Lukashenko's search for alternative oil began with failures


The "oil war" between Belarus and Russia is gaining momentum. Minsk announced that now its new “best friends” will be Kiev, Baku, Nur-Sultan and Warsaw instead of Moscow. What will come out of this “U-turn from Russia” with President Lukashenko?


First of all, it should be remembered that, speaking about oil, we have in mind the future of the Union State, about which we are in detail told earlier... For many years Belarus has been an "ally without obligations" for Russia, actively using its special status to obtain economic preferences. While the world was relatively calm, everyone seemed to be happy with everything. But after the events of 2014 and the subsequent anti-Russian sanctions of the West, the Kremlin still had to point out the question “who are you with, Mr. Lukashenko?”

Oil turned out to be the very litmus test, which should be determined, “hu hu”, and with whom this “hu” is. The tax maneuver conducted in the Russian oil industry is fundamentally changing the rules of the game for Minsk. The period of “duty-free freebie” for hydrocarbon raw materials for it ends, while Russian companies were able to get compensatory benefits.

Everything is logical: if Belarus is completely independent, then it must solve its economic difficulties on its own. An alternative is further integration within the Union State, which Minsk signed a long time ago. Thus, the Belarusian Tax Code should be unified with the Russian one, and the refineries from Belarus will receive the same tax deductions as the domestic ones. It is estimated that Minsk can receive $ 1,5 billion under the reverse excise tax.

But President Lukashenko cannot be fooled into chaff. Belarus began negotiations on the purchase of oil with Poland, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Ukraine. Would such a replacement for supplies from Russia make sense?

Minsk already had experience in acquiring Venezuelan and Kazakh oil, and not too successful. It turned out to be corny more expensive. The same Nur-Sultan is more profitable to sell "black gold" to China than to sponsor Belarus. No one has yet canceled the long transport shoulder on the issue of supplies from Azerbaijan. Baku’s charity will hardly be engaged either.

As for Poland, which President Lukashenko was counting on by reorienting the Druzhba oil pipeline, Warsaw declared the impossibility of combining its own interests and “projects” of Alexander Grigoryevich:

Current technical The infrastructure of the Druzhba pipeline makes it impossible to transfer oil from the base in Adamovo eastward while maintaining continuity of supply for current PERN customers with whom there are existing agreements in the field of oil transportation to oil refineries.


In general, the rejection of Russian oil will become a non-trivial task for Belarus. If Minsk really doesn’t want to ally with Moscow, then he will have to pay a high price for this.
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  1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 15 January 2020 13: 18
    -3
    In order to prove to the author that Lukashenko is wrong, we need to talk about numbers. And it is better to give a comparative analysis of prices. At what price does Russia sell oil to China or Ukraine, and Europe, of course, and at what price does Belarus offer. And so it’s not serious - the guilty party has already been appointed!
    1. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 15 January 2020 18: 37
      +2
      In order to prove to the author that Lukashenko is wrong, we need to talk about numbers. And it is better to give a comparative analysis of prices. At what price does Russia sell oil to China or Ukraine, and Europe, of course, and at what price does Belarus offer. And so it’s not serious - the guilty party has already been appointed!

      In fairness, where is the author trying to prove that Lukashenko is wrong and appoints the culprit? Lukashenko has his own interests and he defends them, and they do not coincide with ours and, in my opinion, with the interests of the people of Belarus too. As for oil prices, it can be different, for example, depending on the volume of sales. Do you think that the price of oil for Ukraine is cheaper than for Belarus? If Butska buys oil at a price higher than the world, then how does he manage to export it further? (petroleum products of this oil also applies).
  2. Igor Pavlovich Offline Igor Pavlovich
    Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 15 January 2020 15: 33
    -6
    ... If so much Minsk does not want to ally with Moscow, then for this he will have to pay a high price.

    - Are you hinting at a war between Russia and Ukraine? In 2014, Russia lifted the price of gas for Ukraine to almost $ 500. How it all ended for Russia and Ukraine is well known to everyone ...
    1. Rusa Offline Rusa
      Rusa 15 January 2020 17: 03
      +2
      Of course we know. The Turkish Stream from Russia has already been launched, and Nord Stream 2 will also start operating this year, as insisted by Merkel, the German chancellor. And all this bypassing Ukraine, through the fault of the Bandera and neo-Nazis in Kiev.
      Lukashenko does not want such a fate for Belarus, but his regime is stubbornly moving towards this, trying to torpedo the Union State and blackmail against Russia. Such an adventure will come out to Lukashenko and his accomplices sideways.
  3. Jar.serge Offline Jar.serge
    Jar.serge (Reznik) 15 January 2020 20: 27
    -1
    In this way Belarus will follow the course of Ukraine, Western "friends" will organize another abscess near the Russian borders.
  4. Roarv Offline Roarv
    Roarv (Robert) 16 January 2020 09: 28
    +1
    Usually Leaders without a Nuclear Suitcase trying to sit with one ass on two chairs either have to save their ass or tear their ass.
  5. Vkd dvk Offline Vkd dvk
    Vkd dvk (Victor) 17 January 2020 01: 11
    +4
    Quote: Igor Pavlovich
    ... If so much Minsk does not want to ally with Moscow, then for this he will have to pay a high price.

    - Are you hinting at a war between Russia and Ukraine? In 2014, Russia lifted the price of gas for Ukraine to almost $ 500. How it all ended for Russia and Ukraine is well known to everyone ...

    In general, for such lies they beat the face.