"Belarusian Federal District" is no longer possible, but a confederation is possible


On December 8, twenty years after the signing of the first treaty, the fate of the Union State of Russia and Belarus will be decided. To be or not to be, that is the main question. And what if under what conditions?


Belarusian Federal District?


Even 10-15 years ago, the likelihood of a united state was very different from zero. Belarus could join the federation as a single district together with Kaliningrad. It would be possible to satisfy Alexander Lukashenko’s personal ambitions by amending the Constitution of the Russian Federation, after which he could take the post of vice president. Why not?

Unfortunately, over the past two decades, Moscow has not been in a hurry to actually implement the agreements. We woke up in the Kremlin when it was almost too late. After the events of 2014, Russia became somewhat “toxic” due to Western sanctions, and the Belarusian elites and the nationalist-minded contingent were seriously afraid of the “Anschluss”.

As a result, Minsk began in every possible way to torpedo the takeover initiatives by the “big brother”. The previously agreed idea to deploy a Russian military base near Bobruisk was rejected. Relations aggravated after Moscow also decided to go on principle. Serious pressure began to be put on Belarus through the so-called “tax maneuver” in the oil industry, since it economy very dependent on Russian oil.

Now President Lukashenko is no longer looking for salvation in Russia. He is ready to replace loans from Moscow with Beijing. Russian oil defiantly began to gradually replace Kazakhstan oil. Alexander Grigoryevich often traveled to the West, where he is no longer called the "last dictator of Europe." The Belarusian president is ready to cooperate with Kiev on the creation of their own missiles. At the same time, Lukashenko is crying that his country is losing something all the time, and is demanding multi-billion dollar compensation from Russia, although the Kremlin, as you know, has no money.

The dynamics are bad. Let's face it, Alexander Grigorievich has already put an end to the question of the theoretical accession of Belarus to Russia as part of a single state:

The most important principle is sovereignty and independence.


In general, there will be no Belarusian Federal District in the foreseeable future, time has been wasted ineptly. Does this mean that the Union State has absolutely no future?

Confederation?


There is a form of government that is most able to satisfy the aspirations of Minsk. This is a confederation, or a union of sovereign states, united to solve some common problems. At the same time, all its participants retain their sovereignty, legislation and public administration system. Supranational bodies solve the most important issues - defense and external policy.

Strictly speaking, in today's situation it is an almost ideal form of unification of two fraternal states. Economic integration can take place within the framework of the EAEU, and within the confederation, Moscow and Minsk will be able to jointly protect their national interests. Moreover, the Belarusian public will have no reason to fear absorption and loss of sovereignty. However, the question arises of who will lead such a supranational entity?

There is a theory according to which the Union State is being created at an accelerated pace by the Kremlin so that President Putin can sit in the chair of its head in 2024. It seems to be logical, given how disparate the possibilities of both sides. But in Belarus this prospect does not cause delight. So, the local political scientist Alexander Dzermant sees the situation differently:

There is a question with the leadership. If a confederation, then the president is Lukashenko.


It must be assumed that such an idea will not please anyone already in Moscow. Let us ask ourselves, should the future of two countries and their fraternal peoples depend on the personal ambitions of two people?

Of course no. The problem could be solved more elegantly by dividing the power into three. For example, the “silovik” Vladimir Putin could concurrently lead the joint Armed Forces of the confederation, and the “business man” Alexander Lukashenko - the government, where his qualities would work in the interests of both peoples. The head of the united state could be a third person who will arrange both Minsk and Moscow.
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  1. plotnikov561956 Offline
    plotnikov561956 (Paul) 19 November 2019 14: 34
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    Belarus is not Crimea ... Kabaev will not break off ...
  2. 123 Online
    123 (123) 19 November 2019 16: 04
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    Belarus could join the federation as a single district together with Kaliningrad.

    True? Why not with Sakhalin? Even if it is hypothetically assumed that this is possible, why connect the Kaliningrad region? What, you can’t just do the Belarusian Federal District? But in general, who and when discussed this prospect? Or is it a creative imagination? "Kemsky volost there, Kemsky volost here." Are you disposing of the Russian zemlyats too freely? sad The consequences of such a restructuring of administrative borders can be studied in detail on the example of the Crimea. I doubt that such an idea could come to a less sensible person. There is a union state, respectively, the status of a union republic, why should Belarusians lower it?

    Unfortunately, over the past two decades, Moscow has not been in a hurry to actually implement the agreements.

    Quite right, it was necessary even then to stop playing with cheap oil, but Father was accustomed to freebies. yes

    It would be possible to satisfy Alexander Lukashenko’s personal ambitions by amending the Constitution of the Russian Federation, after which he could take the post of vice president. Why not?

    Because Lukashenko is a guy with ambitions, he does not need any “vice”. He agreed to the union, while Yeltsin was, against his father Butska was "the first guy in the village", and with the advent of Putin, this prospect became very vague.

    After the events of 2014, Russia became somewhat “toxic” due to Western sanctions, and the Belarusian elites and the nationalist-minded contingent were seriously afraid of the “Anschluss”

    Has it become too toxic for the sanctioned “last dictator of Europe”? belay But there is some truth here, the "elite and Natsik" felt a threat to themselves.

    He is ready to replace loans from Moscow with Beijing.

    Yes please. good

    Russian oil defiantly began to gradually replace Kazakhstan oil.

    Yes, a flag in hand and a fair wind. good By the way, what are the conditions and interest on loans from the Chinese? And the price of oil at the Kazakhs? It would be more profitable, he would have done it a long time ago. yes
    Is it serious about the confederation?

    Supranational bodies solve the most important issues - defense and foreign policy.

    departs to the administration of the union, and

    Economic integration can go within the framework of the EAEU.

    But father gives his "multi-vector" and does not receive cheap oil? Try to offer it to him. laughing

    There is a question with leadership

    Why bother with a garden? request Elections have been canceled? repeat
    1. A.Lex Offline
      A.Lex (Secret information) 20 November 2019 13: 41
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      There is an article on “VO” about the relationship between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. Here, too, there is something to read ... In one thing, I don’t agree with the author there - he too idealizes the "free self-regulating market hand" ...
      1. 123 Online
        123 (123) 20 November 2019 16: 42
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        ... there is an article on “VO” about the relationship between the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus.

        Don’t share the link? Or what is called? The author not only idealizes the market, he still cuts the land too freely and shares posts in power, as if on a collective farm — I’m the chairman, you are an agronomist, Vasya is the foreman, and the collective farmers are not interested in us. Set up a game of thrones here.
        1. A.Lex Offline
          A.Lex (Secret information) 26 November 2019 18: 23
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          Here - I found it! "The last parade in Brest" ... damn it, I searched and searched, until I thought of a look in the "magazine".
      2. The comment was deleted.
  3. SERGEY SERGEEVICS 19 November 2019 17: 00
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    Belarusian Federal District "is no longer possible

    Yes, from the very beginning he could not be a district, only on the basis of the republic (with his president, and not the mayor).

    It would be possible to satisfy Alexander Lukashenko’s personal ambitions by amending the Constitution of the Russian Federation, after which he could take the post of vice president. Why not?

    Why make changes when you can make a Republican entity, with its president, and not the mayor.

    Unfortunately, over the past two decades, Moscow has not been in a hurry to actually implement the agreements.

    Yes, and they, too, are in no hurry? Since Minsk began in every possible way to torpedo the takeover initiatives by “big brother”.

    The problem could be solved more elegantly by dividing the power into three.

    Here again, the division of power and the country begins, into some parts there, this also will not work. It is necessary that everything is in one hand, and not scattered in parts. Then, it may be easier to do according to the Crimean scenario.
    1. polev66 Offline
      polev66 (Alexander) 19 November 2019 18: 42
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      And it’s even easier to ask the people.
      1. SERGEY SERGEEVICS 20 November 2019 06: 44
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        Quote: polev66
        And it’s even easier to ask the people.

        We are talking about this, hold a referendum and draw conclusions on it.
    2. A.Lex Offline
      A.Lex (Secret information) 20 November 2019 13: 39
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      We have ONE President! And all the rest are chapters. You are not a little dope ...
  4. Victor N Offline
    Victor N (Victor n) 19 November 2019 18: 45
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    Now "common goals" are hard to imagine. And Lukashenko was so "revealed" that he MUST stay away from him. As far as possible!
  5. Sapsan136 Offline
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 19 November 2019 19: 26
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    With useless parasites like Lukashenko, nothing is possible except an embargo on ALL relations! They all want freebies from the Russian Federation, and in return they don’t want to give anything, or they are ready to give a penny, grabbing a thousand ...
    1. Hayer31 Offline
      Hayer31 (Kashchei) 19 November 2019 19: 54
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      Lukashenko is not to blame, neither Yeltsin nor Putin are ready to leave the post for a united Russia. For them, the chair is more expensive.
      1. Sapsan136 Offline
        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 19 November 2019 19: 58
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        And what is better for Lukashenko? The fact that he, like a parasite, lives at the expense of the Russian Federation and spoils her, calling the Russian Federation an occupier who imposed his wars on Belarus ?! Well, then close the border and let the Ukrainian Lukashenko fail to meet his Bandera people, with whom he already cooperates in the military sphere and obviously not for the benefit of the Russian Federation ... We didn’t have a brotherhood, then a good war is better than a lie and an antics of Russophobia patients .
        1. Hayer31 Offline
          Hayer31 (Kashchei) 20 November 2019 10: 44
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          Yes, close the borders with Belarus and leave the borders open with Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkey and then Afghanistan, and you will live beautifully.
          1. Sapsan136 Offline
            Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 20 November 2019 10: 55
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            Yes, we do not need you, with your consumer attitude to Russia and Russophobia ... Fuck off already ... Friends of you, as from the fact that the bullet is in the pot ...
          2. General Black Online
            General Black (Gennady) 20 November 2019 14: 39
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            You there from the cellar, of course, know better with whom to open the borders of Russia, and with whom not.
  6. xilia72 Offline
    xilia72 (xantos) 19 November 2019 19: 43
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    Belarus is part of the Russian Federation, President Lukashenko. And until 2014. Ukraine, Belarus are part of the Russian Federation. The new formation is called Russia without the word federation, you can empire. President of Belarus, the capital of Kiev. To unite the Russian people, one must sacrifice something.
  7. Eduard Aplombov Offline
    Eduard Aplombov (Eduard Aplombov) 19 November 2019 20: 45
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    Some kind of nonsense from the author, gathered up do not understand what.
  8. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 20 November 2019 07: 32
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    Quote: Eduard Aplombov
    Some kind of nonsense from the author, gathered up do not understand what.

    Your last name is perfect for you.
  9. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 20 November 2019 07: 44
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    Quote: Hayer31
    Lukashenko is not to blame, neither Yeltsin nor Putin are ready to leave the post for a united Russia. For them, the chair is more expensive.

    Damn, no one suggested Putin leave the post. See the definition of confederation.
    1. Boris Chernikov Offline
      Boris Chernikov (Boris Chern) 20 November 2019 17: 14
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      And recall, oh, "respected" author .. when and what did Lukashenko sacrifice as an ally for Russia?
  10. Valentine Offline
    Valentine (Valentin) 20 November 2019 07: 48
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    Guys, well, what a small-town prince would want someone else to be on top of him ... He perfectly attached his collective farm in .... to his Belarusian chair, and he will never yield to anyone, except to his little son Kolya, whom he, in an accelerated mode, is preparing to replace himself, and what it will be called there is the tenth thing, well, for example, “at the request of the working people of Belarus,” and Belarusians live well, but only at the expense of cheap energy supplies and their agricultural products in the Russian markets, and for this he saved all the collective farms and MTF, and only Russia buys heavy tractors and BELAZ trucks, and Russia supplies him with military equipment almost for free, so that they live like Christ’s bosom in Russia. And, the question is, why should he share or give his power to someone else, he was not too badly attached - he milks Russia as he wants - But father is cunning, not like Yanukovych. He was like a tramp from the gateway, so he stayed with him, that's why he asked .... Ukraine. So friendship is friendship, on paper, and for the rest we, Belarusians, do not meddle, and it will be so until the Minsk Maidan takes it somewhere near Rostov.
  11. Sergey Latyshev Offline
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 20 November 2019 13: 08
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    How much can you pour empty ...
    It is clear that there will be no nifiga.
    The oligarchs and the authorities of both countries will not sacrifice their own, which has been declared for a long time.
  12. Dima Dima_2 Offline
    Dima Dima_2 (Dima Dima) 20 November 2019 15: 28
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    There will be no confederation, everything will be, as before, preferential gas, oil of Belarus, and how to open a base in Belarus or recognize Crimea is impossible, and in the end it will all end with Belarus deciding to go to the West ...
  13. Boris Chernikov Offline
    Boris Chernikov (Boris Chern) 20 November 2019 17: 13
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    Lukashenko is a good business executive, a very ridiculous joke, especially in terms of letting Putin go for a walk there, but the Old Man will steer money ... And yes, Lukashenko was not going to enter anywhere and torpedoed all agreements long before 2014 .. money and power are needed, and not some kind of "union states" .. so the author is very small, but it is clear from other articles that the author hates Russia corny.
  14. marciz Offline
    marciz (Stas) 21 November 2019 00: 03
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    Belarus is already far from an alliance with Russia !!!
  15. Upmost Offline
    Upmost (Innocent) 21 November 2019 00: 33
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    Quote: Sapsan136
    With useless parasites like Lukashenko

    I would like to know how Lukashenko personally robbed you, for example.
    It's just that he always has such claims from the Russian Federation, although he is (as it were) the president of another country.
    And he has the right to pursue the policy that he considers correct.
    Like the president of the Russian Federation.
    And another thing - when debts are forgiven to Africa, and they help every Assad, there are zero cries.
    And when it comes from choking on Russian oil, Russian gas and Russian (sorry, American) dollar loans, Belarus, the same begins here mournfully mourning song about the brothers.
    I explain to those who don’t understand: there are two ways to support countries as “friends” —by political-economic blackmail (with the possibility of imposing sanctions, embargoes, and even coups), and by threatening military intervention.
    The United States uses these methods, and see how many “friends” they have around the world.
    Russia is trying to find “friends” on the basis of the long-past (post-Soviet) historical community.
    This method is very intangible, and the RF is not an example of development (political, economic, financial, etc.). And it is not visible that its leaders would like to change something in this direction.
    And such a method of "oil-gas-customs-duty" pedaling, which is used by Russia in relation to Belarus, has already shown its results with Ukraine.
    She, too, the Russian Federation tried to discredit, then blackmailing Yanukovych then raising the price per cubic meter of gas to almost 400 US dollars (in 2011 - against 250-350 for many European countries in the same period), "cheese and milk customs wars", etc.
    As a result, Ukraine was not afraid, and still does not ask for membership in the Russian Federation.
    We must somehow already learn to draw conclusions based on sober logic, and not ladies' whims and "offenders."
    It's a shame ....
    1. Victor N Offline
      Victor N (Victor n) 21 November 2019 18: 13
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      Recently, Putin noted that at a meeting with African leaders in Sochi, NOBODY ASKED ANYTHING.
  16. OXOTHuK Sakha Offline
    OXOTHuK Sakha (Blockchain Blockchainov) 21 November 2019 16: 04
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    It’s just Putin’s mistake ... After all, because of Putin’s mistake, Luka started sailing away.
  17. Upmost Offline
    Upmost (Innocent) 21 November 2019 18: 45
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    Quote: Victor N
    Just now Putin noted

    He generally notes and affirms a lot of things. In Syria, the terrorists defeated.
    In the Donbass did not abandon "their". Disposable household incomes are rising.

    The list can be constantly expanded.
    1. Victor N Offline
      Victor N (Victor n) 22 November 2019 11: 58
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      Putin is a worthy person and President! He does not tell lies. There may be inaccuracies, but name another politician who remembers so much digital information. It is very difficult to rule a country where many people neither respect themselves nor the state, and have no idea about many decency rules.