Why China will never replace Gazprom with Europe


Less than a month is left before the expiration of the transit agreement with Ukraine. Will a “New Year miracle” happen and the new contract will be signed on time, or will one of the parties block the valve from January 1?


Even if the course of events goes according to the worst-case scenario and the next “gas war” begins with the transit blocked, it will not be able to continue indefinitely and will end when one of the parties achieves a convincing victory, or a compromise is found.
Kiev needs Russian gas for its own needs, albeit under the guise of a “reverse” one, and transit payments to maintain a seriously dilapidated gas transportation system. The basic requirement of the new agreement is its long-term nature. On the side of Ukraine is Europe, which is interested in hanging the contents of Kiev in Moscow. Germany, the main partner for Nord Stream-2, directly insists on maintaining the Ukrainian direction.

Will Gazprom accept the conditions of the EU and Nezalezhnaya, or will it stop supplying gas, turn around in the heating season, trying by all means to shut off the gas needs of European customers so as not to fall for new multi-billion-dollar fines?

Let's be honest, where will he go from a submarine?

The European Union is the main trading partner of the Russian Federation. Through the efforts of our liberal “reformers,” over the past decades, the country has become addicted to the “pipe” to the detriment of everything else. The loss of the European gas market in this situation will mean economic catastrophe with inevitable negative political the consequences. When “the refrigerator defeats the TV”, there are many who want to ask the responsible for everything, and it will not lead to anything good.

Someone may object that we have made a “U-turn” and will now replace Europe with Asia. Here, on the eve of Putin launched the "Power of Siberia", through which the breadwinner gas will flow to China. Well her, this Europe.

Unfortunately, in reality, everything is somewhat more complicated. Against the backdrop of general enthusiasm, very skeptical assessments are made. The pipeline, which was extremely expensive in construction, managed to enrich its builders, it went up from 800 billion rubles to 1,1 trillion, but the country will have to wait a decent profit from its operation. Gazprom's top managers in the contract tied the price of gas to oil, based on its cost of $ 110 per barrel. However, today quotes are twisting at the level of $ 65, plus or minus.

So, Mikhail Krutikhin, partner of RusEnergy consulting company, having analyzed the project, came to the conclusion that the Power of Siberia will not pay off before 2048:

This is not a recoupable project. He has two goals. The first goal is, of course, to puff out our cheeks and say that we have opened another gas export route to Asia. The second goal is to give money to those who are building it, that is, to contractors.


However, Moscow is already thinking about the Power of Siberia-2. Meanwhile, “warm greetings” to Russian friends flew in from Beijing. Towards the start of the gas pipeline in China, a reform of gas pricing in the domestic market has begun. There will be a phased cancellation of gostarif and the transition to the "invisible hand of the market." According to the publication Financial, the reform will affect gas pipelines launched after 2014. This applies only to the "Power of Siberia."

Since, due to diversification of supplies, there is an excess of gas on the domestic market of China, the actions of the “Chinese friends” are directed specifically against the Russian project, making it even less profitable. And you say, "turn to the East" ...
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  1. Gadlei Offline Gadlei
    Gadlei 3 December 2019 14: 09
    -3
    What was known before the start of construction. The Chinese are cunning people. Gazprom just wanted to build a factory in Vladik LNG.
    But something went wrong .......
  2. gorenina91 Online gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 3 December 2019 14: 15
    -5
    Since, due to diversification of supplies, there is an excess of gas on the domestic market of China, the actions of the “Chinese friends” are directed specifically against the Russian project, making it even less profitable. And you say, "turn to the East" ...

    - No ... - Well ... everything is exactly so ... - about which I personally repeatedly wrote for so long ... wrote ... wrote ... etc ...
    - All the traps for Gazprom (Russia), which I personally wrote so much and hard about ... began to slam one after another ...
  3. Victor N Offline Victor N
    Victor N (Victor n) 3 December 2019 14: 24
    +1
    Gazprom expands supplies - this is the right job. Not going to give up any consumers. Without a feasibility study, no project is launched so that experts do not invent. It will pay off.
    In addition, Putin correctly said that the construction contributed to the development of social and transport infrastructure in remote regions. The deposits were discovered long ago; they would have remained untouched for a long time if not for this project.
    Any contractors work for profit, even in obscene ways. But ordinary builders are provided with work, get paid. So there is a lot of positive from the start of the gas pipeline. So do not scare Gazprom inexperienced readers.
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 3 December 2019 14: 31
      +1
      There are no inexperienced people. All people are adults, all without your comments correctly understand.
  4. yuriy55 Offline yuriy55
    yuriy55 (Yuri Vasilievich) 3 December 2019 14: 37
    +1
    Why China will never replace Gazprom with Europe

    Because there is no French, Italian, Spanish riviera and no moratorium on the death penalty ... crying
  5. The comment was deleted.
  6. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 3 December 2019 15: 09
    -1
    Let's be honest, where will he go from a submarine?
    To escape from a submarine, you need a desire, you need to "control this boat" or "scuba" in case of emergency. And when families and relatives "dug in" in this Europe, where will you run away, silly ones? So you have to, "clenching your teeth", endure everyone.

    Life is nothing without respect
    empty water on an empty stomach!
  7. Bakht Online Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 3 December 2019 15: 49
    +1
    The domestic gas market is the domestic market. The article clearly states that the export price of gas is tied to an oil basket. This is normal practice. At present, the price of gas for China in the Power of Siberia is approximately $ 230 per thousand cubic meters. This is slightly higher than in Europe.
    No one discloses the exact price, but they all agree on one thing. The price of gas is tied to the oil basket and exceeds the price for Europe by 20-30%.
    1. Igor Pavlovich Offline Igor Pavlovich
      Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 3 December 2019 16: 48
      -1
      ... At the moment, the price of gas for China in the Power of Siberia is approximately $ 230 per thousand cubic meters. This is slightly higher than in Europe.

      - It's too soft to say.
      About a month ago, the price of gas at European hubs did not exceed $ 120 for 1 thousand m³. For example, at the TTF hub, the price was within $ 113,47 per 1 m³, at the Gaspool hub up to $ 106,80 per 1 m³, and at the NCG hub up to $ 116,58 per 1 m³.
      Uncle X will never buy a product twice as expensive as it is on the market. Only very responsible officials who tirelessly care for the welfare of Russia can afford it ...
      1. Bakht Online Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 3 December 2019 17: 05
        +2
        The price on the hub is one thing. The contract price is different. At the moment, the price of gas for Germany is 167 dollars per thousand cubic meters. This is a minimum since 2005. So delivery to China is more profitable. And China is asking for increased supplies. There are other nuances there, but at present the Russian Federation is not interested in increasing supplies to China. So far, we agreed on 6 billion cubic meters until 2021. According to the plan, it seems 4 billion.
        1. Ravshan Offline Ravshan
          Ravshan (Jamsut) 3 December 2019 18: 36
          -5
          Quote: Bakht
          There are other nuances there, but at present the Russian Federation is not interested in increasing supplies to China.

          There are no nuances there.
          China does not need Russian gas.
          But Russia persuaded China to include Gazprom among the reserve suppliers (like, just in case). Therefore, there will never be a large supply of gas through the Power of Siberia. And it will NEVER pay off.
          And by 2025, China plans to become an EXPORTER of gas (and oil). What is now developing shale sands. The stocks of which are the largest in the world, just in China.
      2. gorenina91 Online gorenina91
        gorenina91 (Irina) 3 December 2019 17: 59
        -3
        - Yes exactly...
        - China has a rich practice in such matters ... -China sucked Turkmenistan and did not blink an eye ... - and continues to suck ... - and with the arrival of Russia, its "range" has also expanded ... - As for the price for gas .., then Russia will never establish a certain price with China ... China will also pay with its stale goods (which were not supplied by the United States), outdated machinery and equipment (as was the case with Belarus), etc. - For some reason, this aspect never appears ...
        - My plus to you ...
    2. Ravshan Offline Ravshan
      Ravshan (Jamsut) 3 December 2019 18: 32
      -4
      Quote: Bakht
      At present, the price of gas for China in the Power of Siberia is approximately $ 230 per thousand cubic meters. This is slightly higher than in Europe.

      To go nuts!
      The price of LNG in China is just over $ 100 per thousand cubic meters.
      In Europe, a little more, but not more than $ 150.
      Are you keeping all suckers here?
      1. Bakht Online Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 3 December 2019 18: 37
        +1
        Link to gas prices in China.
        1. Ravshan Offline Ravshan
          Ravshan (Jamsut) 3 December 2019 19: 01
          -5
          Quote: Bakht
          Link to gas prices in China

          What more do you want?
          1. Bakht Online Bakht
            Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 3 December 2019 19: 14
            +1
            Nothing. I already knew that you are a talker without a single real link. Chatting - not tossing bags.
            1. The comment was deleted.
              1. Bakht Online Bakht
                Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 3 December 2019 20: 26
                +4
                To shame a liar, make fun of a fool
                And argue with a woman ...
                All the same as drawing water with a sieve.
                Deliver us from these three, God!
    3. lev1759 Offline lev1759
      lev1759 (Eugene) 4 December 2019 21: 01
      -1
      At present, the price of gas for China in the Power of Siberia is approximately $ 230 per thousand cubic meters.

      In fact, the price of gas for China is much higher. In the region of 350-400 dollars per thousand cubic meters.
      1. Ravshan Offline Ravshan
        Ravshan (Jamsut) 4 December 2019 22: 29
        -5
        Quote: lev1759
        In fact, the price of gas for China is much higher. In the region of 350-400 dollars per thousand cubic meters.

        Why are you shy?
        Write already 3500-4000 dollars for 1 cube.
        So that gullible sov.grazhit stole in goiter.
  8. Pacifist Offline Pacifist
    Pacifist (Victor) 3 December 2019 17: 30
    +3
    Tired of this nonsense about who will replace whom. It was and is only about diversifying the supply chain. Having several key areas of supply, including small ones, it is easier to negotiate with consumers and less risk. That's all. The rest is idle delirium.
    1. Ravshan Offline Ravshan
      Ravshan (Jamsut) 3 December 2019 18: 38
      -6
      Quote: Pacifist
      It was and is only about diversifying the supply chain.

      Nothing like this. Diversification is only an excuse. Salvage is now being cut just on the laying of pipelines. Which for Gazprom will soon become a suitcase without a handle.
      There is simply nowhere to sell gas.
      The shale revolution, it was not just a collection of words.
      1. lev1759 Offline lev1759
        lev1759 (Eugene) 4 December 2019 21: 03
        +1
        The shale revolution has long been breathing in the wings ... At least occasionally read the press.
        1. Ravshan Offline Ravshan
          Ravshan (Jamsut) 4 December 2019 22: 28
          -6
          Quote: lev1759
          The shale revolution in AI has long been breathing in the wings ...

          Yeah. Only in fact it suddenly turns out that just Gazprom is breathing in the wings.
          And shale workers all over the world are taking on more and more new heights.

          Quote: lev1759
          Read the press at least occasionally.

          Yellow something? Yes, yellow must be read.
  9. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 3 December 2019 18: 06
    +1
    Germany, the main partner for Nord Stream-2, directly insists on maintaining the Ukrainian direction.

    But what about the proposal of the European Commission, voiced by Germany, saying that if it wants to maintain transit only to support Ukraine, let it send funds from its own budget?

    So, Mikhail Krutikhin, partner of RusEnergy consulting company, having analyzed the project, came to the conclusion that the Power of Siberia will not pay off before 2048

    Dear psychic "partner"? As far as I know, the cost of gas under the contract was not announced and is a commercial secret. How it is possible to calculate the payback period without knowing the gas price remains a mystery to me personally. And for you?
    This company is working in the field "in the field of attracting investments in the oil and gas industry" and carries it out "together with the world's leading consulting companies." For some reason, it seems to me that the humble consulting workers and their foreign partners did not have the opportunity to wet their sweaty palms in financial flows at this construction site, so they shit because of their capabilities.

    Meanwhile, “warm greetings” to Russian friends flew in from Beijing. Towards the start of the gas pipeline in China, a reform of gas pricing in the domestic market has begun. There will be a phased cancellation of gostarifs and the transition to the "invisible hand of the market." According to the publication Finanz, the reform will affect pipelines launched after 2014. This applies only to the "Power of Siberia."

    Can the dear author clarify the details of this reform or is it just a retelling of someone else's article? Reform of the domestic oil and gas market in China has been planned for several years.

    The Chinese authorities plan to allocate a part of oil pipelines, oil products pipelines and gas pipelines with a length of 112 thousand km belonging to state-owned energy companies, primarily CNPC, to the new company.

    planned for this

    to separate the pipeline assets of 3 companies and merge into China Pipelines Corp, taking as a basis the provisions of the 3rd EU energy package, which prohibit mining companies from owning and operating pipelines and distribution networks.

    What is this for?

    As an independent organization, the new pipeline company will be able to attract private investment and accelerate the construction of the pipeline network, while providing access to 3 parties to stimulate investment in exploration and production of oil and gas, and further unlock the resource potential of China.

    because,

    Despite the rapid growth in domestic gas demand, China still lacks adequate infrastructure in this sector.

    Thus, China is reforming the domestic market, because despite “they can build everything in a week, and we can’t do anything at all,” the structure of gas pipelines is not sufficiently developed, they stupidly do not have time to build it. These are not highly developed seaside provinces. This is where all the analogies with the 3rd energy package end. There is not a word about an attempt to extend these rules to gas pipelines in our territory.


    There is another, kind of problem, market price. Russian gas will not be preliminarily sent for processing, from the point of view of the gas processing industry, in fact, it is already waste suitable only for incineration. This scheme reduces the cost of gas. Who are we competing with? Domestic production (shale gas), LNG, supplies from Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Is anyone else worried about the competition? request
    So the appearance of the article on the day of the launch of Power of Siberia, in my opinion, is just an attempt to "spoil the holiday." All the same, people worked, built, and here again they make us bored.

    PS Dear Irina hi , I know what a balm for your pure soul is the melodic Chinese language, especially in the mesmerizing performance of Chairman Xi winked In general, I give you the opportunity to once again enjoy this wonderful performance smile

  10. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 3 December 2019 22: 55
    +4
    China will not replace the EU, but will complement ...
  11. Pishenkov Offline Pishenkov
    Pishenkov (Alexey) 6 December 2019 00: 22
    -1
    There will be a phased cancellation of gostarifs and the transition to the "invisible hand of the market."

    - there is no "invisible hand of the market" in the PRC. It is there clearly visible and controlled by the state, and no matter what they say there, they will not move away from it. They got up on it. And we poured on this. And to walk on a rake, and even strangers and so clearly visible, they certainly will not. Smart.
    So, gas price formation will remain state-owned, no matter how and under whatever sauce it is served. You just have to keep this in mind, and conduct appropriate political work with the Chinese, not market work. The levers are still there. Let's hope that the "above" also realize this ...