Gazprom capitulates: Kiev will receive both transit and compensation


Gas relations between Russia and Ukraine are one of the most resonant topics of 2019. Until the expiration of the transit agreement, only a half month is left. The key question is: will the “gas war” happen again, or can the parties find a compromise without bringing the matter to an end?


Presidents Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky directly tried to agree in a good way within the framework of the "Norman format." Comments from Kiev and Moscow on this issue are contradictory, we at Reporter tried to reconstruct some agreements that could be reached behind the scenes: an agreement for 3-5 years with gas pumping volumes of 40 billion cubic meters annually. As it appears, our forecast begins to come true. Let's try to imagine the situation in questions and answers.

Will there be a transit stop on January 1, 2020?


The likelihood of such a scenario is present, but it is not very high. Both Ukraine and Europe prepared for a possible cessation of supply in advance. Gazprom itself will suffer the most from the gas war, which will immediately fall into the next multi-billion-dollar fines and with its own hands will finish off the rest of its reputation as a reliable supplier. Thus, he will open a broad road to the European gas market for American LNG, which is what Washington is seeking.

In addition, having lost the source of “gas dollar” revenues, our “national treasure”, one of the largest taxpayers in the country, will provoke subsequent socialeconomic Problems. By the way, Gazprom has already advised preparing for the end of the “era of low gas prices” in Russia. In other words, the monopolist will compensate for its losses at the expense of the population and production. So, you have to agree. The question is under what conditions.

How long will the contract be concluded?


Initially, Kiev demanded a 10-year contract, while Gazprom insisted on a 1-year one. After the meeting in Paris, the positions of the Russian gas company began to be seriously adjusted. President Vladimir Zelensky said that Gazprom began talking about 3 years, and Kiev itself would arrange the option “somewhere in the middle.” Feeling weakness, the Ukrainian authorities began to press harder. Alexei Orzhel, Minister of Energy of the Independent, said:

I can say with confidence that from January we will receive gas transit taking into account Ukrainian interests. First, one year was discussed, then three, and now they are potentially looking for a longer period.


It turns out that our forecast about 3-5 years has hit the nail on the head. It remains to wait for official confirmation from Gazprom.

What volumes of supplies can they agree on?


Kiev demanded to fill its GTS to the maximum, and Moscow insisted on the level of 10-15 billion cubic meters annually. We assumed that in the end Gazprom would be inclined to a level of 40 billion cubic meters, that is, "somewhere in the middle." We learn the real numbers from official sources. As for the procurement of Russian gas for Nezalezhnaya’s own needs, there are two important nuances that must be taken into account.

President Zelensky approved the decision of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, according to which measures to diversify energy supplies should be worked out next year. From one source will come no more than 30% of oil, gas and anthracite. In addition, the scheme with a “virtual reverse” gas allows you to make good money to those responsible people who are involved in it. A return to direct deliveries from Russia will destroy some profitable schemes.

Will Gazprom pay fines and compensation?


Yes it will. The leadership of the state corporation has lost everything that is possible in European courts. Failure to pay will result in the arrest of her property in the EU and the enforcement of debts at his expense.
Photos used: https://censoru.net
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  1. 123 Offline
    123 (123) 15 December 2019 11: 01
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    It remains to publish an article with a forecast of a contract for 1-2 years and a pumping volume of 15-35 billion cubic meters annually, that Gazprom will pay everything, you can leave it unchanged, otherwise no one will be indignant and the Nostradamus cup for the 2019 season will be provided. good It’s very similar to the stories about the planet Nibiru, I’ll go away with a mean tear, crying again, everything was gone. sad

    1. Conn Offline
      Conn (Conn) 17 December 2019 02: 30
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      Europe and the United States have long been in the topic that the leader of Siberian Cranes is weak and follow, and NEVER keeps his word, for him, "partners" are EVERYTHING, and Russia and its citizens are Tenth !!!
      PS The MINIMUM contract for 5 years with a minimum pumping volume of at least 60 billion cubic meters and the payment of all the requirements of the Nazi Outskirts !!!
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. Aleksis Miller Offline
        Aleksis Miller (Aleksis Miller) 17 December 2019 07: 48
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        Pay or go ...
        1. 321 Offline
          321 (321) 17 December 2019 08: 19
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          In your case, there is a long time ago - “WOULD I go, but YOUR turn” bully
          So go ahead ...
  2. Afinogen Offline
    Afinogen (Afinogen) 15 December 2019 11: 33
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    Does Gazprom know that he has surrendered and is going to pay compensation?
    1. Nick Offline
      Nick (Nikolai) 16 December 2019 22: 46
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      Quote: Athenogen
      Does Gazprom know that he has surrendered and is going to pay compensation?

      Where from ?! Marzhetsky does not work in Gazprom. As for transit, the GDP constantly insists that it is FOR transit. The only condition is that the transit conditions be beneficial to Gazprom. Therefore, it is likely that there will be Ukrainian transit. Not all the same in Naftogaz maydanutye. But there is no 100% guarantee. Svidomye have Svidomo. Ukraine is now an irrelevant, poorly managed state of Natsik, Gopnik and comedians. Normal people are far from political life.
    2. Aleksis Miller Offline
      Aleksis Miller (Aleksis Miller) 17 December 2019 07: 49
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      In the know, in the know, and you know that you will again raise prices, and not only for gas! ???
  3. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 15 December 2019 11: 40
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    Quote: Athenogen
    Gazprom capitulates: Kiev will receive both transit and compensation

    You are still at the stage of denial and anger. I believe that Gazprom has already moved from depression to adoption. request
    1. boriz Offline
      boriz (boriz) 15 December 2019 12: 32
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      What did Miller say?
    2. colyanpirogov Offline
      colyanpirogov (Nikolai Pirogov) 16 December 2019 16: 30
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      Seryozha ... wink you seem to be writing the fifth article about the same thing ... winked Not tired !? The people are tired already! ... Go to something more interesting !!! You have already spoken out on this subject ... negative
  4. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 15 December 2019 11: 41
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    Well, see you soon. smile
    1. 123 Offline
      123 (123) 15 December 2019 13: 06
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      Well, see you soon

      Gold words. good It remains only to clarify what exactly we will see which of the forecasts will come true. I look forward to an article about 1-2 years. So to speak, announce the whole list. sad In the meantime, stay in euphoria.
  5. steelmaker Offline
    steelmaker 15 December 2019 12: 43
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    Given that Putin NEVER comes off with a trump card, but only wins off his trump cards, everything is logical. And GAZ is the trump card. But given that the families of our rulers have entrenched in Europe and the USA, Putin will sign everything, but they will not "strip naked." Lowering the rating is not beneficial to anyone and is not necessary.
  6. boriz Offline
    boriz (boriz) 15 December 2019 13: 04
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    It's time to stop referring to Ukrainian figures. Irresponsible trepachki.
    Zelensky recently harnessed that there would be no decentralization of power. So what?
    I heard from Putin that without a zero option for claims, there will be no contract. He has not said anything else.
    And stopping transit will depend on this. And from access to direct gas supplies.
    The term of the contract does not matter if there are no ties to transit minima. The growth of gas consumption in Europe is possible, so that Ukraine can be on the catch even further. They profiled the role of the main transit. By my own stupidity.
    Of course, Gazprom can calculate the volume safe for itself and drive it into the contract, but Ukraine still has to move at the transit price. While it is unacceptable.
    The payment of fines is relevant (possibly) only from November 2020. But by this time, much will change, including, even the decision on the latest fine may change. The decision will be in November a common package.
    And we must clearly understand that in the event of the termination of transit, Ukraine will be to blame. She signed up to European law. The fact that they did not have time to complete everything is their personal difficulties. It was almost 5 years old, and started this fall. By agreeing to conclude a contract, Gazprom does a great favor.
    And, according to the same third energy package, they are obliged to provide transit even in the absence of an agreement. There is such a situation.
    If they warn that they will take gas (and they already warned), then ours will calmly shut off the valve.
    If they continue to take gas silently during the continuation of transit, they will be to blame, and we will turn off the valve after 36 hours, when the required amount of gas does not appear at the outlet. Again they are to blame and thieves.
    I think Gazprom, a few days before the New Year, will formally request Ukraine’s position in case supplies continue without a contract. And, depending on the reaction, it will decide to close the valve.
    Something like that.
  7. polev66 Offline
    polev66 (Alexander) 15 December 2019 13: 07
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    From the series, one grandmother said. The prize of the chief graphomaniac is provided.
  8. boriz Offline
    boriz (boriz) 15 December 2019 13: 18
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    Yes, yet, about the wide road to Europe, American gas to Europe. There is no American gas, this is a myth. Even Trump always talks about gas produced in the United States. This is a big difference. Some American companies can supply about 10% of Gazprom’s supply to the European market. And then, a significant part of it will be from Yamal.
    About 30% of gas from Gazprom - I believe with pleasure. But they lived in recent years without "aggressive gas." Now 30% will be taken from Gazprom, 30% from Slovakia, 30% from Romania and 10% from Switzerland. True, all this gas will be Russian (no arguing against geography and geology), but who cares about such trifles? With coal about the same.
    Great Britain receives 70% of the coal used from the Russian Federation and is not steamed. Well, the proud descendants of the Sumerians will come up with some kind of trouble. It’s necessary to cut money.
  9. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 15 December 2019 13: 34
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    Quote: 123
    Well, see you soon

    Gold words. good It remains only to clarify what exactly we will see which of the forecasts will come true. I look forward to an article about 1-2 years. So to speak, announce the whole list. sad In the meantime, stay in euphoria.

    You are a very funny character. smile
  10. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 15 December 2019 13: 35
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    Quote: boriz
    And we must clearly understand that in the event of the termination of transit, Ukraine will be to blame. She signed up to European law. The fact that they did not have time to complete everything is their personal difficulties.

    No, these are the problems of Gazprom, which pledged to deliver gas to the Slovak border.
    1. boriz Offline
      boriz (boriz) 15 December 2019 14: 08
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      There is force majeure in any contract.
      And Ukraine should act as part of the third energy package.
      Or - Open Sеason, or - transit without a contract. Choose what you want and do not deny yourself anything.
      They MUST provide transit. We are not required to conclude a contract.
    2. boriz Offline
      boriz (boriz) 15 December 2019 14: 21
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      Understand a simple thing: Kobolev and Vitrenko fulfill a political order. Scramble until there is no one else to talk to. The new transit facility is not certified (well, who would have thought? Didn’t have time!), After the New Year, they are not responsible for the gas transit for anything, so they shit as they can. And ours are also serving a room, what's the point of describing conversations with an empty spot. Refusing meetings is not good; we are always open for communication. But we did not guarantee the results. We talked, exchanged offers and left, thinking over proposals.
      Here, in oil, both of these clowns behave quieter than water, below the grass. Therefore, the contract was concluded for 10 years and no worries, they still have to work with us.
    3. 123 Offline
      123 (123) 15 December 2019 18: 58
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      No, these are the problems of Gazprom, which pledged to deliver gas to the Slovak border.

      What, is it directly written? Contracts were concluded with specific countries, it is logical to assume a common condition - delivery to the consumer's country, and not to Slovakia. Or am I missing something and the contract is concluded with the entire European Union? Or is Slovakia a subcontractor and is engaged in transportation from the border?
    4. Nick Offline
      Nick (Nikolai) 16 December 2019 22: 54
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      Quote: Marzhetsky
      No, these are the problems of Gazprom, which pledged to deliver gas to the Slovak border

      Gazprom cannot be held responsible for the actions of an organization outside its control - the owner of the gas pipeline.
  11. Screw Offline
    Screw (Gennady) 15 December 2019 17: 29
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    Gazprom is not angry or capitulating; Gazprom is focusing.

    A. M. Gorchakov

    The well-known formula of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Ingushetia in 1856, which led to the creation of Germany. Is history repeating itself?
  12. The comment was deleted.
  13. yury semru Offline
    yury semru (yury semru) 15 December 2019 21: 10
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    Not at all in the suit.
  14. Upmost Offline
    Upmost (Innocent) 15 December 2019 21: 25
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    Will Gazprom pay fines and compensation?

    Yes it will. The leadership of the state corporation has lost everything that is possible in European courts. Failure to pay will result in the arrest of her property in the EU and the enforcement of debts at his expense

    Here. What was required to prove - not cool, nothing to puff.
    And how much pathos was there in 2015, when “Gas-Prém (and we take dollars)” claimed that after 2019 Ukraine would be Kaput.
    And in general she fall apart / freeze / die of hunger / turn into a wild floorе (Underline whatever applicable).
  15. Evgeny Karpov Offline
    Evgeny Karpov (Eugene Karpov) 15 December 2019 23: 31
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    It seems to me that I had to squeeze Natsik after the boiler near Ilovaisk. Are you smart? Reinsured?
    1. S.V.YU Offline
      S.V.YU 16 December 2019 10: 53
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      On what basis are Gazprom's management paid MILLIONAL “salaries” and bonuses? They are cowardly mediocrity !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  16. Tektor Offline
    Tektor (Tektor) 16 December 2019 11: 56
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    We cannot help paying or driving gas through Ukraine: we must not feed the Nazis, i.e. lose the results of WWII. This is a fundamental point. Since the EU in every possible way slowed down bypass flows, let them slurp the consequences with a full spoon. They themselves are to blame. Gas will rise in price.
  17. boriz Offline
    boriz (boriz) 16 December 2019 12: 31
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    Well, the cherry on the cake:

    https://ria.ru/20191213/1562323802.html

    TRANSIT WILL NOT BE.
  18. kriten Offline
    kriten (Vladimir) 16 December 2019 13: 18
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    Any agreement is a betrayal of Russia. It’s a crime to feed a Nazi state that is on its feet. It must be strangled by all means ...
  19. Victor N Offline
    Victor N (Victor n) 16 December 2019 14: 07
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    The notes of a certain gloating are felt even in the title. Why?! But still: no disaster is foreseen, the situation is not critical.
  20. Upmost Offline
    Upmost (Innocent) 16 December 2019 14: 48
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    Quote: Tektor
    ... we should not feed the Nazis

    And you do not feed them. They are - intermediate pointthrough which gas (dollar-bearing) comes in a hated EU that pays you US dollars which and feed the Russian Federation.
    No one needs his own wooden one. And you can’t buy anything for it.
    And you have to buy oh how much.
    So, this is the EU feeds the Russian Federation (US dollars). and Ukraine is an intermediate link.
    1. Nick Offline
      Nick (Nikolai) 16 December 2019 23: 08
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      Quote: UpperMost
      And you do not feed them. They are an intermediate point through which gas (dollar-bearing) is delivered to the hated EU

      We did not introduce sanctions against the EU, it was they who started. Hence the conclusion: the EU has to take hated gas from hated Russia.

      Quote: UpperMost
      No one needs his own wooden one. And you can’t buy anything for it.

      You were in Russia the last time thirty years ago. Now for the Russian ruble you will buy everything you need, and dollars, and euros, and Svidomo hryvnia, and the whole Ruin with giblets.
    2. 123 Offline
      123 (123) 21 December 2019 13: 49
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      So, this is the EU feeds the Russian Federation (US dollars). And Ukraine is an intermediate link.

      Tired of this link in the perineum, too much attention is paid to it.
  21. Dzafdet Offline
    Dzafdet (Sergei) 16 December 2019 17: 34
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    From the series "I will part the clouds" ... So far nothing is clear .. Here they will publish the contract, then we will find out ...
  22. boriz Offline
    boriz (boriz) 16 December 2019 17: 59
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    Transit from 01.01.2020 will not. For a very prosaic reason.

    https://ria.ru/20191213/1562323802.html

    13.12.2019/XNUMX/XNUMX The deadline for filing applications for gas through UkROGTS by EUROPEAN gas operators has expired. No applications have been submitted. Finita la comedy.
    Western gas operators explained to Panam Koboleva and Vitrenko that their place was near the bucket. Because Western gas operators are tied to Gazprom in the same way as Gazprom is with them. If someone tries to hurt Gazprom, it hurts Western gas operators. And this is fraught.
    If it’s not clear already, I’ll explain: European gas operators have taken responsibility for the termination of transit through ukroGTS.
  23. olbert Offline
    olbert (Albert) 16 December 2019 18: 45
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    This is a fee for giving Ukraine to the Americans.
  24. bear040 Offline
    bear040 16 December 2019 19: 34
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    Gas pipelines bypassing Ukraine will continue to be built, so that soon the need for a Ukrainian pipe will completely disappear, and the reason for refusing transit through Ukraine will soon be completely obvious. A pipe without repair will fall apart and alternative methods of gas delivery will appear, independent of the vagaries of an independent one .. So, tomorrow Ukraine will have to pay in full for what it does today, and in vain there are some who think that Russia will forget and forgive, not to be .
  25. rusich Offline
    rusich (rusich) 17 December 2019 07: 04
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    The national treasure is catching up. For the population they will raise the price of gas.
  26. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
    Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 18 December 2019 17: 13
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    Gazprom will STOP transit until March 2020. If winter continues in the same vein, gas will be withdrawn from storage facilities in February, the price will drop, and Gazprom simply has nowhere to add gas. Export for the next year (subject to a warm winter) will amount to only 100 billion cubic meters - 25% less than in 2018.
    So, even with the agreement, Ukraine is not needed yet. Till March.
  27. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 22 December 2019 12: 29
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    Quote: Nick
    Quote: Marzhetsky
    No, these are the problems of Gazprom, which pledged to deliver gas to the Slovak border

    Gazprom cannot be held responsible for the actions of an organization outside its control - the owner of the gas pipeline.

    Really? Why then did they sign such an agreement, according to which it should?
  28. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 22 December 2019 12: 29
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    Quote: olbert
    This is a fee for giving Ukraine to the Americans.

    So.