Moscow has time before the summer to transfer Minsk to the “American model” of relations

Since Soviet times, our country has actively subsidized the economy "Union" republics to the detriment of their own regions, as stated on the eve of the speaker of the State Duma Volodin. We know what this led to: the Baltic States, Georgia, Ukraine and others were the first to jump out of the USSR, and now they are leaders in anti-Russian sentiments. Our geopolitical adversary, the United States of America, on the other hand, with minimal political investments manage to convert them into fabulous economic profits.

Practice has convincingly proved that the “American model” works, but the Russian one does not, and even more, it ultimately turns against us. Will somehow manage to reverse this trend in relations with our last official ally, Belarus?

Regarding the current "oil war" of Moscow and Minsk it is said already a lot. The main reason is that Belarus in every possible way avoids fulfillment of its integration obligations within the Union State. Both sides are to some extent guilty of the conflict: instead of stepping up integration processes in the "fat years" when oil prices were high and there were no Western sanctions, the Kremlin did not pay due attention to this most important strategic task, stupidly missing out on auspicious time.

At that time, the likelihood of maximum and voluntary rapprochement of the two fraternal states was as high as possible. Instead, they “integrated” Belarus in Moscow when Russia’s affairs became bad: the country has been under Western sanctions for more than five years, oil prices are threatening to decline, Gazprom’s energy projects in Europe are under serious pressure from the United States. Do not be surprised that in Minsk they kick back from unification, as they know how.

However, we will not justify too much the position of President Lukashenko. He personally committed himself to integration within the Union State in the era of Boris Yeltsin. The essence of allied duty is precisely that it must be performed, even when one does not really want to. Moreover, Minsk is very well settled on the use of inexpensive Russian oil, which gave rise to the “Belarusian economic miracle”.

So, let's talk about oil. Alexander G. made a lot of resonant statements on this subject, which must be commented on. For example, he demanded some “compensation” from Russia because of the tax maneuver she conducted in the oil sector:

I would like to hear about the mechanisms for compensating for the losses that our country inevitably suffers during this period through no fault of its own. The requirements are known - not a single resident of Belarus, not a single enterprise should feel the consequences of all kinds of maneuvers of our partners.

A rather strange demand from the president of a country that is evading integration within the Union State. Logically, if Russia and Belarus become a kind of united state, then Minsk has the right to demand compensation. If he refuses integration, then all the economic problems of Belarus become its own, sovereign.

Next, you need to pay attention to a certain cunning of President Lukashenko, who claims that Russia does not sell him oil even at world prices:

What we are asking now from the Russians (they got into a pose there and are trying to put us on our knees): if you cannot supply oil to us duty-free in the Eurasian Union (replaced by a tax maneuver, found fools), sell us at world prices.

The reality looks a little different. Each year, Russia undertakes to “provide an opportunity to pump” 24 million tons to Belarus. That is, not to deliver, but the ability to pump, which is called the indicative balance of oil. Of these 24, 18 million were actually supplied, since this is the maximum capacity of Belarusian refineries. Russia is ready to continue selling oil, but Minsk itself refuses it, believing that it is being sold at an inflated price.

But this is not true. A ton of oil on the world market today costs $ 477,6. Belarus still has a discount in the amount of the export duty, so for it the price of oil is 399,1 dollars. President Lukashenko considers himself robbed due to the fact that earlier the export duty was 82,5 dollars per ton, and now - 78,5 dollars. All fuss started because of four dollars difference. The tax maneuver will last another five years, and the duty will be gradually reduced until zero. Minsk has already calculated its impending losses and is demanding compensation from Moscow. But should Russia do this?

Just the day before, the Belarusian Foreign Ministry stated that the country would not “go in cycles in cooperation” with Russia. Given how warmly Minsk received the head of the US State Department, it sounds very promising. Mike Pompeo promised Belarusians as much oil as they need. True, it is estimated that “black gold” from the USA will be without exaggeration “gold”: it will cost Minsk about a third more expensive than Russian raw materials.

Meanwhile, time began to play simultaneously against Minsk and against Moscow. The next presidential election is coming in Belarus this summer, in which Alexander Grigoryevich needs to demonstrate to voters the convincing result in the oil talks. This is a fairly developed agrarian power, which is facilitated by artificially maintained low prices for fuel and fuels and lubricants. The conversion of refineries to expensive imported oil will hit production costs, which will negatively affect the price for consumers.

Already there is information that at gas stations there is a restriction on the sale of fuel in one hand. This will affect not only Belarus, but also in neighboring Ukraine. Unfortunately, these events will have a negative effect for Russia. On the one hand, domestic oil companies will be able to earn extra money. On the other hand, according to some studies, pro-Russian sentiments sharply decreased in Belarus. For a country that is fairly clearly divided into Western and Eastern parts, such a shift can be very unfavorable, since Russia will be assigned the blame for all subsequent problems of the local population.

It turns out that the "oil war" has a deadline in the form of presidential elections, which will be held in Belarus this summer. By about this time, it will become clear whether Moscow managed to successfully transfer relations with the last ally to a new foundation, or if everything goes according to the worst-case scenario, which may result in the Maidan.
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  1. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 7 February 2020 12: 07
    Both sides are to some extent guilty of the conflict: instead of stepping up integration processes in the "fat years" when oil prices were high and there were no Western sanctions, the Kremlin did not pay due attention to this most important strategic task, stupidly missing out on auspicious time.

    This is a somewhat simplified view of the integration problem. And the "fat years" with oil prices in this case is not a determining factor. For ordinary citizens, the issue of integration, in the everyday sense, is practically not worth it. It doesn't matter what kind of passport you have - Russian or Belarusian, if the rights are the same. Integration in the economy and politics has stalled, that is, in fact, this is a dispute between two business entities, the dispute is about the "share" in the economy for the ruling elite and the ability to make independent decisions on the external circuit, and one is difficult to implement without the other. The merger is disadvantageous for the Belarusian "clan", because the volumes of the economy are incomparable. They can only be influenced by economic pressure, so to speak, directed in the right direction, which inevitably leads to a conflict situation. And since the economy is very closely interconnected, the response could be very painful, for example, the MZKT ceases to supply chassis for the Russian Strategic Missile Forces and the "nuclear shield" is bursting at the seams. It was for this reason that forced dating continued, the conflict was simply unacceptable. A similar situation is not only with Belarus, the construction of a new cosmodrome also began not out of boredom, the Elbasy could prohibit launches at any time - and the space industry no longer exists. And how easy it is to influence him, you can look at the not-so-long history of a voyage overseas, when, if I’m not mistaken, 40 billion was seized. Elbasy rushed overseas, the arrest was lifted, but there was a military transit through Kazakhstan. Now the situation is changing, something tells me that in a couple of years there will be aggravation with Kazakhstan. What such aggravations lead to can be seen on the example of Ukraine, and this experience was taken into account.
    The Kremlin is not, as the author put it

    ... did not pay due attention to this most important strategic task, ineptly missing a favorable time.

    - he was preparing, at the moment But Father has nothing to oppose, except for the threats to "freeze his ears". The "oil war" itself is only an instrument of policy implementation, and for Russia its significance is not great, which cannot be said about Belarus. And the moment to start it was not chosen by chance, there is no smell of spontaneity here, everything is calculated several moves ahead, so no deadline, I think, the variant with the "Belovezhsky Maidan" is also calculated.
    1. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
      A.Lex (Secret information) 8 February 2020 14: 02
      123, one more question - training of elites. Ameri do not bother at all - inviting everyone in a row. And from allied countries and from enemy countries. Huge sums are allocated there for these cases ... We ... we have no matter how much they talk about it - but things are still there. And what to talk about, what kind of education for teaching students from abroad, if we teach OWNs, when we get out of universities "RYZHYMA SHOOTERS" !!! A mess in universities is a mess in power (that's what we get in the power of the Chuvash Ignatievs and other boyars-bar) ... the results of such "training" will then come back to haunt us in the future and more than once. How many times have already been spoken and negotiated - SOVIET teachers and professors are still alive, RETURN EVERYTHING BACK, you bastards ... Otherwise, with such leaders, sooner or later, we will still lose the country, because all these "graduates" see nothing but their ambitions and crippled selfishness ... but the main thing for them in life is BABLO !!! ... and not people ...
      1. 123 Offline 123
        123 (123) 8 February 2020 14: 23
        A.Lex (Secret Information)
        Regarding the training of students, I fully support your opinion, it is necessary to carry out such work, then the elite grows out of them, most often loyal to the country where they studied. Of course, there are exceptions; Margarita Simonyan, for example, studied in the USA. belay Of course, we have foreign students, but there are not many of them. That far from everything is smooth with education, I also agree, if it has come to the point that Shoigu selected the textbooks, which ones will be included in the program, which ones are not, the question is what Ming did then. education.
        True, this does not apply to this topic.
        Hi Eustace. hi
      2. A.Lex Offline A.Lex
        A.Lex (Secret information) 8 February 2020 14: 38
        PS ... and in order to return to the Soviet system of education and upbringing, you need to start from school. And make it an EDUCATIONAL institution, and not an office for the provision of "educational services", where AFTER school, parents should explain the topic to children + "learning on the Internet" ...
        And to introduce DRAGONS methods (up to dismissal with a "wolf ticket", or even landings) for those who will put a spoke in their wheels, shouting about "personal freedom" and other "freedoms" ...
      3. Valentine Offline Valentine
        Valentine (Valentin) 8 February 2020 16: 21
        Our, Alex, scientists of the "elite" look at the stone Kremlin, but they see the Statue of Liberty in diamonds, at worst - Big Ben, and the educational level that we had in the USSR, we have long lost, and are unlikely to catch up when- something - the brains of our overage youth have already been reflashed with "European values", and only a new "iron curtain" will save us from all this, but what about the foreign "dough" of our moneybags, "hard" earned by our crooks in the "light 90s e ", because they will partisan and snap back, then" revolutionary sailors of iron ore "will be needed ...
  2. Igor Pavlovich Offline Igor Pavlovich
    Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 7 February 2020 12: 48
    The right actions lead to the right results. If the actions were wrong, then why blame the bad result ??? You need to correct and learn from literate ...
    1. Valentine Offline Valentine
      Valentine (Valentin) 7 February 2020 20: 29
      No, you’re wrong, it’s time for us to learn from the arrogant, I won’t call them, you know them very well, but if you study, it’s enough for us who are wise and literate even under Gorbachev and Yeltsin and still hiccups.
  3. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 7 February 2020 13: 15
    Quote: 123
    The Kremlin is not, as the author put it
    ... did not pay due attention to this most important strategic task, ineptly missing a favorable time.
    - he was preparing, at the moment But Father has nothing to oppose, except for the threats to "freeze his ears".

    HPP? Again? belay
    1. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 7 February 2020 14: 32
      HPP? Again?

      Is HPP something like ABYRVALG? recourse
  4. Bitter Offline Bitter
    Bitter (Gleb) 7 February 2020 14: 40
    ... in the era of Boris Yeltsin.

    A drunkard in a family is a grief, for tomorrow it no longer remembers what happened yesterday and with a bayonet (glass) at the ready makes other “decisive” decisions.
    But on the other hand, everyone else "in the family" can relax and do their own thing, and not what is spelled out in the duties, contracts and obligations.

    The Kremlin did not pay due attention to this most important strategic task, ineptly missing a favorable time.

    There was no need for him to do this, and why? Where should they (Belarusians, and others too) go from the submarine, but in practice, "unexpected" alternatives suddenly emerged.
    Thus, the absence of painstaking and consistent work, no matter in which direction, means:

    that the “American model” works, but the Russian one doesn’t, even more so, in the end it turns against us.

    Will somehow manage to reverse this trend in relations with our last official ally, Belarus?

    It seems that the "upper classes", on both sides of the border, have long been reluctant to integrate, and the "lower classes", by and large, no one will ask. Thus, the goal of demarcation and disintegration has almost been achieved.
  5. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 7 February 2020 16: 16
    If Russia is sorry for money for NPOs in neighboring countries, it is not surprising that such a result.
  6. Roarv Offline Roarv
    Roarv (Robert) 7 February 2020 19: 00
    Based on economic priorities, it is enough for these relatives from all over the CIS to give concessions and preferences, they all consider themselves self-sufficient and sovereignly independent, hold the flag in their hands and tailwind, restrict access to the markets of all sectors of the Russian Federation, give all trucking to Belarus, Armenia, Georgia, the Baltic states, Kazakhstan, and imposed their truckers fees, tariffs, fines and zombies insist on raising incomes ....
  7. Rinat Offline Rinat
    Rinat (Rinat) 8 February 2020 14: 49
    Lukashenka constantly calls relations between Russia and Belarus brotherly, but he does not walk like a brother. Constantly demands, promises to do something within the framework of the union treaty, receives what Russia has promised, but forgets about his part of "brotherly relations" and pretends to be an innocent girl whom the bad uncle wants to deceive, to put it mildly.
  8. GRF Online GRF
    GRF 8 February 2020 20: 34
    And with what discount does Belarus sell its seafood to Russia?
    There is a visa-free visa for Russians to many countries and without any obligations ... For mutually beneficial trade, there are all kinds of WTO, the EAEU customs union ... Amendments to the Constitution are the main thing, most of which agree that national legislation should be above international, and with the union state that, the reverse process ... we provide military assistance to Syria without any union state there ...

    I understand that all this is pathetic crutches in comparison with a normal, full-fledged state, but is it worth building a new USSR? Why are they wounding this wound? Why produce new bureaucrats? Why step on the same rake? Invest in soyuznichka, what would he later have Brexit?
    When Georgia had a question of life or death, there was no question of building a union state there, they simply became an equal part of Russia, like the Tatars, Chechens, Buryats ...

    I am for the Russians and Belarusians to be together, but what would it be one state (it doesn’t matter who joins whom, we join them or they, we can come up with a third name for the common state, have been renamed more than once), but not two that can scatter when difficult times come ...

    We often sell abroad for less than for ourselves (for example, electricity to China), and we need to deal with this vicious practice first. After all, one of the main requirements when entering the WTO was to sell their gas for themselves at world prices, that is, in the same way as they did, by which they killed their economic attractiveness and competitiveness. At what prices does China sell rare earths to itself and for export? And this is one of the reasons for the economic miracle of China.

    For some reason, it is believed that if we leave, we will lose the market, so it’s better to sell cheaply for SLE than to keep (hold the sale) resources at home. And this - well, you, not a betrayal of the nat. interests, because for SLE jeans and chewing gum they buy for the people, and before that there were also legs.

    Yes, there will be no war, as long as everything is squandered, but Belarusians, Ukrainians, Poles, and others who want and get our resources for nothing and will not want to become with us are right with this approach ...
  9. arkasha2805 Offline arkasha2805
    arkasha2805 (Sergei) 9 February 2020 18: 30
    But does Russia and Russian citizens actually need this and why ???
  10. arkasha2805 Offline arkasha2805
    arkasha2805 (Sergei) 9 February 2020 18: 34
    It's stupid to bet on Belarus, it makes no sense to build something with such a government! There must be a different move!
  11. Tramp1812 Offline Tramp1812
    Tramp1812 (Tramp 1812) 13 February 2020 15: 02
    With the collapse of the USSR, CMEA and the Warsaw Pact collapsed at the same time. The socialist structure of the Russian economy into a market economy was painfully reconstructed, the country faced internal challenges in the Caucasus and Tatarstan, power swayed in the person of Yeltsin in the literal and figurative sense. The relations of the executive and legislative branches of government escalated to armed confrontation .... etc. Under these conditions, Russia, of course, was looking for at least some, even formal, allies. That turned out to be Belarus, from the time of Lukashenko, of course. So they contained. All the successes of this country were based on the Russian market, the only one where all Belarusian products that had low cost came true at market prices. Again, due to Russian free energy sources. Hence the social guarantees of Belarus, which the Russians admired so much. Lukashenko honestly lied that he was going to integrate with the Russian Federation. I never intended to. And the Russian Federation also did not intend to integrate with Belarus on equal terms, but proposed to join the regions as subjects of the Federation. Then Russia strengthened, including shifting the economy to market rails. It has become unprofitable to subsidize Belarus. And then there are all these misfortunes with oil prices, sanctions, the integration of Crimea, the help of the Donbass, Syria ... Bolivar can not stand the two. Hard times are objectively waiting for Belarus. They don’t rush to Europe: there is no such anti-Russian population pumping as in the Baltic states, Georgia, Ukraine there. Minsk has only two options: to Europe, where they do not expect it, and in the Russian Federation - on the terms of Russia. But the current status quo Butsko cannot be maintained. And you can’t resist it yourself. But where Belarus swings does not depend on it. And from the USA and the Russian Federation. As in the situation with Ukraine. Only with Ukraine they decided - 90% - towards the USA, 10% - towards the Russian Federation. With Belarus, given the small territory and mentality of the population, this will not happen. Or there, or here. An arrangement is possible that will remain neutral. I would like to.