Massacre in Idlib: Turkey ready to exchange Syria for Libya?


The war in Syria, having left the front pages for a while, was again in the news top. The embers of a long-standing conflict flared up again in earnest: a real massacre is going on in the Syrian province of Idlib. President Erdogan threatens the government of Bashar al-Assad and his allied Russian Turkish army. How realistic is the re-clash between Moscow and Ankara, which for the first time ended in the death of the Su-24 and our troops?


The Turkish president accused Damascus and the Kremlin of violating the Astana and Sochi agreements. He promised to do everything necessary to prevent attacks in the de-escalation zone:

We will not be shy to do whatever is required for this, including the use of military force.


It sounds quite serious, given that Erdogan has in fact proved his readiness to use his army without even being afraid of "nuclear" Russia. However, this time the threat is most likely more declarative than real.

The agreements in Sochi and Astana inherently concerned the division of part of Syrian territory into different zones of responsibility. In Astana, the regime of Idlib was determined, and partly Aleppo, where Turkey became a "watchman". However, Ankara itself created today's problems.

Firstly, she never fulfilled her obligations, according to which this de-escalation was to occur in her de-escalation zone, and attacks on government forces should cease. The Turks also did not resolve the issue of the Jebhat al-Nusra terrorist group. Secondly, Ankara did not completely transfer to Damascus and Moscow part of the territory that was supposed to move to them according to the agreements reached earlier, simply continuing to hold them. The Syrians are now forcibly taking theirs in every sense, hitting the Turkish occupation zone, which caused dissatisfaction with President Erdogan.

Syrian troops knocked out terrorists from the suburbs of Aleppo, from where they attacked the civilian population of the city. Bloody battles are fought on the entire eastern front of the "terrorist reserve" in neighboring Idlib. Militants widely use suicide bombers to break through the defenses of a government army. The Syrians, with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces, launched a successful counterattack called Idlib Dawn.

The key question is whether Ankara is ready to openly intervene on the side of the terrorists. A Turkish military convoy crossed the border the day before and headed for the war zone. It looks very significant against the background of Erdogan's statements, but it is quite possible that this demonstration is an element of political bargaining with Moscow.

As you know, Ankara actively sided with the official Tripoli in Libya. It is believed that the Kremlin behind the scenes supports Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. The Turkish authorities are ready to build a military base near the Libyan capital, where the Air Force and special forces will be based. Experience shows that getting into someone else's conflict is very simple, but getting out of it can be very difficult. For Turkey, having serious economic problems, a protracted and costly war on two fronts, in Syria and Libya, could cause the subsequent political collapse of the Erdogan regime.

It is possible that between Moscow and Ankara there are unspoken agreements on the exchange of Syria to Libya. In this case, Turkey receives assistance from the Kremlin in resolving the issue with Haftar, in return imitating activity during the sweeping operations of militants in northern Syria, increasing the territory controlled by Damascus.
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  1. steelmaker Offline
    steelmaker 2 February 2020 10: 31
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    Everything is much simpler. By failing to fulfill its obligations under the treaties, Turkey simply showed yet another disrespect for Russia. And our military seemed tired of it. They will take their strength, then again the bargaining will begin. And how else, Lavrov will not sleep peacefully without negotiations. Here's how it can be agreed that the arrangements under Lavrov were NEVER implemented. In Libya, Turkey will also break off. There, besides Russia, Haftar has enough allies. Well, Erdogan will build a military base there, and Tripoli will fall, and then what? It’s just that Erdogan’s tanks were still burning, so he “feathers and dismissed” - it shows its significance.
  2. 123 Offline
    123 (123) 2 February 2020 12: 01
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    It sounds quite serious, given that Erdogan has in fact proved his readiness to use his army without even being afraid of "nuclear" Russia.

    More precisely, without being “afraid” to take responsibility for the actions of your army at a critical moment. To consider the fact that the Su-24 shot down by his order, at least naively. To give such an order is frank stupidity; nothing but an aggravation of the situation and the risk of a war could bring such actions. Think Erdogan a complete idiot? By the way, can you share the data on the awarding of orders and medals for pilots who have completed this "order"? What no? Maybe they were promoted at least in rank? Or is there evidence that they were released from prison?

    It is possible that between Moscow and Ankara there are unspoken agreements on the exchange of Syria to Libya. In this case, Turkey receives assistance from the Kremlin in resolving the issue with Haftar, in return imitating activity during the sweeping operations of militants in northern Syria, increasing the territory controlled by Damascus.

    The author has rather strange ideas about the relations between Russia and Turkey. Turkey closes its eyes and does nothing, but Russia provides assistance ...... By the way, what kind of help are we talking about? Military, financial, political support? Apparently, they didn’t bother with such details? It will just help and that's it, this is “shaggy” Moscow, it just waits for someone else who will force it to help, it itself does not know what to do there and what interests it has. Just boobies that everyone twirls as they want? In my opinion, the author is excessively arrogant towards people involved in this problem.
  3. Sergey Latyshev Offline
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 2 February 2020 12: 19
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    In fact, the Negro sheriffs do not care about the problems ... Moreover, there is oil ...
    But one must be indignant ...
  4. steelmaker Offline
    steelmaker 3 February 2020 22: 27
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    I assumed Turkish blood, but there was information about our blood? So what, again, the Turks get rid of tomatoes?