Gas unfinished construction: how Merkel is ready to pat for Nord Stream 2

January 13 2020 5

Nord Stream 2 is gradually turning into a long-term construction. The “step”, set by President Trump to the gas pipeline at the very last stage of construction, violated the plans of both Gazprom and Berlin. German Chancellor Angela Merkel was forced to personally come to Moscow to intercede for such an important project for Germany, on which she made a big bet. How can a visit of a German lady help us?

First of all, it is necessary to state several unpleasant facts.

At first, Russia again was left alone with its problems. There is no sense in counting on the help of foreign companies. As a matter of fact, there are only two of them with similar experience, Allseas and Saipem. The Swiss Allseas instantly curtailed all work, barely had time to dry the ink on the signature of Donald Trump under anti-Russian sanctions in the military budget. Now the completion of Nord Stream-2 is exclusively our headache.

Secondly, Gazprom is currently not ready for the implementation of such infrastructure projects. There is no experience in deep-water laying of pipelines; there are no specialized vessels suitable for such work. Fortuna is not adapted to the Baltic conditions due to the lack of an automatic stabilization system. Denmark may simply for good reason not allow Fortuna to lay the Nord Stream 2 in its waters. "Academician Chersky" is theoretically capable of completing work, but it is located in the port of Nakhodka in the Far East, where it will go for at least 2 months, plus it will need to be re-equipped for laying pipes of larger diameter.

Thirdly, after signing the 5-year transit agreement with Ukraine, Gazprom was simply not quite profitable to launch the Nord Stream-2 this year. So, until the end of 2020, the monopolist pledged to pump 65 billion cubic meters through the Ukrainian gas transportation system. When the Turkish Stream is launched at full capacity, it will take the remaining volumes. The additional gas pipeline this year is simply redundant, because Gazprom has signed up to the “download or pay” condition. In other words, if he does not use the Ukrainian direction, then he still “gets” money.

Taken together, the above means that in 2020, Nord Stream-2 will definitely not be completed. Even President Putin personally described the first quarter of 2021 as a realistic launch date. It turns out our negative forecast entitled “2020: What is in store for Russia this year?” in relation to the gas pipeline, it is now justifying itself.

However, it is too early to completely bury Nord Stream-2. Chancellor Merkel bluntly stated that she was counting on this pipe. What support can it provide for the completion of the gas pipeline?

German leader can help pipeline "political the roof. " So, there is a good chance that Denmark, with the US filing, will start fixing obstacles to the construction already by Gazprom under various pretexts, which it has already done. The forces of Berlin put pressure on Copenhagen to “cover” the pipeline. Further, the Chancellor will again have to go through the procedure for obtaining exemptions from the Third Energy Package for Nord Stream-2. Once she has already done this, but due to sanctions, all the deadlines have been disrupted. It must be repeated.

Sooner or later, the gas pipeline will be completed on its own, but the real terms are likely to be delayed even more than President Putin called.

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steelmaker

0

13 January 2020 14: 12

When you read such articles, it becomes a shame for our leaders. Another thing is surprising that someone else is not just standing up for them, but they are also admiring! I have no words, one MAT!
gorenina91

-1

13 January 2020 14: 58

Once again, Russia was left alone with its problems. There is no sense in counting on the help of foreign companies.

- How exactly did I personally write about this earlier ... - Russia will have to answer and pay for all these new "gas pipes" ...

There is no experience in deep-water pipelines laying, there are no specialized vessels suitable for such work. Fortuna is not adapted to the Baltic conditions due to the lack of an automatic stabilization system. "

"Academician Chersky" is theoretically capable of completing work, but it is located in the port of Nakhodka in the Far East, where it will go for at least 2 months, plus it will need to be re-equipped for laying pipes of larger diameter.

- Well, well ... - how to go hunting - so feed the dogs ...
- And when you start such a project, is it really possible to "hang on a string" all the success of the planned business and entrust the entire pipe laying to some Swiss company ...

after the signing of a 5-year transit agreement with Ukraine, it was simply not quite profitable for Gazprom to launch Nord Stream 2 this year. So, by the end of 2020, the monopolist undertook to pump 65 billion cubic meters through the Ukrainian GTS. When Turkish Stream is launched at full capacity, it will take the rest of the volume. The additional gas pipeline this year is simply redundant, because Gazprom signed on to a “pump or pay” condition. In other words, if he does not use the Ukrainian direction, then he will get money anyway. "

That’s what I personally wrote about all the time ...- about the need for this new gas agreement with Ukraine ...
- So it all turned out ... - And there were some minuses ... there were minuses ... from the "most gifted" ...
- And if Russia then (foreseeing and anticipating events) would come up with a proposal to conclude this new gas agreement with Ukraine, then it could offer its own, more favorable terms for itself, this new gas agreement ... when the "roast cock will bite" and sign this new agreement on different terms ...

The German leader can help the pipeline "political roof". So, there is a good chance that Denmark, with the US submission, will begin to fix the obstacles to the construction already by Gazprom under various pretexts, which it has already done. Berlin has the power to put pressure on Copenhagen.

-That's really no big deal .. -Counting on Germany in this matter is not worth it ... -All this very, very ephemeral "misalliance" between Russia and Frau Merkel is so fragile and mercantile on the part of Germany that it will literally hold out until the first deliveries of Russian gas through the joint venture -2 ... -And only then Germany (who will be there instead of Merkel) will win back and show Russia all its costs to the last pfennig ...
- After all, in fact, it is Russia’s fault that it didn’t technically equip and didn’t ensure the laying of the pipeline under the sea ... - This is any European court, any European arbitration will recognize ... - so Russia will have to pay ... - or rather, to the Russian taxpayer ... -Such is the "benefit" from all this ... in the future for the residents of Russia ...
Monster_Fat

0

13 January 2020 17: 04

I hope, remember, a year ago, at a time when the praises of "the speed of construction of the SP-2 and the fact that Germany would resolve all problems" were sung, I wrote that "they count chickens in the fall" and the Americans will "hit" at the last moment, and will not be allowed to build SP-2. Moreover, they will force Russia to continue pumping gas through Ukraine for at least another 5 years. Well, they have waited. In fact, the situation with the SP-2 is even worse than it seems at first glance - Denmark has already said that if Russia completes the construction of the SP-2 on its own, then it (Russia) will have to re-obtain permission from Denmark for laying, since the previous another company, and now they will have to go through the whole procedure of approvals for laying by other vessels again. So, everything can stretch indefinitely ...
Marzhecki

+2

14 January 2020 07: 21

Quote: Monster_Fat
I hope, remember, a year ago, at a time when the praises of "the speed of construction of the SP-2 and the fact that Germany will resolve all problems" were sung, I wrote that "they count chickens in the fall" and the Americans will "hit" at the last moment, and will not be allowed to build SP-2. Moreover, they will force Russia to continue pumping gas through Ukraine for at least another 5 years. Well, they waited. In fact, the situation with the SP-2 is even worse than it seems at first glance - Denmark has already said that if Russia completes the construction of the SP-2 on its own, then it (Russia) will have to re-obtain permission from Denmark for laying, since the previous was given to another company, and now they will have to go through the whole procedure of approvals for laying by other vessels again. So, everything can stretch indefinitely ...

Yes, unfortunately, the most pessimistic forecasts turn out to be the most realistic as a result.
S.V.YU

+2

14 January 2020 17: 39

Why does the leadership of Gazprom and Russia also receive multimillion-dollar salaries? They, at best, need to be driven into the neck! Or even in court !!!!! SHAME!