Only China is the winner: “The Power of Siberia” will hardly pay off in 30 years


The other day there was a momentous event. In a festive atmosphere more reminiscent of the launch of the first starship, the Power of Siberia gas pipeline was launched. Since the contract for its construction was signed in 2014, after the "Crimean Spring" and Western sanctions, this project can be safely called a symbol of the Russian "turn to the East." Will the gas pipeline meet its expectations, and is it worth the wait for the Power of Siberia-2?


The Power of Siberia is the first gas pipeline from Russia to China, with a capacity of 38 billion cubic meters of gas per year. Construction took more than five years, its value increased from 800 billion rubles to 1.1 trillion. The sum of the 30-year gas supply contract was $ 400 billion. President Vladimir Putin said:

This step takes Russian-Chinese strategic cooperation in the energy sector to a qualitatively new level, brings us closer to solving the task set together with Chinese President Xi Jinping to bring bilateral trade to $ 2024 billion by 200.


Let’s try to honestly assess which of the partners will benefit from the pipeline, China or Russia, and whether it is worth posing the question in this way.

First of all, the “Power of Siberia” cannot be regarded as an instrument of pressure on Europe and Ukraine, no matter how much one would like. The resource base for it is the fields of Eastern Siberia - Chayandinskoye and Kovykta. At present, Russia does not have the opportunity to transfer gas from the European direction to the east in the event of a decrease in consumption, or even a complete abandonment of the EU by it. So what did Russia get?

At first, Gazprom gained access to the Chinese gas market with a guaranteed contract for the next three decades. The Russian pipeline will supply "blue fuel" to the north of China, where it has no serious competitors. LNG dominates on the coast of China, and Turkmen gas dominates in the west of the country. A year ago, Turkmenistan was not able to fully fulfill its obligations, which is why prices for LNG jumped sharply.

SecondlyThanks to the main pipeline, the process of gasification of Eastern Siberia and the Far East begins. For example, the Vostochny Cosmodrome and the adjacent infrastructure will be powered by the Power of Siberia. Due to the development of new fields, the Amur gas processing plant will be built, and a gas chemical one is also planned. This will close the country's domestic needs for gas chemistry products, as well as arrange its export.

ThirdlySuch a large-scale construction gave orders to enterprises of domestic metallurgy, manufacturers of gas compressor and other specialized equipment. Thousands of new jobs will appear at plants launched in the coming years, which will increase the attractiveness of the depressed Russian region. Along the way, appropriate infrastructure will develop, improving the quality of life of the local population.

These advantages are undoubted, but it is necessary to mention about the minuses.

From the moment the contract was signed, serious concerns have been raised about the price of gas for Beijing. The authorities hid it, which caused legitimate doubts about the commercial benefit of the contract, which could suffer because of political expediency. Recall that negotiations with the Chinese lasted for years, but triumphantly ended after a visit to China by Vladimir Putin, who proclaimed in 2014, against the backdrop of problems with the West, a "U-turn to the East."

Be that as it may, the terms of the contract were not the best, since the price in it was tied to oil quotes. Due to their fall, the cost of a thousand cubic meters of gas fell from $ 360 as of 2014 to the current 220-230. Therefore, some experts believe that the payback period of the project will be delayed, at best, until 2048. In addition, the Chinese “bailed” Russia by initiating a reform of the domestic gas market, which we told earlier. Beijing has gradually begun to move away from government tariffs in favor of floating prices. This step is openly directed against the “Power of Siberia”. Due to an oversupply of gas in China, prices for Gazprom will become even less profitable.

The most benefited from the Russian gas pipeline is still China, waging a trade war with the United States. Supplies needed for Chinese economics LNG going through the Strait of Malacca can be blocked by the American fleet, which is actively training there, allegedly, to fight with pirates. The blow will be serious, so Beijing in advance in 2014 and agreed to the construction of a "safety option" in the form of the "Force of Siberia".

It turns out that Russia has signed up to the fact that the next 30 years will be the “rear” for the PRC, but without any fantastic profit due to the seriously changing conditions for the worse. The question arises, why then negotiate the construction of the “Power of Siberia-2,” which will generally go to the region of China where it will encounter Turkmen gas? But the mega-construction, like the show, must go on.
Photos used: http://manoncomparini.fr/
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  1. Bakht Offline
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 December 2019 11: 42
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    Article - reprint from M. Krutikhin?
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. Marzhecki Offline
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 4 December 2019 12: 23
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      And where is the reprint? Does Krutikhin have any exclusive conclusions?
      1. Bakht Offline
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 December 2019 12: 50
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        Krutikhin has been talking about this for 5 years. And while I did not see other similar catastrophic conclusions.
        I already wrote yesterday. If the price of gas is tied to an oil basket, then, at a price of $ 65 per barrel, the price of gas for China is about $ 230 per thousand cubic meters. When designing the gas pipeline in 2014, the price of $ 75 per barrel was laid. And the gas price was planned to be slightly higher. Binding to oil is the right strategy. Phrase

        the terms of the contract were not the best, since the price in it was tied to oil quotes

        absolutely illiterate in terms of gas field development. Only with such a link can the development of new deposits begin.
        Pluses you noted in the article. Gasification of districts, jobs, a new plant.
        The Power of Siberia gas pipeline was coordinated for almost ten years and would have remained on paper if it had not been for disputes with Ukraine and problems with European buyers. In 2020, it is planned to pump only 5 billion cubic meters.
        A huge plus of the gas pipeline is the rejection of the transit and unpredictability of Western vessels.
        In any case: if Europe shouts about diversification of supplies, then the Russian Federation has the right to think about the same. Export diversification is vital.
        And the project itself will pay off quickly enough. Such projects are designed not for one year, but for decades.
        1. Ravshan Offline
          Ravshan (Jamsut) 4 December 2019 13: 17
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          Quote: Bakht
          If the price of gas is tied to an oil basket, then, at a price of $ 65 per barrel, the price of gas for China is about $ 230 per thousand cubic meters. When designing the gas pipeline in 2014, the price of $ 75 per barrel was laid. And the gas price was planned to be slightly higher. Snap to oil is the right strategy.

          Maybe the most correct one.
          Only in China does it not operate initially (China agreed to accept gas only on the terms of current market prices).
          And in Europe, Gazprom itself refused such prices voluntarily (after a lost trial with Poland and huge fines).
          Therefore, your 230 dollars per 1000 cubic meters, this is just the estimated cost of gas for calculating the payback of the Power of Siberia. But in reality there are no such prices.

          Quote: Bakht
          The Power of Siberia gas pipeline was coordinated for almost ten years and would have remained on paper if it had not been for disputes with Ukraine and problems with European buyers.

          If not for the shale revolution.
          And now, when it became clear that Gazprom was not a tenant, the right guys began to cut it with the construction of gas pipelines. Making loot precisely at this construction and transferring these “assets” to Gazprom on the balance sheet. Which in normal circles are called toxic.

          Quote: Bakht
          In 2020, it is planned to pump only 5 billion cubic meters.

          China does not need either the Power of Siberia or gas from it.
          Why it was built, see above.

          Quote: Bakht
          And the project itself will pay off quickly enough.

          Yeah. Hold your pocket wider.
          1. Bakht Offline
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 December 2019 13: 54
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            Only in China, it does not work initially (China agreed to accept gas only under the conditions of current market prices)

            Is this your speculation or is there a link? Because the article says

            the price in it was tied to oil quotes.

            So where is the truth written? Did the author of the article write a lie?
            1. Ravshan Offline
              Ravshan (Jamsut) 4 December 2019 14: 14
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              Quote: Bakht
              Is this your speculation or is there a link?

              This is a law adopted by the PRC.
              However, today this Law applies only to the Force of Siberia.
              East is a delicate matter.

              Quote: Bakht
              Because the article says

              What does the article say?

              Quote: Bakht
              So where is the truth written? Did the author of the article write a lie?

              I have not read the article.
              1. Bakht Offline
                Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 December 2019 14: 37
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                The law passed in China concerns domestic pricing in China itself. The fact that he belongs to the Power of Siberia is said only by M. Krutikhin.
                Have you read the article you are discussing? It is a masterpiece....
                1. Ravshan Offline
                  Ravshan (Jamsut) 4 December 2019 18: 22
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                  Quote: Bakht
                  The law passed in China concerns domestic pricing in China itself. The fact that he belongs to the Power of Siberia is said only by M. Krutikhin.

                  I somehow trust his opinion more than yours.

                  Quote: Bakht
                  Have you read the article you are discussing?

                  But I do not discuss the article.
                  1. Nick Offline
                    Nick (Nikolai) 5 December 2019 07: 42
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                    Quote: Ravshan
                    Quote: Bakht
                    The law passed in China concerns domestic pricing in China itself. The fact that he belongs to the Power of Siberia is said only by M. Krutikhin.
                    I somehow trust his opinion more than yours.

                    Opinion and truth are not the same thing. Facts are needed, not speculation.
                    1. Bakht Offline
                      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 5 December 2019 12: 24
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                      I agree to all 100. Is the text of the Law itself? What I found is about domestic consumption. To develop provinces and increase domestic production.
            2. 123 Online
              123 (123) 4 December 2019 17: 53
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              Is this your speculation or is there a link?

              He has no links. He draws information from the astral.
            3. Oyo Sarkazmi Offline
              Oyo Sarkazmi (Oyo Sarkazmi) 5 December 2019 12: 12
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              Quote: Bakht
              Is this your speculation or is there a link?

              The comrade has no idea where China or Russia is, and how they hang out there among themselves. His job is to edit the text issued by the computer and post to all Russian "walls." 10 cents per post.
        2. Arkharov Offline
          Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 5 December 2019 07: 53
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          A huge plus of the gas pipeline is the rejection of the transit and unpredictability of Western vessels.

          - Do you consider the possible actions of China to be predictable? That's where you do not know what to expect.
    3. 123 Online
      123 (123) 4 December 2019 17: 49
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      Article - reprint from M. Krutikhin?

      Not completely, they refer to his "most authoritative" opinion, in the article he goes under the pseudonym

      some experts

      A strange person from Rosenergo, a company that distributes electricity.
  2. Ravshan Offline
    Ravshan (Jamsut) 4 December 2019 11: 54
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    Only China is the winner: “The Power of Siberia” will hardly pay off in 30 years

    This is according to initial calculations, when gas prices were twice as high as modern ones.
    Now, and especially given the inevitable fall in gas prices in the future, it is clear that the Power of Siberia will NEVER pay off.
    But the pipeline is built.
    Grandmas for its construction received.
    This was the main goal of its construction. What Gazprom will do next with this (and others) suitcase without a handle is of no interest to anyone. It has long been (several years ago) written off, this Gazprom. Since in due time they quite correctly understood and appreciated the meaning of the shale revolution. Tea, not fools.
    1. gorenina91 Offline
      gorenina91 (Irina) 4 December 2019 13: 05
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      - My plus ...
      1. Ravshan Offline
        Ravshan (Jamsut) 4 December 2019 13: 41
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        Quote: gorenina91
        -My plus ...

        Thank you, madam.
  3. kriten Offline
    kriten (Vladimir) 4 December 2019 12: 27
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    Who needs it, drips from the beginning of construction and will drip all the time. And who in our country cares about payback. Even losses are easy to cover with geopolitics. The holy principle of any capitalism: losses to the state, profit to capitalism, acts always and everywhere.
    1. Ravshan Offline
      Ravshan (Jamsut) 4 December 2019 12: 36
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      Quote: kriten
      The holy principle of any capitalism: losses to the state, profit to capitalism, acts always and everywhere.

      Actually, this principle has nothing to do with capitalism. Since under capitalism it is simply impossible to realize.
      1. kriten Offline
        kriten (Vladimir) 4 December 2019 12: 41
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        Read the biographies of Krupp and other major capitalists. They transferred the unprofitable enterprises two or three times to the state for good money and then bought back for nothing. The source of any great wealth is always the budget ... Other examples are units like Jobs ... you have a look at capitalism with romanticism of the 91st year.
        1. Ravshan Offline
          Ravshan (Jamsut) 4 December 2019 13: 18
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          Quote: kriten
          Read the biographies of Krupp and other major capitalists. They transferred the unprofitable enterprises two or three times to the state for good money and then bought back for nothing.

          Funny.
          1. vvnab Offline
            vvnab (Vitali) 4 December 2019 21: 16
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            What is really funny is to read about “right” and “wrong” capitalism once again.
            1. Ravshan Offline
              Ravshan (Jamsut) 4 December 2019 22: 22
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              Quote: vvnab
              so it’s once again to read about “right” and “wrong” capitalism.

              This does not happen. Or capitalism is, or it is not.
              And the fact that some ignoramus calls capitalism that which is not capitalism is his problem. Capitalism called by him will not become capitalism from this.
              Capitalism has a clear academic definition.
              1. vvnab Offline
                vvnab (Vitali) 6 December 2019 23: 58
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                Capitalism has a clear academic definition.

                To the studio!
                1. The comment was deleted.
    2. Arkharov Offline
      Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 5 December 2019 07: 57
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      What kind of capitalism do we have?
  4. boriz Online
    boriz (boriz) 4 December 2019 12: 41
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    There is still a small moment. Before the border, the gas will undergo separation. Practically only methane will go to China. A high molecular weight fraction will remain in Russia. There will be gas processing plants (one is practically ready). They will produce, for example, plastics, which we now import and much more. We will use it at home and sell abroad. Already not pure raw materials, but products of a higher redistribution. To the Chinese, we sell, under a contract, gas for heating. Ecologicaly clean. Methane. But the Chinese will not be able to use it for processing. There will be nothing to recycle. And we will sell plastic to them too.
    The raw materials for these plants will be practically free. This will affect the cost of production.
    About the same Rosneft. Associated gas is used. It is being burned less and less. Here we are ahead of the rest.
    So, not everything is so bad.
  5. Vasil K. Offline
    Vasil K. (Vasil K.) 4 December 2019 12: 48
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    Strange insistence on the assertion that gas was smashed into China in the most unprofitable way ... I ask myself, and who is very unpleasant that the gas went to China through sea routes that are not possible blocked? Oh, I know! Oh, these 2% of corrupt, trying for silver pieces ...
  6. steelmaker Offline
    steelmaker 4 December 2019 12: 50
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    Putin has been in power for 20 years. He is building Europe, he is building China, he is building Turkey, and he only raises tariffs for his people and invents new taxes. They write everywhere, they speak in plain text, and fans already “change shoes” on the go, they don’t know how to justify “managers from the USE” already. The Russian people are "harnessing for a long time", and so that there will be no "accident" then we must say now: "Any other, but not Putin!" Maybe it will reach some by 2024?
    1. Bakht Offline
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 December 2019 13: 00
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      If gas is currently being sold to Europe by Gazprom for $ 170, and to China at 230 (this figure is indicated in the article), then what is the disadvantage? Maybe 170 more than 230?
      1. Ravshan Offline
        Ravshan (Jamsut) 4 December 2019 13: 20
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        Quote: Bakht
        If gas is currently being sold to Europe by Gazprom for $ 170, and to China at 230

        What nonsense!
        Gas in Asia is now really a few dollars more expensive than in Europe. But $ 230, it's just a fantasy.

        Quote: Bakht
        (this figure is indicated in the article)

        Is it enough that is indicated in the article?

        Quote: Bakht
        Maybe 170 more than 230?

        Maybe we should first ask about real prices?
        1. Bakht Offline
          Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 December 2019 13: 57
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          Take an interest. Yesterday, I gave a link that gas in Europe on a hub is sold for $ 160-170. This is official data. Gas in Asia has always been more expensive.
          Useless. Without links, I don’t believe you a penny.
          1. Ravshan Offline
            Ravshan (Jamsut) 4 December 2019 14: 11
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            Quote: Bakht
            Yesterday, I gave a link that gas in Europe on a hub is sold for $ 160-170.

            Not 160-170, but 145 dollars (at the end of the quarter).
            This is Gazprom according to its 3Q reports. In 2019, he sold it (with excise taxes and duties) on average at $ 169,8 per 1000 cubic meters.
            I see, huh?
            In July, he sold more expensive, and in September, cheaper. The result was 169,8.

            Quote: Bakht
            Gas in Asia has always been more expensive.

            Gas in Asia has ALWAYS been cheaper than in Europe. And significantly.
            But in the 3rd quarter. 2019, it TEMPORARY cost more than in Europe.
            This is due to supply volumes and in 4 square meters. 2019 the situation will be different.

            Quote: Bakht
            Without links, I don’t believe you a penny.

            It's your problem.
            1. Bakht Offline
              Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 December 2019 14: 39
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              Have you seen the schedule? Price is December 2, 2019. You still have not figured out in what units the schedule is there? 160-170 dollars per thousand cubic meters.
              All. Do not bother. Until you start to read and UNDERSTAND what is written, talking to you is useless.
              1. Ravshan Offline
                Ravshan (Jamsut) 4 December 2019 18: 24
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                Quote: Bakht
                Have you seen the schedule?

                There are thousands of such “charts” on the Internet. You can choose the one that you like best.
                However, there are objective figures. Including and from Gazprom itself. Take an interest.

                Quote: Bakht
                Until you start to read and UNDERSTAND what is written, talking to you is useless.

                Those. in your "arguments" you are at an impasse and you have nothing to hide.
                I understood.
      2. lev1759 Offline
        lev1759 (Eugene) 5 December 2019 21: 44
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        If gas is currently being sold to Europe by Gazprom for $ 170, and to China at 230 (this figure is indicated in the article), then what is the disadvantage? Maybe 170 more than 230?

        Gas to China is sold at a much higher price - about 350-400 dollars per thousand cubic meters ... Not much cheaper than liquefied. For one simple reason - the cost of building the pipeline itself. The price to him was announced to the Chinese by Putin. Those who remember the history of the signing of the treaty should know that before signing it, the Chinese thought for a day before deciding to do so. They were the initiators of maintaining the secret of gas prices, because the Turkmens sold gas to them much cheaper. The Chinese had no choice, for the Americans were implementing their plan, the so-called "Anaconda Loop". They surrounded, for the naval blockade, China with a network of naval bases in order to block the flow of energy, oil and liquefied gas to them at hour X. If this happened, then the Chinese economy collapsed within a month ... Therefore, the "Power of Siberia" for China has no alternative. Therefore, the second line and "Power of Siberia - 2" are laid in the project. By the way, because of the price of gas, China pouted our lips and refused to finance the construction of the pipeline itself, so we built it with our own money ...
        1. Bakht Offline
          Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 5 December 2019 23: 22
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          I do not agree with your arguments.
          The power of Siberia for China is currently uncritical. 5 billion cubic meters in 2020 and 10 billion in 2021 will not do the weather.
          The contract could not be settled for a long time precisely because of the price. Putin said in 2014 "very difficult negotiators." But it was critically important for Russia not to depend on Europe (diversification).
          The price of gas is tied to an oil basket and currently stands at 200 bucks (they say 230). Nobody announced the exact number. Neither China nor Gazprom.
          China did not pout. China has offered a loan of 25 billion dollars. Gazprom refused. Namely, in order not to reduce the price of gas. This is all on the Gazprom website.
          Turkmen gas is now sold at about the same price. 200-230 dollars per thousand cubic meters. The price of 360 dollars was announced in 2014, when a barrel was worth $ 100 per barrel. Now the price of oil is $ 65. The calculation formula is kept secret, but the principle is known. There is not so much the price of oil as fuel oil. More than $ 230 will not work.
          It is precisely because of this link that China’s domestic laws do not work with respect to export gas. I had to dig a bunch of information in two days. The law was adopted as part of China’s fuel and energy program. 29 districts of China can now independently choose suppliers at market prices. The main emphasis is on Shanxi. This is the largest coal region of China. And there are large reserves of oil shale. Since China is not very sensitive to the environment and other "green" organizations, it is planned (!) To develop shale deposits. And then, maybe inside China, the price will fall. But who said export gas prices will fall? There is a link to the oil basket, whether you like it or not, but in 30 years China will pay 400 billion, and Gazprom will supply the agreed amount of gas.
          I also read about surplus gas in China. But all these are words without specifics. A specific fact is as follows. With an excess of gas, China asked Gazprom to increase gas supplies from 4 billion to 5 billion in 2020. How to explain this, Krutikhin and the HSE adherents cannot explain.
          And finally, by the Power of Siberia-2. This pipeline is not so much needed by China as the Russian Federation. The exploitation of gas fields has its own nuances. There you can’t just screw the valve, as in the kitchen. Contracts with Europe are about to end. Poland wants to abandon Russian gas. What to do with this gas? The power of Siberia-2 allows you to redirect gas flows from European to Chinese direction. Therefore, it will certainly be built. And then the Young Europeans can refuse as much as they like. Blackmail will not work.
          Sorry for the long message. But it doesn’t work out briefly.
          1. Bakht Offline
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 5 December 2019 23: 33
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            And further. Regarding the blockade, embargo and other nasty things that the States can arrange for China.
            10 years ago in the book of E. Laurent "Oil. Lies. Falsifications." there was an interview with professors of the Higher Party School of China. It was clearly said, "China is not interested in oil prices. China is interested in uninterrupted supplies."
            There are two bottlenecks in world oil trade. Persian and Malacca straits. In the Persian Gulf, China has already deployed its anti-ship missile systems and sold Iran a bunch of technologies for air defense and anti-ship missile systems. And the Strait of Malacca is part of China’s second security zone. Therefore, China is equipping the Paracel Islands. And before the heap, he laid down the construction of 11 aircraft carriers at once in the planning of the Navy. They are not such mastodons as T. Roosevelt, but they can carry 50-60 aircraft each.

            PS By the way, the reason for the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor was the oil blockade of Japan. This is just a fact from history.
            1. Bakht Offline
              Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 6 December 2019 00: 03
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              Here is some more info:

              The naval doctrine of the PLA Navy began to be developed from the late 1980s. and was officially proclaimed in 1995. It is based on the "Active Defense Strategy", which envisages the creation of a Navy and the Air Force supporting them, capable of not only repelling aggression from the sea, but also providing for preventive strikes, including and on the ocean theater. It was stated that:
              at the first stage, before the beginning of the XXI century, the creation of groups capable of maintaining a favorable operating regime within the zone bounded by the "first island chain" - the Ryukyu Islands and the Philippines, and in the Yellow, East China and South China Seas;
              at the second stage (until 2020) it is planned to strengthen the Navy so that they can carry out operational actions within the "second chain of islands" - Kuril Islands, about. Hokkaido, Nampo Islands, Mariana, Caroline and about. New Guinea, including the waters of the Japanese and Philippine seas, as well as the seas of the Indonesian archipelago;
              in the third stage (until 2050) It is planned to create a powerful fleet capable of solving tasks in any region of the oceans.

              https://flot.com/publications/books/shelf/reddragon/20/
            2. Bakht Offline
              Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 6 December 2019 00: 11
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              Perhaps I was mistaken with the number of aircraft carriers. According to Western data, the 7th aircraft carrier is currently laid down.

              https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/china-to-begin-construction-of-seventh-aircraft-carrier-new-details-emerge-on-fleet-expansion-plans

              Class 001 is the former Kuznetsov, Class 002 is a non-nuclear displacement of 85 thousand tons for operations in the near operational zone. Class 003 - these are giants like J. Ford - nuclear, with a displacement of 100 thousand tons.
          2. lev1759 Offline
            lev1759 (Eugene) 5 December 2019 23: 39
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            Poland wants to abandon Russian gas.

            Poland will not refuse Russian gas. They know how to count money. And all the talk on the topic of refusal, no more than to reduce the price of it.

            The power of Siberia is not critical for China at the moment. 5 billion cubic meters in 2020 and 10 billion in 2021 will not do the weather.

            Yes, they won’t do it yet ... But, as I have already said, the Chinese need to protect themselves from the sea blockade, and therefore the second line of the Power of Siberia and the Power of Siberia-2 will be built. And the Chinese strategically need this much more than us ...

            But it was critically important for Russia not to depend on Europe (diversification)

            I agree, we also need this, but the Chinese are no less.
            1. Bakht Offline
              Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 5 December 2019 23: 53
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              This is a loan from China.

              Gazprom was supposed to receive an advance payment for gas in the amount of $ 25 billion from CNPC, which was supposed to be used for the construction of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline. However, in the future Gazprom refused to prepay in order not to reduce the price of gasplanned for delivery by pipeline.

              https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Сила_Сибири
              -------------------
              And this is also an additional cost. About 1 trillion rubles

              https://www.gazprom.ru/projects/amur-gpp/
          3. lev1759 Offline
            lev1759 (Eugene) 5 December 2019 23: 56
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            China asked Gazprom to increase gas supplies from 4 billion to 5 billion in 2020. How to explain this, Krutikhin and the HSE adherents cannot explain.

            Yes, it’s just all explained ... The fact that in China there may be an oversupply of gas is only LNG. The price of Russian is lower ...
  7. Bakht Offline
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 December 2019 12: 58
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    First of all, the “Power of Siberia” cannot be regarded as an instrument of pressure on Europe and Ukraine, no matter how much one would like. The resource base for it is the fields of Eastern Siberia - Chayandinskoye and Kovykta. Opportunities to transfer gas from the European direction to the east in the event of a decrease in consumption, or even a complete rejection by the EU, currently Russia does not.

    Absolutely correct remark. And there is nothing critical about this. For the simple reason that they’re working on it.

    https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2016/09/02/gaz-dlya-evropy-v-aziyu-gazprom-planiruet-globalno-upravlyat-potokami-golubogo-topliva

    Necessarily will be the Power of Siberia - 2

    1. Ravshan Offline
      Ravshan (Jamsut) 4 December 2019 13: 21
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      Quote: Bakht
      Necessarily will be the Power of Siberia - 2

      Required.
      The pipelines will set up a lot. Squeezing Gazprom like a lemon, and then simply throwing it.
  8. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 4 December 2019 13: 15
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    Quote: Bakht
    Necessarily will be the Power of Siberia - 2

    No doubt.
  9. gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) 4 December 2019 14: 16
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    - Tales, tales .., tales ...
    - That’s personal I don’t understand ... -what is this ???
    - Self-deception ??? -That personally, I somehow somehow took all this if strangers .., at boring leisure ...- from nothing to do, they lazily talked about some kind of state .., to which they have nothing to do ... -But, when they themselves live in the same state and are just so ready to hand over their own state to their neighbor ... -Well ... that's already ...
    - Of course, this power of Siberia Siberia will never pay off ...
    - Of course, all other gas pipelines will never pay off ...
    - How much can you write about this already ... -Gas pipelines can only be built inside the state itself for your own needs ...
    - Gazprom itself ... is an organization that has become obsolete ...
    - He just declares himself bankrupt and begins to wind down all his activities ... -This is his legitimate ending ... -Even not want to continue further, already tired ...
    - As for China, everything here is just scary ...
    - Not a single law, not a single institution of interstate relations works in any Russia-China relationship: neither economic (both for the capitalist system and the socialist one); no scientific and technical partnership; nor in the format of a military joint defense alliance; not even any broad cooperation in the cultural sphere (everything is so different and absolutely unnecessary for development), etc.
    - China does not need a prosperous Russia, it just needs an economic appendage located nearby ... -and China is doing everything possible to keep Russia at that level always ... -And China will always crush all possible Russian competitors in its infancy ...
    - Otherwise, all the bloated Chinese prosperity will come to an end, a collapse will come ...
    - And not the USA is the main enemy for China; and Russia, in which an economic boom suddenly begins ... and prosperity ...
    - In China itself, there are about a billion inhabitants living in poverty (ready for anything) ... - all this poverty will run to prosperous Russia ahead of migrant workers from the former Russian (Soviet) republics;
    - Prosperous Russia will instantly bring down the entire Chinese economy ... - Russia today can produce all Chinese consumer goods and everything that China puts on the international market ... -But China does not allow this to be done ...- it bribes Russian governors ; local Russian law enforcement agencies, etc ...
    - By the presence of a giant army to the teeth literally next to Russia .., China creates a special effect and an impression of the ephemeral existence of Russia ...- "not today - tomorrow China will still capture the Far East and all of Russia" ... -As a result of which and many Russian moneybags (and even oligarchs ...- yes, yes, yes ...- and oligarchs too) are simply afraid to seriously invest in the Russian economy ... -Why invest a lot of money in Russia, if it is still captured by China ... -That ...- the only way ...

    - As for the "Power of Siberia" ...- it will be cyclical, to jerkily supply gas to China ...- as it is needed and during the next "Chinese price adjustment" - requirements for lowering the price of this gas ... -A so ...- it will constantly stand idle ... -Here and all the blown jobs for Russians ... -And a person cannot live in cycles ...- but where will he cut the cuts ...
    - And Zap. Europe and Turkey will be grateful to China for constantly knocking down the price of Russian gas (and no contract prices and oil prices will help here ... - they will always find a reason and a way ... to insist on their own) ...
    - Someone is happy with this state of things ...- I personally do not ...
    1. lev1759 Offline
      lev1759 (Eugene) 5 December 2019 21: 49
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      Read my post above and calm down ... Your Wishlist and fictionalism have nothing to do with reality ...
      1. lev1759 Offline
        lev1759 (Eugene) 5 December 2019 21: 55
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        And yet ... No matter what domestic reforms China implements, they will not affect the price of gas supplied. The price is specified in the contract ... And no matter how many gas suppliers to China, the only competitor is the Turkmen. Everything else is LNG ...
  10. Igor Pavlovich Offline
    Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 4 December 2019 15: 36
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    Uncle C and Big Duckling quarreled, and Vovochka turned out to be a whipping boy ...
  11. Bakht Offline
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 4 December 2019 18: 35
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    Questions to the universe.
    1. How much does the Power of Siberia gas pipeline cost?
    2. What is the cost of 1 km?
    3. What is the value of the contract for 30 years?
    4. What is the cost of comparable projects in the West?
    5. And for what period of time will it pay off?
    All this is calculated on a calculator and compared with the cost of Western projects in comparable conditions.

    PS Required postscript. Ravshans and Irina may not work. Their findings are ABSOLUTELY not interesting.
  12. 123 Online
    123 (123) 4 December 2019 23: 26
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    I read all the moans and lamentations here, then I read that Canadians write on this topic. In general, they worry that we’ve built everything in just 5 years, and they’re all scratching their turnips, they’re just going to build a gas pipeline of 670 km and an LNG terminal for 40 billion, and finally become a Chinese “raw materials appendage,” and while they are the raw materials appendage of the United States, gas is supplied only there. By the way, there are those who want to explain why the homeland of the shale revolution buys gas from us and in Canada, if they are about to fill the whole world with gas? recourse. In general, according to their calculations, our gas pipelines will provide approximately 10% of China’s needs, therefore they do not lose optimism, they hope to participate in that holiday of life too fellow . Later...... smile if they finish building ... repeat Again, according to their calculations, our profit from the sale of gas is 12 billion per year. I’m thinking, can they send our forever aching experts? sad I recommend reading it, it’s useful to compare, the comments are also worth a look.

    https://business.financialpost.com/commodities/while-canada-hesitates-russia-builds-3000-km-gas-pipeline-to-china-in-just-five-years#comments-area

    (just in case, I’ll leave the title of the article, anyway, the link here will be deleted, but the title is easy to find.

    While Canada hesitates, Russia builds 3,000 km gas pipeline to China in just five years
    1. Bakht Offline
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 5 December 2019 09: 12
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      Since no one found the calculators, then:

      The cost of the Power of Siberia is slightly more than 1 trillion rubles. That is, about 16 billion dollars. We have a little more than 5 million per km. In similar conditions, the cost of pipelines in Canada and Alaska is about $ 11 million per 1 km. The gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to China was built for $ 7 million per km (to be specified). A 30-year gas supply contract worth $ 400 billion. The cost of gas for Russia is $ 80, it is sold for 200. But there are a lot of nuances in the cost. According to specialists, the profitability of the Power of Siberia is 12%. For 8-10 years, it will fully pay off. But if the price of oil rises to $ 75, then it will pay off for 5 years.
      There are additional costs for creating infrastructure and building a plant. Another approximately 1 trillion rubles. There profitability is even higher.
      In addition, I can say that exactly the same moans were when they built the Nord Stream-1. The gas pipeline has already paid off. Where are those "experts"? Now the tears are pouring here.
      PS In addition: what is the profitability of roads, schools, hospitals, power lines? For the most part, negative. If the pipeline gives an impetus to the infrastructure of the Far East, then it has already paid off. But our Irins can only shed tears over the dominance of China in the Far East, but they do not want to equip the region. The logic is negative.
    2. Bakht Offline
      Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 5 December 2019 09: 12
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      Respect to you and plus.
  13. Don36 Offline
    Don36 (Don36) 5 December 2019 03: 06
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    Such decisions are long-term in nature and here 30 years is not a term.
  14. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 5 December 2019 07: 40
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    Quote: Ravshan
    Quote: gorenina91
    -My plus ...

    Thank you, madam.

    Plus was not for you, but for the article. laughing
    1. gorenina91 Offline
      gorenina91 (Irina) 5 December 2019 11: 46
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      My plus was for Ravshan (Jamshut) ...
    2. The comment was deleted.
  15. Nick Offline
    Nick (Nikolai) 5 December 2019 08: 00
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    I read the article and concluded that the author is not only not an economist, but not even an accountant.
    Discussing profitability without specific numbers is pointless. But I trust the economists of Gazprom.
    1. fevralsk.morev.75 (Sergey Morev) 6 December 2019 02: 08
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      Gazprom economists care about shareholder returns and premiums at the end of the year. For 20 years, the scheme "Profit in your pocket - losses are reimbursed from the pocket of the people." A vivid confirmation of this is Rusnano. From one cooperative guys.
  16. Warrior Offline
    Warrior 8 December 2019 17: 03
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    What is the loss of Russia?
    The fact that the Russian factories manufactured pipes and equipment for the Power of Siberia gas pipeline ....
    Or that Russian science, geologists and design institutes created such a large-scale and complex world project of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline ....
    Or that Russian scientists, specialists, engineers and workers received a salary for the construction of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline and will continue to receive a salary for its operation ...
    Or the fact that Russia will sell Russian gas at a cost of $ 7 per 1000 cubic meters to China for more than $ 200 per 1000 cubic meters, and in the future the Russian state budget will for a long time receive funds from this gas pipeline and the sale of Russian gas ...
    Either Russia and the Russians want China, the United States and Europe, which need energy, to ruin Russia or start a war with Russia to take over Russian energy and take it away for free, like in Syria and Libya ...
    Therefore, before speaking, you need to know the necessary information and think with your own head ..
    Putin is GOOD and does EVERYTHING right for the national interests of Russia and for the Russian people.
  17. Upmost Offline
    Upmost (Innocent) 24 December 2019 15: 23
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    Because some experts believe that the payback of the project will drag on, at best, until 2048

    Well, so cunning plans - they are such - multi-way, long-playing, it is unclear - who plays into the hands of ....
  18. Upmost Offline
    Upmost (Innocent) 24 December 2019 15: 26
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    Quote: Warrior
    What is the loss of Russia?

    The fact that China is developing COMPREHENSIVELY, and Russia is building everything "threads" and "branches".
    And it “pushes” a fossil resource in them. Those. engaged in work of low technological redistribution.