Disruption of the heating season: Germany expects surrender from Gazprom


Germany prophesies Russia's defeat in the upcoming "gas war." German specialists from the Institute for the Study of economics Power engineers at the University of Cologne (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut, EWI) have calculated that Gazprom itself, as well as several countries in Southern Europe, will remain the loser from stopping transit through the Ukrainian GTS.


Как сообщает well-known German publication DW, the EU gas market has changed dramatically over the past 10 years:

In no EU country will energy security be in jeopardy, and in all of the scenarios considered.


What are these scenarios? There are two of them: warm winter and cold. But a real crisis, according to EWI calculations, will not happen with any of them. The fact is that the "gas war" ten years ago taught Europeans a lot.

At firstThe EU has seriously diversified its sources of gas production. Nord Stream-1 was put into operation, and if necessary, all restrictions on its operation will be promptly removed. Numerous LNG terminals have been built.

Secondly, large investments were made in the development of gas transportation infrastructure, which will allow to more quickly resolve the issue of the transfer of "blue fuel" within the EU in various directions.

Thirdly, Europeans and Gazprom itself pumped their underground gas tanks in advance.

In aggregate, this means that from January 1, 2020, the EU will definitely not remain without gas. Another question is that prices for it will rise, but here everything will not be critical.

In the event that the winter is, as promised, quite warm, the cost of "blue fuel" in the northern EU countries will increase in the range from 3% to 10%. At the same time, South Europe - Romania, Bulgaria and Greece, where growth will be 18%, 24% and 45% respectively, is the least fortunate. If weather forecasters, as usual, deceive, and frost begins, then for the Greeks gas will go up to 56%, for the Germans, instead of 5%, growth will be 7%. In terms of money, it all looks like this: in three months of a warm winter, Europeans will spend an additional 1,5 billion euros if they lose Ukrainian transit, and 2,1 billion when they are cold.

The German scientists named Gazprom the main victim, because its Nord Stream-1 and Yamal-Europe are not enough to fulfill contractual obligations, which is guaranteed by the next multibillion-dollar fines. In addition to fines, our “national treasure” will not receive 3,4 billion euros for a missed European heating season. In addition, the monopolist will fall for money, forced to buy expensive LNG in order to try to plug holes in the EU energy balance and try to fulfill its obligations.

Quite cynically, however, German experts say that Ukraine’s losses in the event of transit termination will amount to only 0,5 billion euros. To be honest, all this looks like a call for surrender: "Russian, give up!".
Used photos: http://zazhizn.com.ua/
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  1. Sapsan136 Offline
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 7 December 2019 11: 28
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    Russia will benefit from the cessation of transit and deliveries to Ukraine, because it does not have to invest a lot of money in the repair of the Ukrainian pipe, in fact, as a gift, but this is exactly what Ukraine wants, I’m not talking about regular gas theft and absurd accusations of the Russian Federation of monopolization supplies, as if someone was stopping Ukraine from buying gas from Norway and the US ...
    1. Ky Ky Offline
      Ky Ky 7 December 2019 17: 05
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      Let's see next year what kind of a hole will be in the budget from such a benefit.) As for the non-fulfillment of contracts, in principle, ships flying the Russian flag already carry liquefied from Texas to Europe. I think that Gazprom will simply outbid him with delivery to Europe. Well, what - it was necessary to think earlier.
      1. Sapsan136 Offline
        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 7 December 2019 17: 23
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        Let's see what hole will be in the budget of Ukraine, especially if all the Gaster and patriots of Ukraine, lost in the Russian Federation, are forcibly sent to their homeland ... But the Russian Federation has a joint venture, and TP, and supplies to China ... In addition, the Russian Federation spends huge money for feeding all sorts of Kyrgyzstan, which is useless and not justified ... It's time to end this too ...
    2. A.Lex Offline
      A.Lex (Secret information) 8 December 2019 10: 21
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      Sapsan, I don’t know if Russia will win or lose if gas supplies to the geyropa are reduced ...........................
      I understand one thing PERFECTLY - ALL EU COUNTRIES (without exception) WILL RECEIVE A TREATING SHOCK ON ITS ECONOMY !!!
      You will ask why? And the answer has been published more than once (including in THEIR media) - all EU countries (and Germany at the head) will be forced to buy LNG from the Amer for the sake of which, in fact, this whole “circus with horses” has been started (read from coup-maidan and sanctions, primarily against Gazprom). And now, “cherry on the cake” - all this was done, is being done and will be done because the GOODS in the EU (in the EU) are cheaper than the Amer ones, and in Yankistan itself there is another overproduction crisis (how many were there already? AND ALWAYS way out of there were WAR!!!) ... To fight? With whom? With NATO Allies? Well ... well, greenbacks have been creeping for a long time, but they should not be considered idiots. After all, war is an extreme measure to solve the problem, but for now - they bend the geyropu (and it’s not used to it for the past 75 years) both in the tail and in the mane ... especially when the amers in the leadership of the European Union have their people on all posts !!! Yes, and fight with Russia ... who knows ... though not the USSR already ... but not Libya-Iraq ... still shandarahnet ... until the destruction ... such a picture ...
      .......... and nothing can be said about ordinary inhabitants of this misunderstanding, who is called geyes - they can completely rebel ... although ... THIS is not used to it when they bend ... it's for you not under the USSR, when it was possible to protest - here it is possible to get a head from the "most democratic government" ...
      1. bear040 Offline
        bear040 8 December 2019 13: 40
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        Not quite so ... For the coming winter, the EU will be provided with gas (at least a steam locomotive - Germany and France), and until next winter they will complete the construction of SP-2 ... After which transit through Ukraine will no longer be important and unnecessary .. . Those who bent under the United States will suffer ... such as Bulgaria, but they do not weigh or cost anything in the EU, they are just territories with cheap labor .... NATO Turkey has fought against NATO Greece from Cyprus and now they are on knives ... NATO is not one country, everyone has their own interests there and they are for everyone above all.
  2. Igor Pavlovich Offline
    Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 7 December 2019 12: 08
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    Russians give up! You are surrounded! No chance! Your further actions are a waste of time and effort. We offer the commander n / a Putin and the rest dry clothes, hot tea and our hospitality!

    “In the Zone of Special Attention” - the action-packed film directed by Andrei Malyukov in 1977.
  3. Warrior Offline
    Warrior 7 December 2019 13: 29
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    Russia must reduce the supply of CHEAP Russian gas to Europe, let Europe buy EXPENSIVE and lower-quality American LNG, while European products will also become EXPENSIVE and Russia will be able to sell its more competitive PRICE Russian products to Europe (machines, machines, chemicals, meat, etc.) .p.), while earning more profit than from the sale of just Russian gas.
    And also because of this, European manufacturers will be interested and forced to provide their technologies and invest in Russia, which will improve the Russian economy, increase the Russian budget and GDP, reduce Russian unemployment ....
    1. Igor Pavlovich Offline
      Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 7 December 2019 13: 40
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      This is how Ostap Bender told about New Vasyuki ...
    2. Ky Ky Offline
      Ky Ky 7 December 2019 17: 11
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      Yes, and who is stopping Russia, for example, selling Turkey not grain, but value-added flour ?? And it turns out silly, we sell them grain, they make flour and pastries from it, and drive them to Europe - and they get huge profits. Also, why are we selling wood to finals - why not finished products ?? And about the metal - we mainly sell rental. We, like, have cheap energy and the whole barrier remains - and then they drive to themselves and there they make machines / machines, etc. Who's stopping us from doing here ??? And who is stopping Gazprom from gasifying our country itself ?? Not for 300 thousand to connect the house, but at a normal, real price ?? The West is again to blame ...
      1. 123 Offline
        123 (123) 8 December 2019 03: 19
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        Ku-ku it and in Africa ku-ku. smile
    3. Arkharov Offline
      Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 8 December 2019 08: 58
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      ..with this, European products will also become EXPENSIVE and Russia will be able to sell its more competitive Russian products to Europe at a PRICE.

      - I haven’t read more stupidity lately.
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    4. Victor N Offline
      Victor N (Victor n) 8 December 2019 13: 08
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      Yes, warrior. Only realize it is difficult and not fast. But the process is going on.
  4. steelmaker Offline
    steelmaker 7 December 2019 13: 42
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    The Germans made the right conclusion. Gazprom is bold and tough only with its citizens and not with everyone. And in Europe, he signs everything without even reading it, which is why he “rakes” fines. “Shoals” has done too much, since Putin has started talking and persuading them?
    1. A.Lex Offline
      A.Lex (Secret information) 8 December 2019 09: 48
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      Stalevar, the only time I have to agree with you ... the quarterly increase in prices for network gas and for that VGGO ... is already sick ... (I work in this structure myself, so I know).
  5. Vkd dvk Offline
    Vkd dvk (Victor) 7 December 2019 17: 11
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    The cessation of transit through dill will force Europe to take a different look at its client. The people do not care about the political interests of the upper class fraternizing with the Ukrainian fascists. They need warmth. And bacchanalia in the streets, for any reason, will put the rejoicing difficulties of Russia on the horns.
  6. Vkd dvk Offline
    Vkd dvk (Victor) 7 December 2019 17: 14
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    Quote: steel maker
    The Germans made the right conclusion. Gazprom is bold and tough only with its citizens, and even not with everyone. And in Europe, he signs everything without even reading it, which is why he raises fines. “Shoals” has done too much, since Putin has started talking and persuading them?

    Talking on the eve of winter and future disasters is one thing. Let's see what they will say when the crowd goes out, following the example of today's yellow vests. Requiring heat. Interestingly, it will be blue vests?
    1. 123 Offline
      123 (123) 8 December 2019 03: 20
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      Interestingly, it will be blue vests?

      Rather, body armor.
  7. Bakht Offline
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 7 December 2019 17: 24
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    So will there be a "breakdown of the heating season" or not? Points 1 and 3 say that Gazprom has nothing to worry about. Paragraph 2 says that Europe also has nothing to worry about.
    The article is so controversial that you don’t even know who wrote it ....
    And the recipe is suggested in the article itself. It is enough for Gazprom to buy gas from NOVATEK and send it to Europe, then there will be no fines ...
    1. 123 Offline
      123 (123) 8 December 2019 03: 24
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      So will there be a “breakdown of the heating season" or not?

      But the devil knows, this author, most importantly, stir up, and then figure it out yourself.

  8. zenitovets Offline
    zenitovets (Ivan) 7 December 2019 19: 26
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    Germany rolled her lip to the loss of Gazprom? Hold your pocket wider!
  9. Screw Offline
    Screw (Gennady) 7 December 2019 20: 29
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    Not a single infection allows you to see files with economic calculations and will not. Here's how to live, how to learn how to count? Golem arguments do not count - you can’t put them into Librecalc.
  10. nznz Offline
    nznz (Igor) 7 December 2019 22: 36
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    Decreasing supplies abroad - well, let them go to Europe, will finally make Gazprom pay attention to Russian gas structures - they fight so much for gas that they stand on end, everyone who tried to get gas into their house knows this. 50 m of pipe - the TK project and so on and so forth - runs up so much and you will not refuse. Let the gasification of their country begin.
    1. Victor N Offline
      Victor N (Victor n) 8 December 2019 13: 17
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      No one does anything for nothing. So who SHOULD pay for the gasification of YOUR home?
      1. nznz Offline
        nznz (Igor) 9 December 2019 14: 52
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        No need to twitch. I do not speak for free. You are probably far from the topic of gasification of your own home. I'll tell you how much it costs, it cost me 3 years ago in the Nizhny Novgorod region. There are gas pipes in the village, this is not all over again. To the house - from the pipe - 50 m. It cost me 220 thousand. I am not a millionaire, I didn’t steal, and, alas, a pensioner. So, if you are so attentive - tell me, 220 thousand for 50 m is it normal, in your opinion? The pipe is ordinary, painted with yellow paint, and then I painted it myself - such is the requirement. And there is no one to run to - a monopolist, be it wrong. But the Antimonopoly Committee does not see. There work on 50 thousand rubles. For each house, he gives out a standard solution, as if for a newly designed one, here he is already deceiving. Yes, there the pioneer will draw a solution. They charge mainly for printing and permission. I can say that it takes a huge amount of time, because citizens always sit there and wait in line. We have no time - then with his wife tumbled from morning to evening. The house is a shield, simple, Kazan factory, not the estate of a billionaire. We hired for 20 thousand people-decal, a former employee of the local Gazprom - he went instead of us for 2-3 months at authorities. If it hadn’t traveled, then all this would have been stretched for a year, or even more. On electricity, too, something like this, a little easier and cheaper. My house is on 2 lines of an ordinary village street, 41 km from the city, everything is there. So the pillar at my expense, and everything else. Tell me again - and who? Yes, of course, I’m only much less, cheaper, if you count humanly and take care of the people. Well, why do not I give installments for 20 years, adding a hundred rubles to the electricity bill. In 20 years I will repay even from retirement. And also gas - distribute the cost of work for 20 years - and subtract it in the payment. The most accurate payers are citizens.
        1. Ravshan Offline
          Ravshan (Jamsut) 9 December 2019 18: 58
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          Quote: nznz
          To the house - from the pipe - 50 m. It cost me 220 thousand

          Don't be so upset.
          Those of your neighbors who did not do it for 220 thousand will make 500 thousand a little later.
          It will be necessary for Gazprom to somehow and somewhere to cover losses.
  11. Levius RU Offline
    Levius RU (Levius RU) 8 December 2019 15: 08
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    Maybe we’ll just throw a bomb at the Germans? What difference does it make anyway.
  12. Vkd dvk Offline
    Vkd dvk (Victor) 8 December 2019 18: 08
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    Quote: nznz
    Decreasing supplies abroad - well, let them go to Europe, will finally make Gazprom pay attention to Russian gas structures - they fight so much for gas that they stand on end, everyone who tried to get gas into their house knows this. 50 m of pipe - the TK project and so on and so forth - runs up so much and you will not refuse. Let the gasification of their country begin.



    Whining is not necessary. I can’t talk about the whole table, but as for Russia, I agree. The numbers are real.

    Gasification of the country. Take the USSR. With a gas cost of 4 kopecks per cubic meter, not a single one will pull a pipe to Siberia, to a town with a population of 20 thousand people. It’s cheaper not to weave hundreds of thousands of km of pipes around the country, but to spend one, but thick, and drive to Europe for REAL loot. So, our then (yes, and today's poverty in this matter), is caused by no cost of gas. Now that prices are moving where they need to, gasification has reached 70% in cities and 30% in the country as a whole.
    1. Vkd dvk Offline
      Vkd dvk (Victor) 8 December 2019 18: 26
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      I will continue. The reduction in gas supplies abroad cannot be offset by domestic supplies. Firstly, there are not so many buyers today who are provided with gas infrastructure. Further, even if billions are thrown to lay thousands of km of pipes across the country, equal supplies with foreign ones will not compensate anyway. Do you see the difference in price inside and out? Or see, but don’t understand? The result is a drop in deductions to the budget. And this is the maintenance of the army, police, and pensioners (I forgot about them, there are 38 million of them in the country). So, before farting, look around to see if anyone is nearby.

      By the way, in Sweden, almost half of their gas is bottled.
      So, if it’s difficult with the pipe, take the cylinders. Or organize a cooperative, and the crowd will do what is very dear to one.
      Get rid of Soviet freebies, brother. Start moving yourself.

      For example, I spent (with neighbors) in the house for my grandmothers.
      1. nznz Offline
        nznz (Igor) 9 December 2019 14: 56
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        Did you give an example in which, in addition to the Russian Federation, there are gas producing countries? Does the fact that we have a well affect the price somehow? Perhaps this price is higher than the real one?
        And further. Why so expensive? Maybe because Gazprom is half private? We nationalize it - and it will become the achievement of the republic (s). And the margin of oligarchs will leave the price. Can you tell what is its share in the price?
      2. nznz Offline
        nznz (Igor) 9 December 2019 15: 05
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        Good argument. If you carry gas into the house with a company of soldiers and distribute the cost to everyone - it will be almost free. My village is almost empty - there is a rich minimum, I could have been there, but as the common fund and requisitions introduced again, the hunt fell out. The neighbors are older than me, I am 67 for them over 70, and my grandfather for 80. They did not have gas and they do not need it. They come in short visits in summer - seasonal work. Boil the kettle with water. And I live constantly without any pain. And I need gas. It’s funny - but I had such a deceased father-in-law and mother-in-law - the 219 pipe seemed to go through their garden - and they turned to hook up, although I began to understand them when a fabulous sum was given to me. Another question is tormenting - Gazprom’s levy was not invested in the cost of a gas boiler? This is a common practice. All telephony is already paid off when the device is sold, and roaming will not be done in any way. We pay a huge subscriber - and all is not enough. The state has eliminated to the maximum. Everyone was blamed on citizens - democracy, the power of the people. The fact that citizens are divided (try to gather tenants for a meeting) is not taken into account. So one citizen comes out with a problem - and they tell him that you are a free person, sue. Then everyone understands that it is easier to sue an office with billions in turnover than an ordinary citizen.
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  14. Vkd dvk Offline
    Vkd dvk (Victor) 8 December 2019 18: 42
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    Quote: Ky Ky
    Yes, and who is stopping Russia, for example, selling Turkey not grain, but value-added flour ?? And it turns out silly, we sell them grain, they make flour and pastries from it, and drive them to Europe - and they get huge profits. Also, why are we selling wood to finals - why not finished products ?? And about the metal - we mainly sell rental. We, like, have cheap energy and the whole barrier remains - and then they drive to themselves and there they make machines / machines, etc. Who's stopping us from doing here ??? And who is stopping Gazprom from gasifying our country itself ?? Not for 300 thousand to connect the house, but at a normal, real price ?? The West is again to blame ...

    So who's stopping you from establishing a flour sales channel in Turkey? Trains, talk with the Turks, scout at what price and what quality they will take. If it turns out to be profitable, go ahead.
    But something tells me that in a more or less stable economy of Turkey, which has not experienced collapse, the war in Chechnya, sanctions and other things, it is profitable to rub grain in its mills, according to its own standards. And pour in profits from acquiring cheap grain in your pocket. If you can make the price lower than they have, and at the same time get your margin, go ahead.
    1. nznz Offline
      nznz (Igor) 9 December 2019 15: 18
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      Before you learn about flour, you need to ask how many flour mills we have and whether they will ensure uninterrupted supplies and the quality of flour. Better yet, start with grain - what is grown, what is supplied to the Russian Federation, and which is exported. Unfortunately, now is the time for stuffing pockets - everything that can be sold abroad is being driven. I remind you about gas prices in an oil-producing country. And about how gasoline suddenly disappears. It was? It was. We are building crackers - in order to recycle, that’s the way it is. But it’s easier to just push to the West without any idea and that's all, no hassle - the prepaid loot is already in your pocket. To oblige any resource trader to build factories processing his products according to the plan - then the fee can be adjusted by them to stimulate sensitive areas. Will need to bring them to life. The will for foreign policy, it seems, is what it is. But I still do not see to restrain my flayers, fluttering languidly.
  15. steelmaker Offline
    steelmaker 8 December 2019 18: 44
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    This is how to hit your head on a jamb or hit, so that the gas price of 4 kopecks is put up against the AUTHORITY ??????
    1. nznz Offline
      nznz (Igor) 9 December 2019 15: 12
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      Just then, Gazprom was state-owned. That's all. And now so much has sucked to the pipe that it cannot be fed. And it’s convenient - it’s only paid to those who drive gas abroad. And the rest of the people are a burden, aching and asking.
      It’s time to nationalize Gazprom to 100%, that's enough, the oligarchs are cracking their faces. And alcohol too - only introduce a state monopoly. Here are 2 pipes that can replenish the budget. Just afraid - it won’t help. Our budget is Exceeding Estimated. There is an accumulative fund, and that. They don’t know where to spend ... You can send them in retirement, increase them to 20-30 thousand. But without production we will eat them all. And production costs - does not develop, regression. It is being stolen on such a scale that I just don’t remember the time when they used to trill it in billions. I’ve noticed since 1952. Cotton cases at sunset of the USSR are seeds. It is not beneficial for the oligarchs to invest here. They invest in the West - and live. And then what the President asks for, they drop off with a trifle on a bridge or something else ..
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  17. Vkd dvk Offline
    Vkd dvk (Victor) 10 December 2019 00: 10
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    Quote: nznz
    Did you give an example in which, in addition to the Russian Federation, there are gas producing countries? Does the fact that we have a well affect the price somehow? Perhaps this price is higher than the real one?
    And further. Why so expensive? Maybe because Gazprom is half private? We nationalize it - and it will become the achievement of the republic (s). And the margin of oligarchs will leave the price. Can you tell what is its share in the price?

    Everything is measured by comparison. The size of the shoes with a ruler. Distance between cities - other units.

    If the monopolist of something there is a private trader, then his monopoly spoils the life of many buyers. Tension, strikes, turmoil ..... Of course, the state needs everything to be calm inside. You can, of course, disperse and shoot the discontented, but they will increase sooner or later ....
    It is better, of course, to destroy monopoly by creating and helping to create parallel production of the same. The state has many tools for this. TAXES. Superprofit crush supertaxes. Give a loan for the construction of production. The police can have a hand in restoring order at the monopoly. The ARMY finally is, if nothing helps.
    Believe me, the state will win sooner or later. But the question is, what if the monopolist is the state itself? It took, nationalized a hundred or two gas workers, and took it into their own hands, promising us mountains of diamonds. A monopolist, after all, is interested in conservation, isn't it? But then all the instruments stand in defense of the state monopoly.
    Want an example?
    Railways are completely state-owned. Try to compete. They will give permission to lay tracks, give the opportunity to rails, rail transfers, a contact network, stations, depots, wagons, and more ....?
    The state in the USSR owned everything. Therefore, backward technologies, and lousy quality and a shortage of everything. Forgot? Or were they even born later and did not see the queues, did not pay bribes in the store, did not start the blat? Do you want to do this again? Are you already tired of the full shelves in the store?
    And finally. Margin of the oligarch.

    VAZ car in the USSR had a wholesale price of 1000 rubles. This is the money that the manufacturer received. And in the store, this car cost 7000 rubles. 700% do not dream of anyone, no oligarchs. In the USA, production has a maximum of 6% profit per year. Otherwise, go broke on steeply rising taxes. Bill Gates donated $ 9 billion to charity. Here, just in order to reduce profits. This money is not taxed with them.
  18. Vkd dvk Offline
    Vkd dvk (Victor) 10 December 2019 00: 29
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    Quote: nznz
    Before you learn about flour, you need to ask how many flour mills we have and whether they will ensure uninterrupted supplies and the quality of flour. Better yet, start with grain - what is grown, what is supplied to the Russian Federation, and which is exported. Unfortunately, now is the time for stuffing pockets - everything that can be sold abroad is being driven. I remind you about gas prices in an oil-producing country. And about how gasoline suddenly disappears. It was? It was. We are building crackers - in order to recycle, that’s the way it is. But it’s easier to just push to the West without any idea and that's all, no hassle - the prepaid loot is already in your pocket. To oblige any resource trader to build factories processing his products according to the plan - then the fee can be adjusted by them to stimulate sensitive areas. Will need to bring them to life. The will for foreign policy, it seems, is what it is. But I still do not see to restrain my flayers, fluttering languidly.

    Can you think?
    Then think. If we subsidize bread, but it costs a penny on the free market, then God ordered us to sell abroad, God himself ordered, there the prices are several times higher.

    Admire. How much gas we have inside, and how much it costs abroad. It is clear why we have strained gasification in our country? And why do our STATE gas structures drive and will drive him there?

    What needs to be done so that the goods mainly remain and are sold within Russia? The answer is simple. The price inside should be equal to the foreign one. Then the seller does not care whom to sell. Salvage he will receive the same. But feed their = - is to feed their workers, who work for him, and give him a product. He instantly becomes a patriot.
    Further. Question. And will we pull these prices? Not. Our salary is many times less. What to do?
    The answer is simple- Pay the same.
    But, again, the question is, does our employee give as many products of the same quality as foreign ones?
    The answer is simple. NOT.
    The question is what to do?
    The answer is simple.
    The industrialization of the entire national economy, but not at the Stalin level, but at the most modern.

    Question- HOW?
    And here I have no answer. Not what.