Torpedoing the Union State, Lukashenko risks a presidential future


Apparently, the warm friendship of Belarus and Russia came to an end. Minsk introduced a giant “environmental” tax of 50% to pump oil through the pipeline of the same name “Friendship”. The attempt on “our all” to Alexander Lukashenko in the Kremlin may no longer be forgiven.


As you know, “Friendship” from Soviet times has been feeding “black gold” Eastern Europe, passing through Belarus. Belarusian oil refineries got a good job processing it for subsequent sale. As an ally, Minsk received all these years raw materials at a large discount on market value.

Unfortunately, the “ally” of Russia from Belarus turned out to be another one. Minsk did not recognize the reunification with Crimea; it is refusing to build a military base on its territory. The obligations assumed under the agreement to unite in the format of the Union State are treated in a very peculiar way. With all this, President Lukashenko is actively “shaking rights”, demanding special conditions for his country.

The situation is frankly unhealthy. Minsk must finally decide and be consistent. If he is with Russia, then he must fulfill the obligations of Union construction and joint defense under the treaty. Then there will be all relying "buns" in the form of subsidies of the Belarusian the economy and tax compensation.

If Minsk itself, considering itself free from allied obligations to Moscow, then its problems are only its problems. But Alexander Grigorievich should remember the fate of Viktor Fedorovich, since the “Western Bank” for Belarus with a high degree of probability will end personally for him not in the best way. No wonder the German edition of DW recently unearthed information about extrajudicial killings by the authorities in Belarus. They make it clear that at the right time everyone will remember.

The tax maneuver in the oil industry, unexpectedly tough conducted by Moscow, is a way to let Minsk decide who it is with. Speaking about oil in relations with Belarus, today we are talking about the future of the Union State. Alas, it is a big question. There are not many options.

1. Integration. President Lukashenko fully signs the entire “road map” and begins its sequential implementation, which leads to the creation of the Union State not on paper, but in reality.

2. Imitation. Minsk signs everything, having received the desired from Moscow, but then sabotages the implementation of the agreements.

3. Dead end. Lukashenko rests on the horn and does not sign anything at all.

4. The end. Belarus follows the most severe scenario and simply leaves the principle from the plainly created Union State.

So far, the second scenario with some mutual concessions and subsequent red tape and sabotage of their execution by the Belarusian side looks most likely. In the bottom line, this means that under President Lukashenko we will almost certainly not succeed in real Union State.

Perhaps the Kremlin should think about who should be supported in the next presidential election in the country closest to us. Alexander Grigoryevich, with all due respect to him for stubbornly defending the interests of the state entrusted to him, should remember the experience of neighboring Ukraine and not go too far. Breaking - not building. Nevertheless, the past, present, and future of Russia and Belarus are common.
Used photos: http://kremlin.ru/
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17 comments
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  1. steelmaker Online
    steelmaker 12 January 2020 12: 51
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    For about an hour I searched the Internet for oil prices for Belarus and why they can’t agree. I'm tired. Each side says its own, but the numbers are not voiced. And in this article without numbers. Understand how you want.

    Oil transit through Belarus, Transneft vice president Sergei Andronov said in early October, due to problems at Druzhba, it will be 6,4 million tons less than the plan, at 41,6 million tons. Gomeltransneft Druzhba has already stated that in order to cover the costs of reducing the transit of Russian oil due to force majeure, the tariff must be increased by 21% (from September 1 it increased by 3,7%).

    CONCLUSION: To draw the right conclusions, you need more information with the NUMBERS.
    1. 123 Offline
      123 (123) 12 January 2020 14: 02
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      To draw the right conclusions, you need more information with the NUMBERS.

      Absolutely. good Yesterday I watched the news in Belarusian, Alexander Grigorievich deigned to say that Russia offers oil at prices higher than world prices, then the "experts" set out options for how to "cunningly" suspend the transportation of oil, gas, etc. There was a strong impression that I was watching Ukrainian TV. And Father did not deign to name any specific figures.
      In general, propaganda works (on both sides).
      There will be real data, then the conclusion.
    2. commbatant Offline
      commbatant (Sergei) 13 January 2020 00: 50
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      Quote: steel maker
      For about an hour I searched the Internet for oil prices for Belarus and why they can’t agree. I'm tired. Each side says its own, but the numbers are not voiced. And in this article without numbers. Understand how you want.

      123 (123) Yesterday, 14:02 p.m.
      Yesterday I watched the news in Belarusian, Alexander Grigorievich deigned to say that Russia offers oil at prices higher than world prices, then the "experts" set out options for how to "cunningly" suspend the transportation of oil, gas, etc. There was a strong impression that I was watching Ukrainian TV. And Father did not deign to name any specific figures.
      In general, propaganda works (on both sides).

      He who seeks finds. You think politically ... yes ...

      According to Belneftekhim, in the conditions of a tax maneuver in 2019, the price of Russian oil imported to Belarus was about 80% of the world oil, at the beginning of 2020 - 83%. Neither Minsk nor Moscow disclose the price of supplies. According to Belstat, in January-October 2019, Belarus imported oil from Russia at an average price of $ 364 per ton.
      Read more:

      https://news.tut.by/economics/667535.html

      Mikhail Leontyev - on the tax on Russian oil: A freebie for Belarus is over - they could lose $ 50 billion. Therefore, Lukashenko is looking for a way to make money on us.

      https://www.kp.ru/daily/27077.5/4148369/

      Fresh links this year ...
      1. 123 Offline
        123 (123) 13 January 2020 07: 17
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        He who seeks finds. You think politically ... yes ...

        Thanks, of course. hi But they didn’t make much clarity. As I understand it, two different prices are offered, one for domestic consumption in Belarus, for the rest of the supply the prices are close to the world level, the pricing scheme is tricky, price + transportation + premium. How much is in ruble terms is not entirely clear.
        1. commbatant Offline
          commbatant (Sergei) 13 January 2020 07: 36
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          Quote: 123
          How much is in ruble terms is not entirely clear.

          It seems that everything is clearly written, in 2019 the price was 364 dollars per ton, which is equivalent to 80% of the world price, in 2020 it will be the price equivalent to 83% of the world ... but, I think, it will be higher for the Republic of Belarus because The Republic of Belarus has not signed an agreement with all Russian oil companies, and the environmental tax has already been set, so that prices for the Republic of Belarus will be significant for the Republic of Belarus, the barrage fee introduced by the Republic of Belarus is too large for oil companies, so either the agreement will not be signed at all or they will be signed world prices, and even such barrage measures of the Republic of Belarus can cause litigation in international arbitration ....
          Relatively, the sowing season is coming soon, so that the agricultural sector will suffer enormous damage if there are high prices for fuel and lubricants ... and the barrage measures of the Russian Federation (which may appear in the fall) for agricultural products of the Republic of Belarus on the Russian market ...
          1. 123 Offline
            123 (123) 14 January 2020 19: 28
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            It seems everything is clearly written

            Thank you, of course, I imagine the general situation, I mean - there is no information specifically - 1 ton of oil, cost, for example, 500 tugriks. For a snack:

    3. Rusa Online
      Rusa 13 January 2020 11: 14
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      Torpedoing the Union State

      - Lukashenko’s regime risks losing $ 50 billion due to subsidies and preferences from Russia. This was said by Leontyev of Rosneft.
      Here are the numbers.
    4. race Offline
      race (Yaroslav) 13 January 2020 22: 46
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      Please, here are some more links:

      https://udf.by/news/economic/204668-mozhet-li-belarus-obojtis-bez-rossijskoj-nefti.html

      https://interfax.by/news/policy/ekonomicheskaya_politika/1266497/

      https://udf.by/news/main_news/204992-lukashenko-daet-zadnij-hod-jekologicheskij-nalog-na-tranzit-nefti-cherez-belarus-ne-kosnetsja-rossii.html
  2. The comment was deleted.
  3. john Offline
    john (Grigory Petrov) 12 January 2020 20: 59
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    The union state is needed by the leadership of the Russian Federation, which is dreaming of solving the problem of 2024, the leadership of the Republic of Belarus, which begs for cheap oil.
    People from two countries do not need this stillborn project.
    1. commbatant Offline
      commbatant (Sergei) 13 January 2020 07: 14
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      Quote: john
      The union state is needed by the leadership of the Russian Federation, which is dreaming of solving the problem of 2024, the leadership of the Republic of Belarus, which begs for cheap oil.
      People from two countries do not need this stillborn project.

      The opposite is true. The peoples of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus during the creation of this union under B.N. had nothing against the integration of two peoples into a single new state ....
      The leadership of the union state is necessary for political purposes and not because of 2024, the political vector of the Russian Federation’s development will not change with the departure of GDP, but the beginning of the creation of a confederation of independent states under the wing of the Russian Federation ..... there was this Union, but declaring its necessity, but sabotaging its real creation and obtaining all sorts of preferences from the Russian Federation in the form of cheap and long-term loans, as well as resources from the Russian Federation, the Republic of Belarus was going to continue to receive a freebie ....
      In the event of a deepening crisis between the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation regarding integration of the two states, the Old Man will be unprofitable to be in power, as the economic situation will worsen in Belarus, so the Old Man will make his successor the scapegoat ... well, the successor will either take up the real integration of the Union and rebuild the entire economy of the Republic of Belarus, or will follow the path of Ukraine and choose the "western" development path ....
  4. minby Offline
    minby 13 January 2020 00: 14
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    Belarus and Russia to be together. So it was historically. The occupation of the Belarusian lands by Poland and Lithuania does not count, it was not ours. We are Slavs, not Westerners. And they must be together. The oligarchs, nationalists and the entire Western elite, of course, are against this.
  5. Eduard Aplombov Offline
    Eduard Aplombov (Eduard Aplombov) 13 January 2020 07: 46
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    The problem must not be solved with Luka, it is clear that the porridge cannot be cooked with this sultan, the West does and grows its proteges, the whole process may not need to be repeated, but the lessons should be learned, the Kremlin itself has grown a mustachioed, and now it’s eat a full spoon, his people new taxes, pension buns and this bread and salt and billions to the wind.
  6. Sergey Latyshev Offline
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 13 January 2020 09: 08
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    What did you think?
    They have their own oligarchs, we have ours, and everyone cares about their pocket.

    Traded. For 50 billion, they said in the comments?
    If only I would not bargain.
  7. Vasil K. Offline
    Vasil K. (Vasil K.) 13 January 2020 10: 27
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    Well, if the assumption that the election of the president of the union state is planned for 2024, then year 2 is expected to continue sluggish brawls, but then ... Everything will be serious.
  8. Umsan Umsanov Offline
    Umsan Umsanov (Umsan Umsanov) 14 January 2020 09: 56
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    Luke is right.
    You cannot create an alliance with a state where laws change day by day and, moreover, do not comply with any law.
    And where the power shouts to its people - "Eat macaroni for 3 tr per month."
  9. Port Offline
    Port 14 January 2020 10: 23
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    Quote: Umsan Umsanov
    "eat macaroni for 3 tr per month"

    How much is shawarma for the people?
  10. Jar.serge Offline
    Jar.serge (Reznik) 14 January 2020 16: 26
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    Lukashenko has embarked on a slippery slope .... "sitting on two chairs", while at the same time "flirting" with the West and trying to "milk" Russia, is not doing well. A living example of Hussein, Gaddafi, something similar was in Ukraine ..... Long time to sit. Then they will remember everything, and by no means Russia.