The end of the Union State: what will happen if Moscow and Minsk do not agree on oil

President Lukashenko made another move in the “oil war” with Russia. Having bought a test batch of Norwegian oil through Lithuania, he began negotiations with Ukraine on pumping oil through the Odessa-Brody pipeline from Azerbaijan. How far is Alexander Grigoryevich ready to go, and how will his demarche turn out for relations between Russia and Belarus?

We repeat once again: speaking of oil, we have to mean the question of the future Union State of our countries. It is in the oil industry that the “special” position of Minsk is most clearly manifested. Our Belarusian friends and partners want to buy “black gold” at Russian prices, and if this is not possible, then receive compensation for their refineries from our own federal budget on a par with domestic companies.

The position is quite original, to which Moscow responds quite reasonably. If Belarus wants to work according to internal Russian rules, then it should integrate economically within the framework of the obligations undertaken by Minsk to build the Union State. If not, then oil prices will be for her, as for everyone else. Fair. And then everything will depend on what President Lukashenko decides. There are not many options.

1. The compromise. During the negotiations between Moscow and Minsk, a compromise can be found, and then Belarus will receive oil at a discount, starting to move forward on the construction of the Union State. Or it will carefully simulate this process.

2. The end of the Union State. Alexander Grigoryevich may decide that hunger will be prettier to him than satiety in close alliance with Russia. This will mean the end of the Union State, which will occur either legally - by the withdrawal of Belarus from the treaty, or in fact - through the consistent economic and political separation of Minsk from Moscow. The consequences of such a gap will be very serious and not entirely clear for both sides.

On the one hand, Belarus will suffer very serious losses. Nothing will stop her from switching to alternative sources of oil. If necessary, Minsk will receive “black gold” both through the Baltic states and through Ukraine, and even completely replace the volumes that it receives from Moscow today. The key question is what it will cost him.

In particular, Norwegian oil cost Belarus $ 10 per barrel more than Russian. Then I had to pay Lithuania for its unloading and delivery by rail. It turns out a margin of 25-30 dollars. Plus questions to the quality of oil. Belarusian refineries are ground for Russian raw materials. During the experiment with Venezuelan oil, it had to be mixed with Russian oil so that the equipment “digested” it.

As for the use of the Ukrainian oil pipeline, we must remember that it will not be free, Kiev will not engage in charity. And Kazakhstan will not sell raw materials cheaper than the market price. And Poland has already warned Minsk that it will not use Druzhba in reverse mode so as not to lose supplies from Russia.

As a result, Belarusian refineries may start working at a loss. With a complete breakdown in ties with Russia, Minsk will also lose transit payments for pumping "black gold" to Europe. But domestic oilmen will be in the black. Those 18 million tons that go to Belarus at a discount can be sold abroad at world prices. Plus, Russian oil products in foreign markets will be able to squeeze Belarusian.

On the other hand, such a break between Moscow and Minsk would mean the end of the Union State project. Belarusian propaganda in all economic the Kremlin will blame the problems, and a sharp rise in anti-Russian sentiment will begin. President Lukashenko will be forced to seek friendship with Europe and the United States, and most likely will find one. Instead of the only official ally on the western frontier, we will get a second Ukraine in the future with all the ensuing consequences.

So, counting the possible profits, you should think a little about the very near future. Still, it is better to find some compromise acceptable to both parties.
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  1. Afinogen Offline Afinogen
    Afinogen (Afinogen) 23 January 2020 12: 08
    what will happen if Moscow and Minsk do not agree on oil

    Yes, there will be nothing. Lukashenko at an exorbitant price will buy other oil. And to dream - suddenly again the manna from heaven will descend on him in the form of gifts from Russia. But Russia seems tired of this clown.
  2. businessv Offline businessv
    businessv (Vadim) 23 January 2020 12: 22
    Belarusian propaganda will blame the Kremlin for all economic problems, a sharp increase in anti-Russian sentiment will begin. President Lukashenko will be forced to seek friendship with Europe and the United States, and is likely to find her.

    They painted everything too gloomy, Sergey! Thank you for the article, it is useful to reflect on this topic. But I think that none of our rulers would ever dream of buying anything at a loss. Prices for Norwegian oil are more expensive than Russia offers, but in the specific case, these 18 million tons were cheaper, otherwise they would not have been bought. At a loss, purchases of non-coal coal in Africa are possible, but not for their own, but for state funds, it is impossible to blame such Father But, he does not allow himself such nonsense. Another thing is that he does not support the policy of stripping his citizens, raising fuel prices, hence all the questions.
  3. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 23 January 2020 12: 48
    Quote: businessv
    They painted everything too gloomy, Sergey! Thank you for the article, it is useful to reflect on this topic.

    Gloomy forecasts, unfortunately, turn out to be the most realistic.
    1. Alien on this holiday of life 24 January 2020 12: 28
      He who dines with the girl dances her. Your hacienda should provide a banquet, respected realist. Otherwise, your place in the dustbin of history.
  4. Igor Gul Offline Igor Gul
    Igor Gul (Igor Gul) 23 January 2020 13: 07
    I am for the first option, but without becoming part of the Russian Federation.
  5. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 23 January 2020 13: 37
    Yesterday, after work, I went to the kiosk and bought Kazakh vodka at 75 rubles per 0,5 liter. But what about Russian laws? In addition, Kazakhstan began long ago to destroy everything Russian at home. Why does our government encourage the authorities, which hate everything Russian, and spread rot about their only faithful ally, like "Grudinina"? The USA makes significant discounts for its allies and partners! This TRUMP began to break everything and look at his allies like a "wolf on a sheep". Therefore, economic wars began. But the United States, with its 33% global economy, can afford it. And what if Lukashenka wants to buy oil at Russian prices? Not for nothing !!!!!!!!! Electricity is sold to China for 1 rub. 50 kopecks, and I pay 3 rubles 25 kop !!! GENERALLY lower than Russian prices! Is there a little Ukraine for Russia? It is Ukraine that must be spread rot for the destruction of everything Russian, and we have peace, friendship, chewing gum with them!
  6. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 23 January 2020 14: 33
    No need to spare money on pro-Russian NGOs, neither in Belarus, nor in Ukraine. Learn from the Americans!
  7. Eduard Aplombov Offline Eduard Aplombov
    Eduard Aplombov (Eduard Aplombov) 23 January 2020 16: 01
    The steelmaker, along the way, found a loyal ally, huh, but what about * not our war *, the ban of the immortal regiment and other Bandera somersaults, a parasite on the neck of Russia, will betray and sell if it is beneficial to personal power.
    The Kremlin does not create an alliance with it, it is necessary to raise pro-Russian successors, and this into the wreck of history.
    1. General Black Online General Black
      General Black (Gennady) 24 January 2020 12: 17
      This is a steelmaker from Kazakhstan vodka for 75 p. for 0,5. Therefore, he writes comments on the courage.
  8. Valentine Offline Valentine
    Valentine (Valentin) 23 January 2020 16: 20
    It is high time for us to understand that we do not have "partners", friends and brothers, but there are competitors who will go to any meanness just to push their "Wishlist", and no matter how, by blackmail, sanctions, stick, carrot, or blood, this is what Trump began to do openly after he announced after the elections that his priority was the US economy, and the whole world immediately felt this on the budgets of their countries, and Uncle Donald pressed, presses, and will press everyone, even his European "sixes". Here is But Father, who is still a blackmailer, has been playing with us for a long time in a "fraternal-union state", but only on the principle, don't touch yours, mine, and he doesn't think about some kind of integration with Russia, but to profit free of charge at our expense - he is always welcome.
  9. valeriy7 Offline valeriy7
    valeriy7 (Valery) 23 January 2020 16: 22
    President Lukashenko will be forced to seek friendship with Europe and the United States, and is likely to find her.

    - a place on the plank beds in The Hague.
  10. rotkiv04 Online rotkiv04
    rotkiv04 (Victor) 23 January 2020 16: 24
    I remember how Azarov, during Yanyk's time, pounded the thresholds in the Kremlin for months, asked for relaxation in the gas contract, which was signed by the loaf with ears, but there was one answer - NO. And then the year 2020 came and a new agreement was concluded - very beneficial for the current Bandera ukrozhopia and not at all beneficial for Russia. It looks like it will be the same with Butler.
    1. Brancodd Offline Brancodd
      Brancodd 23 January 2020 17: 17
      Azarov sought to revise the price of gas purchased in Russia. A transit agreement has now been concluded. These are still different things. The conclusion of a transit agreement with Ukraine was pushed through by Germany. Ukraine is more German than the American project. It’s just that our leadership for a long time was dominated by Germanophilic sentiments, which did not allow us to make the right decisions. Hope this goes away. At least Russia has demonstrated its ability to play long. Can play long Germany? This is a question.
      Azarov, in particular, and the entire Ukrainian leadership under Yanukovych, demonstrated an extremely low level of decision-making. They practically worked for German interests. Let me remind you that in October 2013, Rogozin was sent to Ukraine with a whole package of proposals for an unprecedented level of cooperation. This is the loading of the Nikolaev shipyards, and contracts for many years for Zorya-Mashproekt, Motor Sich, Yuzhmash. In addition, detailed proposals for the creation of a grain union with Russia and Kazakhstan. All Azarov was rejected. "We're going to Europe."
      Well, Belarus simply began to be very expensive. About $ 7 billion a year. This, for example, is 2.5 times more than we spend per year on the federal space program. And more than the amount of subsidies to all regions.
    2. businessv Offline businessv
      businessv (Vadim) 24 January 2020 12: 10
      Quote: rotkiv04
      During Yanyk's time, Azarov spent months on the doorstep in the Kremlin, asked for relief in the gas contract, which was signed by Mrs. "Loaf with ears"

      It has long been a feeling, regularly supported by bureaucratic affairs, that such things do not happen by chance. Everything is done to ensure that people have created dissatisfaction with the Russian authorities and I must say that they succeed! As another specific example, the governor of Sevastopol Ovsyannikov, who, thank God, Manturov took back, under his wing. Down with the fifth column - the enemies of Russia! soldier
  11. Roarv Offline Roarv
    Roarv (Robert) 23 January 2020 20: 12
    Old Man wants cheap oil - and what’s the problem, well, he wants 10-15-25% cheaper than the market price ....
    To set a condition for it - the MZKT chassis, Belarus Tractors, Polesye combines, engines and spare parts of all kinds are cheaper by the same percentage of discount that the Old Man asks.
  12. minby Offline minby
    minby 23 January 2020 21: 00
    The main thing is that the Russian special services control this whole process and prevent another "Maidan". I say this as a Belarusian, and I don’t need that mess and chaos in almost all directions that is happening in Ukraine.
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  14. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 23 January 2020 21: 56
    Relations with Belarus are now a priority. At the end of the year, Lukashenko had the last chance to adequately enter the Union State. Natural redneck prevailed. Russia now has other concerns. Putin secured the entry of the Russian Federation into the three world leaders. Now he must quickly make changes within the country. Objectives: to improve the life of the people (for now - by optimizing the work of the government) and begin radical changes in the economy. The deadline is November of the current year. After Trump’s re-election, the United States, China, Russia and (to some extent) India will gather for a conference and divide, to a first approximation, the world into currency zones. Belarus will enter our currency zone for any reason. Now, on a common basis. Lukashenko missed the preferences. Although, when reviewing the borders of some states, they are likely to get something. Given the history of the region and the high sanity of the people.
    Old Man has exhausted Putin’s patience limit and they simply won’t communicate with him. Soon the world will be different and there is simply no time to engage in petty squabbles of Russia. And no one else is interested in his problems. And if he continues to get confused at the feet of adult boys - he will find problems for himself.
    1. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
      Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 27 January 2020 17: 26
      I can't guess .. "Agitator's Notebook", or "Pravda" for 1976?
  15. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 January 2020 08: 20
    Quote: boriz
    Putin secured the entry of the Russian Federation into the three world leaders.

    Could you decipher this thesis?
    1. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 24 January 2020 13: 49
      Merkel deciphered it last spring. She said that her task before the end of the term was to pull Germany up to the level of world heavyweights: the USA, China and Russia. It is unlikely that she will succeed.
    2. cmonman Offline cmonman
      cmonman (Garik Mokin) 25 January 2020 00: 01
      Putin secured the entry of the Russian Federation into the three world leaders.

      Could you decipher this thesis?

      I will do it.
      Boriz did not mean “joining” the three leaders, but “at the head of the three - Syria, Libya, North Korea.”
  16. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 24 January 2020 08: 21
    Quote: boriz
    Objectives: to improve the life of the people (for now - by optimizing the work of the government) and begin radical changes in the economy. The deadline is November of the current year.

    In fact, he was already 20 years old for these very fundamental changes ....
    1. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 24 January 2020 13: 56
      November - US elections. If Trump survives and wins, then a conference of world leaders will convene and it will determine the future of the world: cut currency zones, determine relationships and an economic model for the further development of the world. By November, Putin should visibly make life easier for the people (as a first approximation) and rid the country of the influence of the IMF (i.e., either replace Nabiullina, or make her work as it should, but the latter is unlikely). Putin must present this in order to be guaranteed to enter the top three winners. It will be Yalta 2.0.
  17. Vasil K. Offline Vasil K.
    Vasil K. (Vasil K.) 24 January 2020 10: 45
    Old Man of Belarusians is not ... but unscrupulously persistent! If you were given slack before, now it’s just waiting. The land will come, it will come to the Kremlin itself, as if nothing had happened, it will agree with the proposed fair conditions, it will smile ... I warn those wishing to argue - you will lose.
  18. Tolik_74 Offline Tolik_74
    Tolik_74 (Anatoly) 24 January 2020 15: 40
    What will be, what will be. That's what, by the end of 2020, the whole Ykanomika of Belarus will collapse, and the Rosselkhoznadzor, in addition, will prohibit the import of Belarusian milk and block all the schemes of transit of smuggling from Europe to the Russian Federation and products banned from import that Lukashenko has been working on for years.
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  24. Dust Offline Dust
    Dust (Sergei) 24 January 2020 23: 16
    About the fact that the Old Man will quickly find a common language with the West .., this is utopia! Lukashenko will never be his own for the West! If possible, they will remove it and put another! Alexander G. understands this very well! He will curse, be offended, threaten, blackmail Putin ... But he will keep his distance from the West ... like a sacred cow!)
  25. Wanderer039 Offline Wanderer039
    Wanderer039 25 January 2020 13: 34
    In any case, we will get a second Ukraine with all the consequences, since those who go to Belarus under red and white flags are the same fascists and Russophobes as those who go to Ukraine under red and black flags ... Lukashenko is getting more and more impudent and behaves like Yanukovych, and the less money the Russian Federation spends on Belarus, the better for the Russian Federation ... Lukashenko does not need a union state with the Russian Federation, since he cares most about his own throne, and all the independence of the countries of the former USSR was built on Russophobia.
  26. Sergey Kuznetsov_2 (Sergey Kuznetsov) 26 January 2020 02: 46
    What are we talking about if Lukashenko's "ally" still does not recognize Crimea as Russian, not to mention Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
  27. Port Offline Port
    Port 26 January 2020 06: 12
    Luke's choice is not so hot - either Rostov, or in the clutches of the Western inquisitors.
  28. Konstantin Lavchenko (Konstantin Lavchenko) 28 January 2020 16: 48
    I have long known that two countries - the United States and Russia - have an agreement so as not to feed the other countries. Let them earn money and it will be better this way - a lesson for them.