“Iranian scenario” versus Gazprom: “SP-2” becomes long-term construction


At the end of 2019, Gazprom signed a new transit agreement with Ukraine. Gradually, more and more fragments of this agreement fall into open access, which make us grab onto the head of those who have become familiar with them. The affairs of our “national treasure” in the European gas market are going “like in a fairy tale”: the further, the worse.


We have to admit that having a good chance of winning the “gas war”, the monopolist ingloriously capitulated and signed a contract on enslaving conditions for himself for the next five years, naively believing that during this time he could put into operation the Nord Stream-2 bypass routes and Turkish Stream. What gives reason to be critical of, let me say, the “strategy” of Gazprom’s top managers?

So, in the first year, the gas company will have to pump 65 billion cubic meters of “blue fuel” through the Ukrainian gas transportation system. In the next four years - 40 billion cubic meters. Apparently, it was supposed that by that time Nord Stream-2 would come into operation.
Under these, so to speak, “calculations”, the monopolist’s leadership signed under the condition “download or pay”. According to him, the Russian company should coordinate daily with Kiev gas pumping in the amount of 178 million cubic meters. If Gazprom actually uses a smaller volume, then it will still have to pay for 178 million cubic meters.

So, over the past January, our “national treasure” pumped gas 70% less. Before the signing of the enslaving contract, this message should have been rejoiced, but, thanks to the leadership of the monopolist, Ukraine had to pay for 2,55 billion cubic meters for 5,518 billion cubic meters. Brilliant, you will not say anything.

Gazprom’s top managers signed up for this item, although the previous contract was completely different. According to the previous contract, the breakdown of the reserved volumes was carried out quarterly, so the company had the opportunity to maneuver: if necessary, reduce or increase the load of the transit pipe so as not to be fined. Now a state corporation can fly into money almost daily. And so it will be for the next five years.

But that is not all. If Gazprom needs to increase gas pumping volumes, they will have to be booked at higher rates. So, booking additional capacities per quarter will cost 1,1 times more expensive, per month - 1,2 times, per day - 1,45 times. It is estimated that the maximum rate increase will reach 45%.

And you have to book. The naive but highly paid leaders of the state-owned company expected, upon signing the agreement, to launch Nord Stream-2, which should deliver an additional 55 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe, in a maximum of a year. This is the fourth part of all the available volumes of the monopolist in the European market, which the Americans have clearly set their sights on.

At the end of 2019, President Trump imposed sanctions against the gas pipeline under construction, which can be completed literally in a matter of weeks. The contractor of Gazprom, the Swiss AllSeas Group SA, immediately quit her job and stole her vessels. Companies with experience and the ability to complete the gas pipeline can be counted on the fingers of one hand by a careless joiner, and not one of them will take up this contract.

There remains the only option - to complete the pipeline independently, but Russia does not have such experience, the existing specialized pipe-laying vessels are not equipped, or are engaged in other projects in the Far East. A lot of problems. President Putin cautiously promised to launch Nord Stream 2 in the first quarter of 2021, but now this is a big question.

So, referring to its sources in Washington, the German publication Handelsblatt reported that the United States is ready in February-March to adopt a new package of sanctions against Nord Stream-2. According to reports, restrictive measures may no longer be directed against construction contractors, but directly against European buyers of Russian gas.

This is the toughest "Iranian scenario" in relation to Gazprom. Obviously, it is precisely due to the knocking out of Nord Stream-2 that American LNG exporters intend to occupy this market share. Of course, Europe will not be delighted and will begin to look for workarounds, as is the case with Iranian oil, but the message is clear: the US is serious.

In the worst case scenario, Nord Stream-2 turns into a long-term construction, or it will not be completed at all, becoming a monument to the domestic “effective management”. And now let’s recall that from 2021 the volumes of gas contracted by Gazprom will decrease to 40 billion cubic meters, which will force the monopolist to pay for Ukraine’s services at higher rates. It’s very difficult to comment on this “strategy” of the leadership of the state corporation without a strong word. It is worth recalling that these of his "art" are funded from the federal budget.
Used photos: gazprom.com
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  1. Bulanov Offline
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 5 February 2020 11: 13
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    It can hardly be said that close-knit people are sitting in Gazprom. All these miscalculations were visible immediately after the announcement of the Treaty. Most likely, there is hidden support for the state of Ukraine from the Russian budget. And why this can be done, this is another question.
    1. kriten Offline
      kriten (Vladimir) 5 February 2020 11: 41
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      They were not far from Gazprom, but now they just sit down and gobble up and make mistake after mistake, not really worrying - the tsar forgives everything ... live and rejoice and do not blow a mustache. Although the version of the Kremlin’s support of today's Ukraine for all 5 years is noteworthy: even the arms didn’t interfere with delivering, financing the branches of our ATO banks. There is some indulgence of fascization of Ukraine and, in essence, the permanent betrayal of the Donetsk republics ....
  2. Port Offline
    Port 5 February 2020 11: 18
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    They will finish building, here Russia is not a hegemon not a decree.
  3. steelmaker Offline
    steelmaker 5 February 2020 11: 55
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    When brains are busy selling the MOTHERLAND, there is no time to think about the consequences! And so it will be, as long as PUTIN rules !!!!
    1. Natan bruk Online
      Natan bruk (Natan Bruk) 6 February 2020 04: 50
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      Port will send its ships for completion. Check and check you Americans :)))
  4. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 5 February 2020 12: 22
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    Quote: Port
    They will finish building, here Russia is not a hegemon not a decree.

    Sense to build if the purchase of gas falls under sanctions?
    1. GRF Offline
      GRF 5 February 2020 12: 31
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      The meaning of living? If we die anyway ...
    2. cmonman Offline
      cmonman (Garik Mokin) 5 February 2020 20: 18
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      Sense to build if the purchase of gas falls under sanctions?

      Sergey, make sure that the sanctions are lifted! Sit together, Ukraine and Russia, and agree that Crimea remains with Russia (and this is a fact), but Russia pays Ukraine compensation for the squeezed out business (you know that private property is inviolable). And that’s it! As soon as Ukraine agrees, the West will lift the sanctions. Everyone drives a round dance ....
      1. 123 Online
        123 (123) 6 February 2020 19: 45
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        Sergey, make sure that the sanctions are lifted! Sit together, Ukraine and Russia, and agree that Crimea remains with Russia (and this is a fact)

        A picture is right before my eyes ... Zelensky goes to the podium and says - "Crimea is Russia!" fellow Everything, the curtain. I don’t know if he has time to reach the Canadian border. recourse

        Russia pays Ukraine compensation for the squeezed out business (you know that private property is inviolable).

        Are you there in Baltimore closer, maybe in the know, when will the consulate buildings be returned to Russia? All the same, money is paid for them .... What did you say about private property there ???

        And that’s it! As soon as Ukraine agrees, the West will lift the sanctions. Everyone drives a round dance ....

        Firstly, as soon as Ukraine agrees, see paragraph 1. Secondly, look at the justifications for imposing sanctions, starting with the Magnitsky law, for the fact that we have appointed Trump, Skripali, Assad, hackers, and so on.
        Total: Russia pays a lot of money for what it already has, a country on which decisions to lift sanctions are independent, in exchange for a promise to lift an insignificant part of the sanctions and everyone is dancing round dance? Not a bit expensive for the dance?
        You have a climate there, or something else .... do not be offended, but, in my opinion, brain softening takes place there. Run from there.
  5. 123 Online
    123 (123) 5 February 2020 15: 36
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    A pretense of sadness in describing the real and imaginary miscalculations of Gazprom, crying a poorly concealed triumph when listing the countless negative consequences that are about to fall on our fragile shoulders. fellow There was no need to look at the author’s signature, I recognized it by handwriting from the first lines. hi
    Do not share the source of information about the volume of pumping, including super-planned, as well as their cost?

    We have to admit that having a good chance of winning the “gas war”, the monopolist ingloriously capitulated and signed a contract on enslaving conditions for himself for the next five years, naively believing that during this time he could put into operation the Nord Stream-2 bypass routes and Turkish Stream. What gives reason to be critical of, let me say, the “strategy” of Gazprom’s top managers?

    Don't you think you are focusing on a narrow direction? Why are you so sure that the whole strategy rests on the Ukrainian pipe? Try to look at the problem more broadly. After signing the agreement with Ukraine, freedom of maneuver not for the Belarusian direction appeared, although not as planned, but now Lukashenko will not be able to blackmail by stopping transit through Belarus. Now Ukraine purchases Russian coal directly, without intermediary services of Belarus.

    There remains the only option - to complete the pipeline independently, but Russia does not have such experience, the existing specialized pipe-laying vessels are not equipped, or are engaged in other projects in the Far East.

    Let me ask, if our specialized vessels are engaged in other projects, should this not be considered as gaining experience? It turns out that the statement about the lack of experience is not true.

    President Putin cautiously promised to launch Nord Stream 2 in the first quarter of 2021, but now this is a big question.

    Why? The United States imposes sanctions on European buyers, how will this prevent Gazprom from completing the pipe on its own? He will feel sorry for them and he will abandon everything?

    So, referring to its sources in Washington, the German publication Handelsblatt reported that the United States is ready in February-March to adopt a new package of sanctions against Nord Stream-2. According to reports, restrictive measures may no longer be directed against construction contractors, but directly against European buyers of Russian gas.

    Sanctions against the EU will be introduced in any case, the gas pipeline is just an excuse, sooner or later they will learn to live under sanctions, but we learned.

    This is the toughest "Iranian scenario" in relation to Gazprom. Obviously, it is precisely due to the knocking out of Nord Stream-2 that American LNG exporters intend to occupy this market share. Of course, Europe will not be delighted and will begin to look for workarounds, as is the case with Iranian oil, but the message is clear: the US is serious.

    If the United States is so serious, maybe voice the numbers, how did they prepare for this? Have they already built gas liquefaction plants and Scandinavian terminals? How much free gas does the US have to replace Russian? Are they ready to deliver a third of Europe’s needs right tomorrow? But why go into such details, since savoring the details of squeezing Russia is much more pleasant? smile

    In the worst case scenario, Nord Stream-2 turns into a long-term construction, or it will not be completed at all, becoming a monument to the domestic “effective management”. And now let’s recall that from 2021 the volumes of gas contracted by Gazprom will decrease to 40 billion cubic meters, which will force the monopolist to pay for Ukraine’s services at higher rates.

    Excuse me, but do not plan to use the Turkish Stream?
    “Without a strong word” it is difficult to comment on all these economic calculations. hi

    It is worth recalling that these of his "art" are funded from the federal budget.

    Are you sure? recourse As far as I remember, 50% are European companies Shell, OMV, Engie, Uniper, Wintershall, another 50% Gazprom. I would be very grateful for the source of information on financing from the federal budget.
    PS do you think that

    it makes sense to build if the purchase of gas falls under sanctions?

    And what do you want to do with the "Nord Stream - 1" ??? Now take it apart? After all, Russian gas will also go through it. smile By the way, how will the Americans technically determine from which pipeline the Europeans bought gas? winked Your position still bothers me a bit - do you think that it is necessary to immediately and with pleasure fulfill all the whims of the overseas "partners"? Interestingly, in life you behave the same way?
    1. Anatoly Unknown Offline
      Anatoly Unknown (Anatoly Unknown) 5 February 2020 19: 53
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      Quote: 123
      And what do you want to do with the "Nord Stream - 1" ??? Now take it apart?

      Dear 123, look at this:

      https://zen.yandex.ru/media/id/5d28b97531878200adeab78f/stroitelstvo-severnogo-potoka2-poslednie-novosti-na-05-fevralia-2020-goda-5e3a9c60b546fc01ff518224?&secdata=CJSZ2a6BLiABMAI%3D

      And more: Sergey Marzhetsky
      Author and columnist for the Reporter portal
      1. 123 Online
        123 (123) 5 February 2020 20: 28
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        Thanks. I looked. It is problematic to refer to this resource, but I largely agree with the conclusions set out there. I did not find anything there contrary to my conclusions. I agree that Gazprom is dumping, but that’s not all. Own electronic trading platform is actively developing, if I understand correctly, this is done in order to get away from dollars per gas for Europe. To accustom buyers to work on this resource, low prices are also used. In my opinion, the initial stage is trading for euros, and I won’t be surprised if the next step is trading for rubles.
        PS That Marzhetsky is the author of the article - I am aware, which is why I asked questions. hi In my opinion, some of the conclusions presented in the article are erroneous. But, apparently, I won’t get any answers; the dialogue didn’t work out.
  6. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 5 February 2020 15: 52
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    Quote: 123
    A pretense of sadness when describing Gazprom’s real and imaginary miscalculations, a poorly concealed triumph when listing the countless negative consequences that are about to fall on our fragile shoulders

    Why would I, the taxpayer, triumph, explain your idea, please?
    1. 123 Online
      123 (123) 5 February 2020 16: 18
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      Why would I, the taxpayer, triumph, explain your idea, please?

      The style of writing is visible. It’s painfully enthusiastic, you paint the “consequences” in paints, with details in details. laughing As for the taxpayer - an argument so-so, do you consider all issues from this perspective? I mean, like a taxpayer. I doubt very much that specifically you or I, as taxpayers, will feel the consequences of these events.
      I think there will be no answers to other questions?
      PS I still do not receive notifications about your comments, if I miss something, do not blame me. hi
    2. The comment was deleted.
  7. Evgeny Shamala Offline
    Evgeny Shamala (Eugene Shamala) 5 February 2020 19: 32
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    Mr. Marzhetsky, very weak analytics. You always “analyze” only the visible part of the iceberg, and you never see that “under water”.

    And here’s what’s under water. This year, statements will be made on the discovery of new types of energy. Free, affordable, and inexhaustible. Therefore, oil and gas will go by the wayside. The availability of energy and the adoption of a new financial system will lead to a significant drop in the dollar. Factor of. But the payment for transit is written in dollars, and Ukrainians will receive in dollars, but export gas contracts in euros. But the euro will not fall. For several reasons. And ours know about it, because information will come from us. But Ukrainians do not know about this. That's why all this looks like a loss on all fronts. But the one who laughs well in the autumn counts well.

    Why do you need to analyze if you do not own the information?
    1. 123 Online
      123 (123) 5 February 2020 20: 35
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      Your version is amusing, but it is too fantastic. recourse
      The energy revolution, the new financial system, the fall of the dollar and with a strong euro (although the euro, in fact, is derived from the dollar). Am I missing anything? request
      The people will ask for justification, what are you referring to? For information from the astral?
      1. Evgeny Shamala Offline
        Evgeny Shamala (Eugene Shamala) 6 February 2020 14: 09
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        I have said so much. Wait ...
        1. 123 Online
          123 (123) 6 February 2020 14: 50
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          I have said so much. Wait ...

          We wait. I hope you will not be anything for the disclosure ... winked
  8. cmonman Offline
    cmonman (Garik Mokin) 5 February 2020 20: 45
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    In the article:

    We have to admit that having a good chance of winning the “gas war”, the monopolist ingloriously capitulated and signed a contract on enslaving conditions for himself for the next five years, naively believing that during this time he could put into operation the Nord Stream-2 bypass routes and Turkish Stream. What gives reason to be critical of, let me say, the “strategy” of Gazprom’s top managers?

    Sergey, what did you want to say with the phrase -

    ... who had a good chance of winning the "gas war"

    What victory are we talking about? Do not pump gas at all? But this is gas for Europe too!
    Sergey, what did you want to say with the phrase -

    ... ingloriously capitulated and signed a contract on enslaving terms.

    The contract took into account the price of gas not only for Ukraine, but also for Europe. By signing a contract with Ukraine, Gazprom indirectly signed a contract with Europe! It was not surrender, it was a condition of Europe!
    Europe needs gas through Ukraine, because Now the cost of gas for Europe according to SP-2 or UP can decrease! This is a wild law of the West - the customer is always right! And this is a defeat for the monopolist. Only diversification of supply will lead to lower prices, which is important for the buyer!
  9. Igor Pavlovich Offline
    Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 5 February 2020 22: 24
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    On the western outskirts of Russia in the haze and a ghostly haze the word "EMBARGO" begins to appear more clearly ...
  10. Port Offline
    Port 6 February 2020 05: 53
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    Quote: Natan Bruk
    Check and check you Americans :)))

    Nedoghegemonu and his jackals mate in any way, and they end up like Hitler. It’s a pity that Russian blood will be spent on this bastard.
  11. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 6 February 2020 07: 42
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    Quote: Eugene Shamala
    Mr. Marzhetsky, very weak analytics. You always “analyze” only the visible part of the iceberg, and you never see that “under water”.

    And here’s what’s under water. This year, statements will be made on the discovery of new types of energy. Free, affordable, and inexhaustible. Therefore, oil and gas will go by the wayside. The availability of energy and the adoption of a new financial system will lead to a significant drop in the dollar. Factor of. But the payment for transit is written in dollars, and Ukrainians will receive in dollars, but export gas contracts in euros. But the euro will not fall. For several reasons. And ours know about it, because information will come from us. But Ukrainians do not know about this. That's why all this looks like a loss on all fronts. But the one who laughs well in the autumn counts well.

    Why do you need to analyze if you do not own the information?

    If it's not a secret, what do you smoke?
  12. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 6 February 2020 07: 47
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    Quote: 123
    The style of writing is visible. It’s painfully enthusiastic, you paint the “consequences” in paints, with details in details. As for the taxpayer - an argument so-so

    As for the taxpayer, the argument is sufficient. As a result, I and all other Russians will pay for Miller with his team. Do not la la.
    As for the description style, are you a literary critic?
    We still have freedom of speech in our country, people write what they consider necessary or possible. I do not like "my style", there is a lot of enthusiastic analytics, read and assent to it. But, as you see, there are many people who are interested in a different view of the state of things. You can judge this by their comments.
    1. 123 Online
      123 (123) 6 February 2020 12: 21
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      As for the taxpayer, the argument is sufficient. As a result, I and all other Russians will pay for Miller with his team. Do not la la.

      Miller in Gazprom is not the first day, have you already paid for it, or will it be the first installment?

      As for the description style, are you a literary critic?

      No, but I can draw certain conclusions on the text.

      We still have freedom of speech in our country, people write what they consider necessary or possible. I do not like "my style", there is a lot of enthusiastic analytics, read and assent to it. But, as you see, there are many people who are interested in a different view of the state of things. You can judge this by their comments.

      It’s not a matter of style, it’s just secondary, more important, that conclusions are drawn without a comprehensive objective analysis of all factors. Usually describe what fits into your version. All arguments against are not considered. As for the different view - you are absolutely right, there are many people who agree with you, however, as well as those who disagree.
  13. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 6 February 2020 07: 52
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    Quote: 123
    PS That Marzhetsky is the author of the article - I am aware, which is why I asked questions. In my opinion, some of the conclusions presented in the article are erroneous. But, apparently, I won’t get any answers; the dialogue didn’t work out.

    Let's do it simpler so as not to breed the discussion into 150 comments. Anyway, we will regularly return to the subject of C-2. So we will periodically “check the clock”, and see whose conclusions turned out to be correct in the end, ok?
    Remember, you argued with me about a transit contract? I then published a forecast on the timing and cost of the contract a few weeks before signing. And he completely paid off, and you argued. wink
    1. 123 Online
      123 (123) 6 February 2020 12: 43
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      Let's do it simpler so as not to breed the discussion into 150 comments. Anyway, we will regularly return to the subject of C-2. So we will periodically “check the clock”, and see whose conclusions turned out to be correct in the end, ok?
      Remember, you argued with me about a transit contract? I then published a forecast on the timing and cost of the contract a few weeks before signing. And he completely paid off, and you argued.

      He argued, I do not refuse. I did not take into account the "weak link - European partners", in the end it turned out to be wrong. And I do not hide it. A man cannot always be right; he can err. This, by the way, means that all your forecasts come true.
      As I understand it, this time you predict that:
      1. "SP-2" will not be completed within the promised period (1 quarter of 2021), or it will not be completed at all.
      2. Starting from 2021, Gazprom will not be able to do with the available capacities and will be forced to pay for Ukraine’s services at higher tariffs for pumping over the stipulated 40 billion cubic meters.
    2. 123 Online
      123 (123) 10 February 2020 13: 21
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      Little news, possibly related to this topic.



      We follow the development of events, perhaps, the destination of the Baltic. hi
  14. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 6 February 2020 07: 54
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    Quote: cmonman
    Sense to build if the purchase of gas falls under sanctions?

    Sergey, make sure that the sanctions are lifted! Sit together, Ukraine and Russia, and agree that Crimea remains with Russia (and this is a fact), but Russia pays Ukraine compensation for the squeezed out business (you know that private property is inviolable). And that’s it! As soon as Ukraine agrees, the West will lift the sanctions. Everyone drives a round dance ....

    The problem is that I am not a decision maker. In fact, the issue of resolving the conflict through the purchase of Crimea is not so stupid. But simply no one will allow this to be done, and your country, the USA, in the first place.
    1. 123 Online
      123 (123) 7 February 2020 09: 47
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      In fact, the issue of resolving the conflict through the purchase of Crimea is not so stupid.

      Crimea is not a bag of potatoes. He left Ukraine in accordance with the current Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the decision was made by the legitimate parliament. I have not heard protests of the current president of Ukraine. After joining the Russian Federation, the idea to buy Crimea is not the most sensible one, it is ours anyway. As I understand it, you are simply proposing to resolve the conflict for money, that is, paying off. Firstly, the conflict is not limited to Crimea alone, will we also buy Donbass? Secondly, the Kiev leadership is not independent in making decisions, and local radicals will not allow this to be done. They will take the money with pleasure, and everything will remain as before. I miss the moral side of reconciliation with the Bandera regime.

      The problem is that I am not a decision maker.

      In the light of the foregoing, this is not a problem, but a blessing. Admitting to power such “taxpayers” who are worried that they will have to pay for Gazprom’s miscalculations and at the same time support the payment of multi-billion dollar amounts for “reconciliation” is categorically impossible. You will surpass all Gazprom managers with Roskosmos in a year combined.
  15. hlp5118 Offline
    hlp5118 (Hlp) 8 February 2020 22: 33
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    All of Gazprom’s public endeavors resemble silent wrecking actions, for which everyone would be shot in 37. But, with us, Mr. Miller receives about 60 million rubles a month. Board members for high achievements are paid annually about 4 billion rubles. And losses are paid by ordinary people.