic forms. Recently, at a meeting with the Head of the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs of Switzerland, Ignazio Cassis, who arrived in Minsk on an official visit, Lukashenko took it and said that “he does not mind that Belarus is called eastern Switzerland”! (It is interesting who and when called her that?!) Like, his country has a “Swiss reputation” because it “always maintains neutrality,” and, in particular, thanks to a “decent attitude with other countries.” (Hussars, keep quiet!) That's just, the "old man" complained, there are no mountains in Belarus, and as a result there are no resorts that attract crowds of tourists. Well, yes ... And also - Swiss watches, cheese, and, most importantly - banks, without which the neutrality and independence of this country in the twentieth century and there would be no memory. Cassis, pretty dumbfounded by such a frivolous comparison, was saved, apparently, only by the tough school of a career diplomat. Somehow coping with emotions, the Swiss replied that “he doesn’t take offense at what was said” and even considers it an honor that Minsk takes an example from his homeland. Then he condescended to recognition: some similarities really exist. Both countries are surrounded on all sides by much larger and stronger powers, with which it is vitally important for them to skillfully conduct business and “establish strong political communication ”... Alas, it seems that Alexander Grigoryevich missed the last sentence.

Well, Lukashenko would have limited himself to shocking visiting diplomats. The President, nevertheless, can be said in his own right ... Unfortunately, the head of state seems to be really convinced that Belarus is a kind of “pearl of Europe”, due to which it is for the favor and sympathy of the “keeper” of this jewel (that is - him personally) are ready to compete all around. At the same time, he manages to point blank not to see that for the West he, as he was the “last dictator,” remains so to them. Minsk local politicians are now courting, seducing with vague hints and vague promises solely because they still see the danger of its unification with Moscow. This is best seen from the hilarious “stuffing” from Bloomberg, whose correspondent (obviously sitting under the table of the meeting room in Sochi) told the world that Putin offered Lukashenko no more, no less than “creating a superpower”, merging the two countries together . You can’t imagine funnier! Russia and so a world power and the addition of the neighboring territory, population, or, say, industry, will not turn it into a “super" one. Tea, we are not integrating with China ... Such nonsense has already been decisively refuted by Dmitry Peskov, who is probably a little better at controlling the situation than US journalists, but the West is not appeasing: well, how will they unite ?! Yes, the prospect for these gentlemen looks extremely unpleasant. And it’s not so in terms of directly merging the potential of Moscow and Minsk, as in the sense of a precedent, which is, in fact, the first real step towards the restoration of either the USSR or the Russian Empire. This is what they are afraid to tremble. However, even for such reasons, no one is going to “write to his bourgeoisie” Alexander Grigoryevich. And to help his country too.

Oil bluff

The best indicator that this is true is the situation that has developed around oil supplies to Belarus. Not so long ago, Lukashenko himself, and senior officials compelled to assiduously assent to him, poured left and right with the hottest assurances: “Yes, we! Yes, we have ... Yes, we only want to - and this oil will have nowhere to go! The whole world lined up in front of the gates of the Mozyr Oil Refinery, it’s just waiting for an invitation ... ”However, in practice, everything turned out to be completely wrong: it was enough to dry the oil pipe coming from Russia, and the white polar fox with everything famous name. Belneftekhim (solely “to diversify supplies and provide for the domestic market,” according to its representatives), has already begun to insolently select technological oil. So far, it seems, from those branches of the Druzhba oil trunk pipeline that are not involved in the transit of Russian oil to Western consumers. “This is our oil, it is in our pipes on our territory!” - Belarusians proudly declare, slowly shaking “black gold”, which was not intended for them at all. And in general - Belneftekhim is now “considering” oil supplies from Ukraine, from Poland, the Baltic countries, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. "Soon we are!" "Soon with us" ... And so on. In fact, the only deal Minsk managed to really crank up was the purchase of 80 thousand tons of oil, which, if it does reach Belarus via Lithuanian Klaipeda, will prevent the Naftan refinery from bending. All! The rest is Russian deliveries, which some of our companies carry out at their own risk. In fact, a drop in the ocean.

The true, extremely unfortunate picture is revealed in the revelations of the Deputy Prime Minister of Belarus Dmitry Krutoy, who honestly admitted no later than February 11 this year: Minsk has no real contract for the supply of “black gold” from any sources! The word is right, even somewhere it’s a pity that this official becomes, desperately trying to execute his party on the motive “Everything is fine, beautiful marquise”: “Such interest arose in everyone in our country! It's not bad! Negotiations are ongoing all the time. There are no contracts yet, but all this may appear. Just while all the time something falls off ... "Hussars, be silent, I said! Lukashenko will have everything - both contracts and oil. There is already interest! But ... falls off. And everywhere and constantly. The US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, not so long ago, vowed to promise to provide Belarus with 100% oil, apparently, too. In any case, flotillas of tankers tearing across the Atlantic under star-striped flags, trying to help Minsk, something has not yet been observed on the horizon. Oil from Russia will come sooner or later. Wanted world prices? You will get them! At the same time, judging by the available information, from now on, Minsk will have to deal exclusively with small companies that have arrived for every ruble, sorry in a word, they will be strangled. The Big Five of the Russian oil industry is inclined to consider Belarus, which has recently become excessively capricious and picky, exclusively, as a territory of transit to the West. Lukashenko will have oil. But he can definitely forget about the “beloved emirates” that were sweet to his heart, which allowed him to keep the country in a state of relative satiety and stability for so long. It fell off forever ...

Inevitable outcome

The “stretch” that Alexander Grigoryevich ultimately arranged for himself would hardly allow him to remain in balance, albeit unstable, for a long time. Even with all the mastery of his political acrobatics ... Return to the Kremlin with a "guilty head"? Alas, you will not return the destroyed one. Surely, Vladimir Vladimirovich, and other persons from those on whom the burden of making global decisions rests, have already made conclusions that are extremely unpleasant for Alexander Grigoryevich. And what will the return of relations "to one’s own circles" lead to? To the rejection of the "tax maneuver"? To new concessions that will benefit Belarus and to the detriment of Russia? No, we didn’t want brotherly - now it will be fair. Or - in all severity. That's how it goes. A complete break with Russia - right up to the scandalous "divorce" with the division of joint property under the motto: "Friendship - apart" ?! This will be pure suicide for Minsk in general, and for Lukashenko in the first place. Moreover, stopped oil refineries, soaring fuel prices and a rapidly emptying state budget by themselves will create such a social tension in the country that it will be easier for everyone to turn into mass performances (and there’s more than enough of them!). If Washington finally and for certain believes in the fact that Alexander Grigoryevich no longer looms the formidable “shadow” of Moscow, he will immediately be let down by all the local “opposition” and other “zmagars”. By the way, they have recently become quite emboldened and insolent just by the connivance of the “father”.

I don’t know about the oil, but Pompeo Minsk will definitely provide the filler for bottles with the so-beloved street “freedom fighters” of American training “Molotov cocktails”. Fortunately, very soon there will be a suitable reason - the next presidential election. But this time, the West may categorically refuse to recognize them, declaring them “falsified” and “rigged”. Well, and then - according to the well-established scenario ... It's another matter that such a turn of events does not smile at Russia in any form. Enough with us some "non-brothers" - dummies by our side. Yes, and people in Belarus are good - I feel sorry for them. An alliance with Belarus is necessary for our country - not so in economic interests, how many in geopolitical, and not so much for solving immediate issues, as with an eye to long-term prospects. In fact, Minsk has no choice as such. Given the current situation in the world, there are only two ways - either to go hand in hand with Russia into the future, tying ourselves with it in a more or less close alliance, or - to become a blazing and impoverished colony of the United States, like neighboring Ukraine. Oil is the third thing. In fact, the stakes are much higher here ...
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  1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 14 February 2020 11: 03
    I have a classmate - an extreme traveler. Soon the sand will be pouring in, and everything is on a motorcycle on vacation in Russia. Last summer I met a truck with Belarusian numbers on the track. And he asks: “They say you have problems in Belarus, the situation is“ tense ”, Lukashenka is“ queer? ”The driver twisted his finger at his temple and said:“ This is your problem, but everything is fine with us. ”
    Lukashenka is supported at the household level, but we only speak obscenities about Putin at the household level. Well, maybe only for some - "in ........ the breath stopped."
    1. Gadley Offline Gadley
      Gadley (Sergei) 18 February 2020 09: 53
      If Putin is harassed at every Belarusian corner, this is fixed in the brain at the household level.
    2. Cheburashk Offline Cheburashk
      Cheburashk (Vladimir) 19 February 2020 07: 04
      So what's the problem? Go there for permanent residence and live there.

      The fish is looking where it’s deeper, but where the man is better!
  2. Midshipman Offline Midshipman
    Midshipman (Sergei) 14 February 2020 11: 58
    Matom is called those to whom in life acrimony and inner limitation of life does not give. Themselves flawed for themselves. If you think you deserve more, go and prove it with your actions, and not noah on forums about "bad Putin".
  3. The comment was deleted.
  4. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
    Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 14 February 2020 16: 10
    If Lukashenko retains the statehood of Belarus, he only needs to erect a monument to Belarusians for this. No matter how much the author would like the reverse, and not only him. I think that Ukraine and Belarus for normal development need to be left alone.
    1. Midshipman Offline Midshipman
      Midshipman (Sergei) 14 February 2020 18: 15
      Sorry, but who bothers them, except themselves? Well, yes, they are at the forefront of the confrontation between the collective West and Russia, well, sorry, this is a geographical fact. And if you ignore this or take the wrong side, then, of course, it can be excruciatingly painful. And so, please, no one holds hands - at least a civil war, at least independence: after all, pennies must be prosperous, but Russia does not give them, so bad.
    2. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
      A.Lex (Secret information) 14 February 2020 18: 47
      Ndaaa, ykry have already been left alone - the economy is in ruins, almost all production has stood up, the communal apartment has soared to the heights that s / n is enough for it ... That’s enough.
      If you leave Belarus alone, then it will hold out a little longer (it will have a little more supply, despite the poorer "inheritance" from the USSR, and they stole there not as undermined, unlike the "ancient").
      Well, what will happen next - history will show. She had punished memory loss before. And the Ukrainians forgot this ... Now the Belarusians, it seems, decided to repeat the experience of the Ukrainians ... It's a pity, of course, but ... let's see, in general.
      1. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
        Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 14 February 2020 19: 51
        About the economy, etc. - watch less TV at night. And why did they all shy away from our care, it never occurred to me?
        1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
          A.Lex (Secret information) 14 February 2020 21: 26
          It came, Grisha, it came. And the answer is a long time ago - we ourselves don’t know what we want, don’t know where we are going, we don’t understand what we should get at the exit.
          One thing we know for sure - we will never have friendship with the West, for for us we are GOOD and slaves.
          1. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
            Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 15 February 2020 09: 10
            So keep moving on ...
        2. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
          A.Lex (Secret information) 14 February 2020 21: 37
          And about TV - but there is no difference what and where to watch it. Everywhere the same thing. Do not listen to you! laughing
        3. Cheburashk Offline Cheburashk
          Cheburashk (Vladimir) 19 February 2020 07: 07
          And where do you get such information that they ALL shy away, or do you, as a journalist of Bloomberg, receive information?
    3. nznz Offline nznz
      nznz (Igor) 14 February 2020 23: 49
      Substitution of concepts. Old Man, like a true Komsomol member, wants to eat a fish and ride a motorcycle. Those. and take oil at a cheap price, and trick the West. It is logical that then take the oil, not as a brother and friend, but as an outside independent buyer. But no, the old man got embroiled, lying to the internal consumer about the fact that he does not want to kneel. Well, don’t stand, but then not begging, all this is ugly. In principle, the question here is clear. He will follow the scenario of Ukraine - he will be imprisoned like Gaddafi, will not be friends in the Russian Federation - that means he will be friends with the West - there is nowhere for him to go, and again this means a sharp drop in living standards and an increase in people's discontent, a quiet life of dealers will end. The question arises - where do the money from the oil supplied by the Russian Federation go or go? Why no new enterprises have been created for the difference in price. Such that it would be good to live without oil. Alas, nothing new - everything is like in Ukraine.
      1. Caretaker Offline Caretaker
        Caretaker (Leonid) 15 February 2020 11: 27
        Quote: nznz
        Why no new enterprises have been created for the difference in price.

        Because the old ones work, unlike us.
        1. DISSIKRAT Offline DISSIKRAT
          DISSIKRAT (Sergei) 15 February 2020 16: 19
          As for "unlike us" - there is a site "MADE BY US".
          1. Caretaker Offline Caretaker
            Caretaker (Leonid) 15 February 2020 17: 12
            Quote: DISSIKRAT
            About - "unlike us"! There is a site "MADE BY US!

            You need to look not at what you managed to save, but at what is lost.
            Have you heard about ZIL or "Red Proletarian"? Have you been to the Kirov plant?
            Now try to name the industrial giants that closed in Belarus?
    4. Gadley Offline Gadley
      Gadley (Sergei) 18 February 2020 09: 59
      And whoever bothers them - Putin Maidan, or something, forced them to do it yourself with a mustache. And the Belarusian Old Man - you always need to follow the language - a saying -

      Do not spit in the well from which you have to get drunk.
  5. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 14 February 2020 19: 06
    I looked at the tiniest statements of this state husband, I wanted to speak out myself. As you listen, it’s on your knees, ....... An unbending fighter for banknotes.

    1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
      A.Lex (Secret information) 14 February 2020 21: 36
      You will help us, as a family, but do not bother to live - we are independent ...

      The contract with the Chinese was terminated ...

      ... correctly - as they understood that everything that will be earned by these enterprises will go there too - to China. And Belarusians - waste, spoiled land and water (read - losses) ... even though there were enough brains ...
  6. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
    A.Lex (Secret information) 14 February 2020 22: 06
    In general, not “Russia for Belarus goes“ into the sunset ”, but Russia has gone from Belarus over the horizon (throwing a tow rope).
  7. Wanderer039 Offline Wanderer039
    Wanderer039 14 February 2020 23: 18
    No alliance with Minsk will ever work out and if the author does not see this, his problems ... The Ukrainian scenario is already inevitable, especially since the people there are similar ... There are the same zapadentsy under the flags of the Principality of Lithuania ... And these are red -white in Belarus, do not differ from the red-blacks in Ukraine in their attitude to the Russian Federation ...
  8. Petro42 Offline Petro42
    Petro42 (Edward) 15 February 2020 00: 19
    We don’t really expect any alliance with Russia. The Belarusian president does not need this, who will he be, the chairman of the Union Parliament, and his successor will go to bow to the capital? And who are his children? Nobody ... He, his family, all officials and local oligarchs will lose everything.
    The people of Belarus, by and large, do not care. Russians think that every second in Belarus dreams of becoming a resident of the Belarusian region. Nothing like this. Everyone understood that the Union State is possible only in the option of Belarus joining Russia as a region. It will either be so, or it will look different, but in reality it is. Union by union, brotherhood by brotherhood, and this, excuse me .... A little bit not what was originally declared.
    And no one will remove Old Man here. He suits everyone.
    1. gore Offline gore
      gore (Alexander) 15 February 2020 06: 04
      Eduard, and even the Belarusian region? We have the "Tatar region", "Yakutsk region", "Chukotka region" and what? Does anyone live worse than YOU in Belarus? Explain how the Belarusian differs from the Russian? For me personally, in my youth, the difference was observed only then (and then only temporarily) when I listened to "Pesnyarov" performing their songs in "trasyanka". Everything! Otherwise - there are ABSOLUTELY no differences!
      Just Old Man, ascended the throne, constantly heats up this topic (Belarusian) with only one purpose - so that being already at death, have time to put Kolya on the throne. He doesn't give a damn about the rest ...
      1. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
        Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 15 February 2020 09: 06
        And in honor of what should it become an area of ​​another state? One option, who desperately needed this and seems to have turned out a bummer, we are well aware. And who else really needs it and why?
    2. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 15 February 2020 11: 17
      We don’t really expect any alliance with Russia. The Belarusian president does not need this, who will he be, the chairman of the Union Parliament, and his successor will go to bow to the capital? And who are his children? Nobody ... He, his family, all officials and local oligarchs will lose everything.

      As I understand it, we are talking about the interests of Fatherland, his children and close associates? This has nothing to do with the interests of the whole people.

      The people of Belarus, by and large, do not care.

      Ukrainian also did not care and your fate will also be decided by others who care and will not be enviable.

      Russians think that every second in Belarus dreams of becoming a resident of the Belarusian region. Nothing like this. Everyone understood that the Union State is possible only in the option of Belarus joining Russia as a region. It will either be so, or it will look different, but in reality it is.

      In fact, everything again comes down to the interests of the local "elite", its status. It is not necessary to enter the region, for this the Union State was created, the legislation may differ in different republics, but at the same time the budget is also different. But this does not suit the "elite", they want to be free and independent, while existing on a common economic basis, which can be successfully converted into a good profit. In fact, they are fighting for their own selfish interests, hiding behind concern for the people. How the "elite" fights for "their own blood", you can see the example of neighboring Ukraine.
      If you want to be completely independent, no one is against, this is your decision, but the budget is also independent, as you rightly noted:

      Union by union, brotherhood by brotherhood, and this, excuse me ....

      A bit not what was originally declared.

      And what, in your opinion, was declared initially? What changed?

      And no one will remove Old Man here. He suits everyone.

      The president is not removed, he is elected, you have been living separately for 30 years, and you talk about it as an appointed official. Not used to, not yet aware of? Once satisfied, live with him, no one is trying to force you. Chose - live with it. It's your decision.
      PS For a better understanding of Lukashenko’s position, a fresh statement, listen .... everything is about money and nothing about union and fraternity. Power and money are all that interests him.

    3. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
      A.Lex (Secret information) 16 February 2020 12: 39
      Edward, and if (eventually sooner or later) Belarus comes to power in the SG? Do you think we will have to tear the hair on our heads? I don’t care who will lead the country. The main thing is not this, but that the country is developing. For you, as I understand it, there is a DIFFERENCE who will lead - if not Belarus, then SG will not be. Are you a nationalist? The accumulations of the Family, officials, oligarchs, and not the common people, are important to you?
      And why, in fact, the "Belarusian region"? Why not the Republic? We have Chechen, Tatar, Bashkir ... many of which, but you are not satisfied that you will be one of us? It is more important for you to follow the path of the former. Ukrainian SSR? Well, we are not your helpers here ...
      PS ... You are deliberately distorting the REAL state of affairs - there is no question of any INCLUSION. It was about MUTUAL INTEGRATION. And the fact that something seems to you there - some kind of "absorption", "entry" ... these are only YOUR PERSONAL FANTASIES that have nothing to do with reality. It is immediately clear that you have not read a single document on the creation of the SG.
  9. Roarv Offline Roarv
    Roarv (Robert) 15 February 2020 09: 22
    Old Man rules the state for 30 years, buying mineral resources at Russian prices and processing, sells their derivatives at world prices ..... They have been accustomed to a free nipple for 30 years, now they have been excommunicated from a free nipple and have become objectionable .... How to get oil, gas , preferences, then at Russian prices, how to give permission for the military base of the Russian Federation, we are a separate country from Russia .....
    Old Man - Charismatic Man ..
    But on the basis of the accustomed freebie and age, he does not realize that if the Russian Federation simply stops buying Belarusian goods, then the Old Man will get the Maidan .... and he will have to flee ... They did not give a discount on minerals, but the transit market is mussels, shrimps, apples, cheeses, etc. they didn’t close it .... Threatening that I wouldn’t let the oil flow through the pipe and turn it on ....- The old man doesn’t realize that it’s impossible to transport such volumes of oil from the Baltic states ...
    Old Man, it's time to get off the neck of taxpayers - the Budget of Russia ...
    Our Government to invite the Belarusian authorities to hold a referendum on the unification of the two states .... Then, for Old Man Lukashenko and Russia, the Moment of Truth will come ...
    1. Caretaker Offline Caretaker
      Caretaker (Leonid) 15 February 2020 11: 35
      Why is there a "military base" in the Union State? Most of the systems are already integrated.
      Imagine that Belarus will offer to create a "military base" on the territory of the Kaliningrad region? What for?
  10. Caretaker Offline Caretaker
    Caretaker (Leonid) 15 February 2020 11: 20
    Quote: Midshipman
    ... If you think that you deserve more - go and prove it by actions, and not noah on the forums ...

    A strange suggestion for a forum member.
  11. Caretaker Offline Caretaker
    Caretaker (Leonid) 15 February 2020 12: 04
    It is necessary to manage to quarrel with the closest (essentially the only) real ally.
    As regards oil, it’s generally funny, in a free retelling "our oil industry does not belong to the state and we have no opportunity to influence them."
    It is interesting (as a citizen of the Russian Federation) to whom are the proceeds, not taxes, namely, revenues from the sale of oil?
    The answer to the lie in the liberal (and not so) mass media about Belarus is generally off scale. Something like "we have freedom of speech." Doesn't it look like anything? That's right, the answers in Inosmi about the requests of Russia. Charlie doesn't come to mind?
    Pressure on Belarus comes both from the "West" and from the "fifth column" in Russia, with the aim of forcing them to transfer the enterprises of the Republic of Bashkortostan to management, moreover, to foreign owners, just as oil, aluminum and many other highly profitable companies in the Russian Federation were transferred.
  12. turbris Offline turbris
    turbris (Boris) 15 February 2020 21: 56
    It was necessary for a long time to stop deceiving the peoples of both countries - this very "union state" - no one needs it except Lukashenka, who is cutting down his joint budget. Therefore, it is necessary to switch to normal relations with Belarus, as with any other EAEU state, and not to fool each other with some kind of "special" relations.