2020: what does Russia expect this year?

January 2 2020 22

So, 2020 has come. What will it be for us? Let's try to do economic и political forecast for the next 12 months, and at the end of this year we will compare it with real events.

We make a reservation right away, the author of the lines is definitely not an optimist, but his pessimism, unfortunately, is often justified. Recall, immediately after the meeting in Paris in the Norman format, against the background of universal enthusiastic assessments, we published article with the headline "5 years and 40 billion cubic meters of gas for Ukraine: What Putin and Gazprom are silent about." A few weeks later, a new transit agreement with Kiev was signed precisely on these conditions, although, it would seem, "nothing portended trouble."

Nord Stream 2

In fact, he is frozen at the finish line. Foreign contracting companies refused to participate in the project due to the risk of falling under US sanctions. Gazprom will have to get out on its own. The only vessel that he has at his disposal of those suitable for such work, the Academician Chersky, is reportedly under repair in the Far East. While it will be put into operation, until it reaches the site, a lot of time will pass.

Upon arrival, the "Academician Chersky" may face another difficulty. Either the United States will impose additional sanctions, or Denmark itself will again include the old barrel organ regarding the need to comply with environmental requirements. The construction schedule for Nord Stream-2 will continuously shift to the right, and there is a significant risk that the pipeline will not be commissioned until the end of 2020. The logical result of such an “effective management” will be the beginning of rising gas prices for the population within the country.

"Ambitious privatization"

The privatization of state property will continue. A sample list of objects we led earlier. At the same time, systemic liberals through the federal media will prepare us for the need to continue it after a three-year privatization plan.

Squeezing the economy

The activities of the liberal government will lead to the fact that the volume of the economy will continue to decline, the number of legal entities and individual entrepreneurs will decrease. The outflow of capital from Russia will be at the level of 25 to 40 billion dollars. Housing prices will increase by at least 6%. The ruble will fall in price against the dollar by 5-6%. Food and stuff prices will continue to rise.

Population decline

Russians in 2020 will become even smaller, but their loss will be compensated by the authorities due to the influx of migrants.

Relations with Ukraine

Due to the fact that at the end of 2019, Kiev twisted into a ram's horn Gazprom, it will now behave lower with Moscow. The situation is favorable for Minsk-3, in which the conditions for the reintegration of Donbass into Ukraine will change in its favor. If we draw an analogy with the "gas epic", then it can end with about the same negative result for Russia, and the DNI and LC will return to Nezalezhnaya. Most likely, the timing will be linked to the US presidential election, when it is determined whether Donald Trump will remain in power.

Relations with the West

Most likely, Trump will be able to be re-elected. Under him, the United States will continue to put economic pressure on competitors, including Russia, and the sanctions policy against our country will become more stringent. The American president will insist that Russia and Ukraine "get along", that is, comply with the Minsk Agreements. After his inauguration, one should expect a “breakthrough” in resolving this issue.

Libya

In this North African country, another aggravation of the conflict is brewing. After the entry of Turkish troops to help the government of Faiz Saraj, a lot will depend on what position the Kremlin takes. If the Wagnerites continue their unspoken support for Haftar, relations between Moscow and Ankara will become more complicated, and Russian military specialists will have big problems. Somewhat more likely is a certain option with the division of Libya into spheres of influence, in which control of the coast departs for Turkey.

The author of the lines will only be glad to make a mistake so that reality gives an unexpected pleasant surprise, being better than these forecasts.

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kriten

+4

2 January 2020 14: 23

The GDP team outlined steps to further rob the country .... a summary of the foregoing.
1. Citizen Mѣshkov
  
  +1
  
  3 January 2020 20: 58
  
  It’s like in a joke:
  
  The CIA approved a plan for the collapse of Russia, which is that it does not interfere with Putin!
Arkharov

-1

2 January 2020 19: 53

The activities of the liberal government will lead to the fact that the volume of the economy will continue to decline, the number of legal entities and individual entrepreneurs will decrease.

- if the government were liberal, nothing like this would be close. The author has everything upside down. And it is somewhat touching that Libya is included in "what awaits Russia", does this topic, distracting from the country's real problems, seem so important to the author?
monman

0

2 January 2020 20: 49

The logical result of such an “effective management” will be the beginning of rising gas prices for the population within the country.

Nothing to scare! If the price of gas increases, then only for 70% of the population, the remaining 30% can sleep peacefully - they are not gasified!

https://www.severreal.org/a/30146025.html

According to official figures, over the past ten years, the average level of gasification in Russia has grown from 53,3 to 67,2% (in rural areas - from 34,8 to 57,1%).

Due to the fact that at the end of 2019, Kiev twisted into a ram's horn Gazprom, it will now behave lower with Moscow.

For Sergey (the author), the requirement of one country (through a court) to comply with the law of the contract is “impudence”! The author, apparently, welcomes raiding at the state level (Yukos example).

The situation is favorable for Minsk-3, in which the conditions for the reintegration of Donbass into Ukraine will change in its favor. If we draw an analogy with the “gas epic”, then it can end with about the same negative result for Russia.

SW Sergei Marzhetsky, for this phrase, I understand that you do not want to part with the Donbass! So take it to yourself, to Russia, but “officially” - bring in troops and hold “free elections”. And solve the problem of increasing the population of Russia!

Most likely, Trump will be able to be re-elected. Under him, the United States will continue to put economic pressure on competitors, including Russia.

And here in more detail, please. How is Russia, or what is Russia the “economic competitor" of the USA? What articles?

The author of the lines will only be glad to make a mistake.

Honestly, I will be very happy if the author is right.
Felix Chuykov

0

3 January 2020 01: 37

Finish

Enduring and legendary -
Mighty Red Star.
And with Tricolor power is mediocre -
Rotting by misfortune after misfortune.

Felix Chuykov
January 02 2020 years
Marzhecki

-1

3 January 2020 07: 06

Quote: Arkharov

- if the government were liberal, nothing like that would be close. The author has everything upside down.

Nothing like this. Everything is just as it should be under a liberal government. It’s just you or a naive person captured by illusions, or just pretend to be.
1. Arkharov
  
  -1
  
  3 January 2020 10: 38
  
  Marzhetsky (Sergey)
  How can a truly liberal government do almost anything to destroy small business? It’s you, writer, how they arrived from Mars, rubbing us here. I understand that for you any government that has not established a state monopoly on any means of production and has not abolished private property is liberal.
Marzhecki

-2

3 January 2020 07: 09

Quote: cmonman
For Sergey (author)
... the requirement of one country (through a court) to comply with the law of the contract is “impudence”! The author, apparently, welcomes raiding at the state level

Your whole comment is one continuous demagogy.
1. monman
  
  0
  
  3 January 2020 19: 53
  
  Sergey, are you a journalist or a party functionary of Soviet times?
  When those didn’t have enough logic to object, there was a phrase about demagogy.
  European Court found Ukraine right? Yes. Has Gazprom silently paid? Yes. Right away? Yes. So agreed? Yes.
  I understand that you would like European courts to be analogues of the Russian Supreme - to spit on the constitution and decide in favor of the authorities. You see, there is still democracy in the West ...
  1. plabu
    
    +1
    
    3 January 2020 23: 19
    
    Quote: cmonman
    Sergey, are you a journalist or a party functionary of Soviet times?
    When those didn’t have enough logic to object, there was a phrase about demagogy.
    European Court found Ukraine right? Yes. Has Gazprom silently paid? Yes. Right away? Yes. So agreed? Yes.
    I understand, you would like the European courts to be analogues of the Russian Supreme - to spit on the constitution and decide in favor of the authorities. You see, there is still democracy in the West....
    
    When you wrote about the European court, is this, by chance, not about arbitration in Sweden? If so, I have to upset you - there it didn’t smell right and even almost immediately after that decision, which has not yet been appealed, colleagues from Europe discarded excerpts from that decision - alas, right, there didn’t even fit this decision, and that arbitration it has already come back to haunt, and more than once has backfired - already here he wrote how many lawyers in Europe were busy changing conditions in the relevant treaties ...
    So, it’s NOT necessary to write here about democracy, the Constitution, and about the fact that there everything is decided exclusively by law ...
    1. monman
      
      -1
      
      4 January 2020 05: 04
      
      Thank you, Sergey, for clarification. Indeed, I would be better off using the Stockholm Court, instead of the geography of the European Court. On the decision of the court. Details and articles would still not understand, I do not understand. What I understood is the result of the court, its decision. “They dumped excerpts” ... If I were a journalist, real, independent of the government, then I would understand every line of the matter. “Excerpted passages” were enough for you, so your personal opinion is biased, you are a “one-way” journalist. Rather - not a journalist at all.
      1. plabu
        
        0
        
        4 January 2020 07: 51
        
        I have never been a journalist, and I am NOT Sergei, but this does not change the essence - the court's decision is purely political, but you can continue to think as much as you like that "there" is democracy and everything is exclusively according to the law.
        
        monman
        
        -2
        
        4 January 2020 18: 33
        
        Sorry, Head - missed, I got it wrong!
        
        ... the court’s decision is purely political ...
        
        Well, that’s understandable, because in Swedish I don’t understand anything, and THIS is not translated into English. But they offended us, and this is politics!
        
        ... but you can continue to think as much as you like that "there is democracy."
        
        I not only “believe that there is democracy”, I still live in it and feel it!
        
        plabu
        
        +1
        
        4 January 2020 20: 55
        
        Quote: cmonman
        Sorry, Head - missed, I got it wrong!
        
        ... the court’s decision is purely political ...
        
        Well, that’s understandable, because in Swedish I don’t understand anything, and THIS is not translated into English. But they offended us, and this is politics!...
        
        If you don’t understand that, speaking your language, you offended, first of all, the law, then I don’t intend to explain it, especially in such a volume of text ...
        
        Quote: cmonman
        ... I not only “believe that there is democracy”, I still live in it and feel it!
        
        Yes, yes, of course, especially after such a decision, like a trial, well, just the triumph of democracy ...
Marzhecki

-2

3 January 2020 07: 27

Quote: cmonman
And here in more detail, please. How is Russia, or what is Russia the “economic competitor" of the USA? What articles?

European gas market, no?
1. monman
  
  0
  
  3 January 2020 20: 04
  
  Sergey, what economic pressure ”do Americans create on Russian gas if they sell their gas more expensive than Russian? Is not it?
Sapsan136

+3

3 January 2020 09: 54

In this case, a change of power awaits Russia, a civil war is not ruled out ... neither Putin nor his company will forget the drain of the Donbass and the decline in living standards ... The support of the people will tend to zero, along with real ratings, no matter how Levada tries draw 300%, which, in fact, no ... and no for a long time ...
philippino lippi

-1

3 January 2020 10: 46

Yes! The Tsar of all RUSSIA, has brought the COUNTRY to a dead end! RUSSIA, USSR, RUSSIA have never known such a SHAME! I think we need to wait for the PROTEST OF THE PEOPLE OF RUSSIA, against the anti-national policy of the Kremlin! INTERNAL and EXTERNAL! RUSSIA HAS BEEN DRIVED INTO A CORNER! And what does the President CONSTANTLY broadcast to us? "I WILL SOLVE ALL ISSUES OF THE COUNTRY AND YOURS!" WELL DONE! I DECIDED! THE KING, like ALLAH, IS GREAT!
Marzhecki

0

5 January 2020 10: 40

Quote: cmonman
Sergey, what economic pressure ”do Americans create on Russian gas if they sell their gas more expensive than Russian? Is not it?

I don’t understand, you slept the whole last year, or what?
1. monman
  
  -1
  
  5 January 2020 18: 33
  
  This is not “economic pressure," find the right wording ...
Marzhecki

0

5 January 2020 10: 42

Quote: cmonman
Thank you, Sergey, for clarification. Indeed, I would be better off using the Stockholm Court, instead of the geography of the European Court. On the decision of the court. Details and articles would still not understand, I do not understand. What I understood is the result of the court, its decision. “They dumped excerpts” ... If I were a journalist, real, independent of the government, then I would understand every line of the matter. “Excerpted passages” were enough for you, so your personal opinion is biased, you are a “one-way” journalist. Rather - not a journalist at all.

Come on? I wonder how you define "my direction"?
Marzhecki

+1

5 January 2020 10: 44

Quote: Arkharov
Marzhetsky (Sergey)
How can a truly liberal government do almost anything to destroy small business? It’s you, writer, how they arrived from Mars, rubbing us here. I understand that for you any government that has not established a state monopoly on any means of production and has not abolished private property is liberal.

There are two kinds of "liberalism": one for the victorious countries, the second for the vanquished. Liberalism looks exactly as you described for a country that lost the Cold War. You either do not understand this, or you understand, but you are a hypocrite.
The writers of tales about "liberalism" are you and your supporters.