The shooting of General Suleymani: is there a war between Iran and the United States?


On the eve of the world dangerously close to the start of the US-Iranian war in the Middle East. On a personal order from President Donald Trump, the U.S. Air Force shot the convoy of General Kassem Suleimani, who led the IRGC special forces. Killed 10 people, including the famous commander. Tehran said today that this attack is tantamount to unleashing a war.


To be this war, and why the elimination of the Iranian general occurred right now under such controversial circumstances? The fact that Congress was not notified in advance, and the operation itself was carried out not by the CIA, but by the American military, testifies to the unusualness.

The sources of these events should be sought in the United States, where the presidential race is gaining its momentum. Candidate Trump has so far the greatest chance to lead the White House. It’s profitable for his rivals to make him goof off. The Middle East direction is one of the most promising in this matter. The end of 2019 was marked by a missile attack on the positions of the US military in Iraq. Those in response struck at enemy targets in Iraq and Syria. An angry mob of Iraqis broke into the US Embassy in Baghdad, smashing it.

Recall that in 1979 something similar happened in neighboring Iran. Employees of the American embassy in Tehran were held captive for a long time. The power operation to free them failed miserably. This event is considered "the last nail in the lid of President Carter's tomb." It is possible that something similar was prepared for Donald Trump.

It is also possible that tacit consent for the actions of the Iranian proxies in Baghdad was given by opponents of President Trump, who played on the same side in this matter, but the information “leaked out”. This can explain the jewelry accuracy of the actions of American aviation. The problem is that Trump fell into the fire from the fire. Now his political opponents accuse him of starting a war with Tehran. But will she?

War?


A very realistic scenario of the war between the USA and the Islamic Republic, we detail considered earlier. In it, Washington acts as an aggressor and conducts a limited operation. Iran is a large regional power with a serious, motivated army, a tough nut even for the Pentagon.

Instead of trying to get to Tehran, the Americans can do without capturing just one province of Khuzestan that is critical for Iran. Coincidentally, about 80% of the oil reserves of the Islamic Republic are concentrated in this region, with the predominant Arab population. The loss of Khuzestan will mean the imminent collapse of Iran economics. Knowing this, Tehran will fight for its oil fields to the last, that is, the issue price for Washington will be very high.

Will Donald Trump do something similar during his election campaign? Hardly.

Now the first move is right for Tehran. Iranians cannot reach the USA directly, but they have a set of means in their arsenal that can cause big problems to the Americans in their region. For example, missile strikes and UAV attacks can fall on Pentagon infrastructure in Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain. Iranians can attack US military bases in Iraq, oil refineries and oil fields in Saudi Arabia, tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, etc. Finally, this very channel can be blocked, which will create a global energy crisis.

However, it should be understood that such actions by Tehran will force Trump to a tougher response, up to the operation against Khuzestan, which we spoke about above. Will the Iranian authorities do something similar in memory of General Suleymani? With all due respect to him, hardly.

Proxy


More likely look through proxy hits. Yemeni Hussites may begin to attack American and Saudi tankers, Saudi oil infrastructure. Pro-Iranian Shiite groups in Iraq are able to “set fire to the ground” under the feet of the US military, and at the official level, Baghdad can achieve the withdrawal of US troops from its territory. Some hackers are able to launch cyber attacks on the United States.

Neither Trump nor Tehran needs a real war today.
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  1. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
    Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 4 January 2020 12: 30
    -5
    I remember very well how, on the eve of the second Iraqi war, noteworthy military analysts crucified about the strength, power and training of Saddam's army. Everything collapsed in a few days and the statues flew. I think if it comes to a conflict with Iran, the situation will sooner repeat itself. And, perhaps, in this case, the crowd will be happy to trample on the portraits of these "Ayatollahs"?
    1. S.V.YU Offline S.V.YU
      S.V.YU 6 January 2020 12: 05
      +1
      Well, quite possible! But it is POSSIBLE and a repetition of New York "TWIN TOWER"! There, by the way, the plane "fell" on the PENTAGON! Too bad it's small! East is a delicate matter! Don't make Muslims angry!
  2. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 4 January 2020 16: 03
    +2
    And I agree with the author that Iran will not go specifically to a big war. There will be hits through the proxy. Iran is not Russia. They will not wipe themselves from such a spit and will not forgive, that's for sure.
    1. Arkharov Offline Arkharov
      Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 4 January 2020 16: 47
      -6
      steelmaker
      Do you think one knows who is behind these proxies? I think no one will understand much further, especially since everything will be clear. An understandable example is provided.
    2. S.V.YU Offline S.V.YU
      S.V.YU 6 January 2020 12: 06
      0
      You're right! We forgot the terrorist attack in New York! Everything can happen again!
  3. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 4 January 2020 16: 52
    0
    And I'm not alone! I agree with the author. Read carefully!
  4. commbatant Offline commbatant
    commbatant (Sergei) 4 January 2020 20: 24
    +1
    I agree only with the end of the author of the article, the parties (Iran and the United States) of the conflict will not act directly against each other, but using irregular formations, the IRI - the Shiite militia, assembled from all countries where Shiites live and operating in Iraq, SAR, Palestine and Yemen (a separate front), with the main task: disruption of US communications in the BV (in the places of deployment of the US Armed Forces) and causing economic damage and their infrastructure to pro-American countries in the BV, the United States - using the ISIS and Al-Qaeda units created by them (other terrorist organizations ), with limited tasks: parrying the actions of the Houthis in Yemen during the SA military operations there and the involvement of the Iranian Armed Forces in border battles in the Khuzestan region and their diverting actions in other border areas of Iran and Iraq ...
  5. commbatant Offline commbatant
    commbatant (Sergei) 4 January 2020 20: 36
    +2
    Any war is preceded by preparation; to start a war, the United States must solve three tasks:
    1) isolate the future theater;
    2) violation of enemy communications (in different environments);
    3) communication failure.
    Nothing while we are observing this, there is no concentration of US military forces in the region, there are no blockade actions against Iran ....
    That’s when the flight and reconnaissance and sabotage units of the USA, Great Britain and Israel begin to arrive at the military airfields of Azerbaijan, when transport planes begin to land in Turkey and the SA, and the indo-Saxon Navy, AUD, KUG Naval Forces begin to form in the Indian Ocean, then it’s possible will worry and take their trips to Turkey ....
  6. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 7 January 2020 15: 43
    +2
    No requirements, only accusations. And threats. In such an environment, it is very difficult to agree. Americans need to reverse. Otherwise ...
  7. marciz Offline marciz
    marciz (Stas) 8 January 2020 08: 27
    -2
    Yes, the Arabier will hum a little bit, blow up a couple of innocent civilians and calm down. Well, what is there - "let's hit the center of decision-making," Iran seems to be like an ally !? Or hand over like Donbass and Russian spring !?