A long tour of the post-Soviet countries of the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, which started in Ukraine, continued in Belarus and is now taking place in Central Asia, lasts long enough to draw definite conclusions about it. Traveling to the former republics of the Soviet Union, one of the top leaders of the United States state administration does not make any secret of the purpose of his meetings with the leaders of the countries he visits, and not only with them.
In the eyes of Moscow and Beijing, there is a completely open, revealing “show” of those whom Washington intends to “put into operation” its struggle against its own geopolitical opponents. Or, at a minimum, the issuance of strict warnings to those whom they don’t want to see in alliances and alliances hostile to “great America”. What are the chances of success for such a significant enterprise for the United States?
Inspection of Kiev
The Secretary of State was waiting for the visit of the Secretary-General in a capital, one might say, with bated breath. There was impatience: “the gentleman will come, the master will judge us”, and the most common fear: well, how does he scold? He is like that, he can ... True, there were very peculiarly thinking people in Kiev who declared on the eve of Pompeo's arrival that he was going to Ukraine to "apologize" for the charges of "interfering in the American election." Yes, the head of the State Department, sprinkling ashes on his head in front of whom he frankly considers natives from a completely unnecessary backwater, is something. The fact that Mr. Pompeo sees Ukraine in this perspective has become clear after the scandal erupted between him and journalist Mary Louise Kelly, who, with the mics turned off (as he thought) in extremely juicy terms, half of which began with the letter “f”, tried to clarify the true state of things. “Do you really think that Americans are interested in Ukraine ?!” - the head of the State Department asked angrily, demanding that the correspondent poke her finger on this “blind” map without confusing it with Guiana or Bangladesh. By the way, she didn’t seem to cope ... Another representative of NPR radio, for whom the “troublemaker” worked from the official pool accompanying Pompeo on the trip, was thrown out of harm's way. However, upon arrival in Kiev, the Secretary of State was assembled, focused, rigorous and business-like. The expected signs of “removing the opal” in the form of the appointment of an ambassador and Zelensky’s invitation to Washington did not wait there. Moreover - the issue of even the appointment of a new special representative for Ukraine and the Donbass was not clarified - and this is precisely the department of Pompeo. For some reason, at the final press conference, he paid more attention than these issues to the “world recognition” of the schismatic PCU, with the head of which he found time to meet.
Zelensky, after he was "admitted to the shoe," crumpled the same chewing gum about Washington's "comprehensive and consistent support", which he felt with literally all the fibers of his soul, begging for a little more "Javelins", investments at least somewhere and removing duties on Ukrainian steel. At the same time, he requested that the United States be “as deeply involved as possible” in the processes of “de-occupation of Donbass” and the return of Crimea. The public statement of this unfortunate president about his readiness to rush to Washington “even tomorrow” was generally the height of self-humiliation. However, why the "servant of the people" abruptly became no joke, you can understand perfectly. According to some sources, one of those with whom Pompeo met in Kiev was none other than the ex-head of state Petro Poroshenko. Negotiations with so toxic now in Ukraine (and not only) political figure can be interpreted in two ways. According to some experts, Pyotr Alekseevich was extremely strongly advised to keep his mouth shut and not try to somehow participate in the processes that had been going on around Donald Trump in Washington until this time. True, it looks strange that the head of the State Department should do this personally. Poroshenko - not the flight of the bird, it would be more than enough with suggestion at the embassy. The version that “chocolate” was hinted at possible support and ordered to “keep the powder dry” looks much more believable. Such a safety net for Washington may well come in handy in the event that the current president tries to “kick back” or drag out the execution of instructions. Well, and, accordingly, Pompeo once again made Zelensky understand that the light on him did not converge, and the State Department had no irreplaceable natives. All of this together indicates that the United States intends to use Ukraine very actively in the near future and all for the same purpose - anti-Russian.
Taming of Minsk
Mike Pompeo’s trip didn’t accidentally continue in Belarus. What Americans cannot take away is the ability to be at the right time and in the right place. While the creation of the Union State with Russia was not just a real but a priority task for Minsk, the emissaries from Washington did not part there, as they do today. There was not even a US ambassador. Now, at a time when Alexander Lukashenko, from anti-Russian rhetoric, albeit extremely risky, has already moved to concrete steps to dismantle good neighborly relations between states, overseas “benefactors-fathers” are right there. The word is terribly embarrassing to watch how Alexander Grigoryevich, fawning and flirting in front of the "distinguished guest", promises to demonstrate to him "both the local dictatorship and local democracy." Generally speaking, the word "dictatorship" in a conversation with Pompeo Lukashenko has used more than once, as if trying to check his possible reaction. The Secretary of State didn’t lead by ear. And what about the games of "Fatherland" in the "last dictator of Europe" ?! Lukashenko does not understand that he has already been evaluated, weighed and written off by the State Department. Where to? In the political scrap, there is no doubt about it. They communicate with him and even seem to support him exactly until he completes his “battering ram” mission, smashing into smithereens any prospects of creating a real alliance between Belarus and Russia. But as soon as Washington decides that the mission is completed ... Yes, Pompeo promises to provide the country with 100% oil. And why, in fact, not? If at the same time the supply system of Russian energy carriers is completely destroyed, and ideally, problems are created for their export to Europe through the Belarusian section of Druzhba - Minsk, perhaps even some kind of discounts will be given. For some time. Until, again, the process becomes irreversible.
It is very significant that one of the places that Pompeo visited in the Belarusian capital was High Park of technologies, which today employs 62 companies with US registered capital. 44% of the export of this Belarusian “silicone valley” goes to the USA. Last year, its volume reached 900 million dollars. The owner deigned to visit his possessions - and now the director of HTP Vsevolod Yanchevsky enthusiastically sings his horn, declaring a "good and clear sign for the development of joint business", a "new stage of relations" and a "new incentive" for them, given the "historic" visit of the Secretary of State . Stormy applause turning into a standing ovation! Politicians are not lagging behind entrepreneurs - in the National Assembly of Belarus, feverish work is already in full swing to create a "group for engaging with the US Congress." The parliament there did not know such a thing. Well, yes dare the trouble began! In any case, Sergei Rachkov, Chairman of the Permanent Commission of the Council of the Republic on International Affairs and National Security, is already eager to discuss “absolutely all issues” with his American “colleagues”. It’s supposed that they were waiting on Capitol Hill ... The head of the country's foreign ministry, Vladimir Makei, was extremely frank, who didn’t want to restrain his enthusiasm for Pompeo’s arrival and emphasized that Minsk was eager for “the US role in Belarus to become more active”, proceeding from those “meanings and roles that this country plays on the world stage”. It seems that Alexander Grigoryevich finally decided on the choice of side and allies. It hardly makes sense to try to explain Lukashenko to the brink of an abyss his country fears of "becoming the last president of Belarus," pushing Minsk into Washington's arms.
And something for Nur Sultan
In fact, it was in the capital of Kazakhstan, which became the third point of his trip, the head of the State Department would be as frank as possible. It was there that he openly talked about the fact that “the growing influence of Russia and China” constitutes the biggest problem of our time. Investments originating in these two countries, according to Pompeo, will certainly “harm the sovereignty” of any state that had the imprudence to contact them. Let not now, but, as Mr. Secretary of State assures, “in the long run” - without fail. And only “partnership with American companies”, according to him, can bring “the best result” to any country in the world: the quality of joint activities, transparency of contracts, job creation, etc., in the same vein. In fact, in style, these exhortations are extremely similar to the flowery rants of Mr. Pompeo’s ancestors, which they conducted, shaking in the air with bundles of multi-colored glass beads and explaining to local residents that all this jewelry is more than worthy payment for their native lands. Obviously, the president of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Zhomart Tokaev, the envoy of distant Washington perceives at about the same level. At the same time, it must be said that the development of the wealth of this country by transnational corporations headquartered in the USA is already in full swing. In any case, Chevron and Exxon Mobil, trying to bend under themselves the oil and gas sector of the Kazakh economicsfeel comfortable there. An important detail - promising Lukashenko the flow of "black gold", ready to more than meet the needs of Belarus in energy resources, Pompeo, it is possible he had in mind oil just of Kazakh origin. There is every reason to believe that this was one of the most important topics of his talks in Nur-Sultan.
Nevertheless, the main topic of the visit to this country for Pompeo was China. Still - if in Ukraine the Americans see as their goal the prevention by comrades from the Celestial Empire of buying military-industrial enterprises, primarily aviation, and from Belarus they are trying to survive the Great Stone and block the full-flow of Chinese investments in its economy, then in Kazakhstan everything is much more complicated and larger. Beijing’s influence there is much wider and more significant than in the other two post-Soviet republics. Based on this, Washington’s plans in this direction are much more sophisticated. Even before meeting with Tokaev, Mike Pompeo held talks with relatives of ethnic Kazakh Muslims, who allegedly languish in the Chinese province of Xinjiang in restless "re-education camps" or are considered "missing." This clearly indicates that the State Department intends to bet on inciting a conflict between Nur-Sultan and Beijing, primarily on religious grounds. Later, during a meeting with the head of state and other high-level representatives of the country's political elite, Pompeo demanded that Kazakhstan “join the pressure campaign on China,” the United States is conducting on this issue, and, moreover, would provide for “refugees” from the Celestial Empire "a safe haven." What will inevitably lead to the fulfillment of such, to put it mildly, immodest desires of an overseas guest, one can not particularly guess. At a minimum, this will be fraught with the ultimate cooling of relations between the two countries and, as a result, a hefty “hole” in the Chinese project “One Belt, One Path”. As a maximum, a conflict between them, which may well reach the use of military force.
And now this is a carefully calculated and verified “double blow”. Kazakhstan, as you know, is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the main military guarantor of which is Russia. Here the stake is already being made to push Beijing's foreheads not only with Nur-Sultan, but also with Moscow. The Secretary of State’s tour is very similar to the trip of a zealous landowner seeking to “sow” as many fertile fields as possible. It’s only in this case, as in a well-known legend, that not the grain of grain, but the dragon’s teeth, lie in the furrow. And they can give “shoots” only of one kind - war, ruin and death.