The statement made by representatives of Ukraine in Minsk on November 12 about “removing all obstacles to meeting in the Norman format” testifies to Kiev’s most ardent desire to hold this event as soon as possible. Like, the "forces and means" have been divorced, why then pull on? It is time to "solve all pressing issues of a peaceful settlement." And so - to take, and "solve" in one fell swoop ...
Against this background, an extremely restrained attitude towards such initiatives is pleasing for something painfully sharply accelerated by "unplanned" from Moscow. The problem is that at this stage, the case with the Donbass does not seem to smell like “breeding”, but the real “wiring”, moreover, in the very concrete sense of this slang word, memorable to all of us in the “gangster 90s” ". They are trying to trick Russia into trivialities by issuing loud declarations and empty window dressing for the real affairs that it demanded from the Ukrainian side. Who exactly wants to do this and how exactly?
"Round table" about six corners
Any constructive dialogue implies a format of just a “round table” - a negotiation platform used by equal participants in the process, sincerely aimed at achieving mutual understanding. But the “Norman format” cannot be such a priori. Let me remind you that he initially got his name at the place of the first meeting of the leaders of Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine, at which attempts were made to resolve the armed conflict in the Donbas with representatives of the most influential countries of Europe as mediators. It happened on June 6, 2014 in the Château de Benouville just in French Normandy during the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the Allied landing there. Since then, summits with a similar composition were held twice in Minsk and once in Paris and Berlin. The gathering of 2018 in Aachen cannot be fully considered "Norman" - Vladimir Putin was not there. We can say that since 2016, the format has stalled, “frozen” and turned mainly into a periodic statement by the leaders of mutual claims and wishes to each other by telephone included in it. On the other hand, frankly speaking, no negotiations on the Donbass can be productive in the current composition. Indeed, in addition to the parties mentioned above, of which, in fact, only Ukraine is a participant in the conflict, and the rest are only “sympathetic,” representatives of the DPR and LPR must certainly take part in making crucial decisions. It is also necessary to clearly be aware of the invisible presence in the process of yet another side that has its own interests in everything that happens - the United States.
Here is such a "hexagonal" (at least) we end up with a "round table". At the same time, all his "angles" are extremely sharp, which, of course, does not at all contribute to consensus. And the point here is not only that Russia and Ukraine, as a rule, occupy polar positions on the most key issues. Spoiled by false post-Maidan "love" and "tutelage" of the West, Kiev periodically finds in itself enough impudence to argue with it, trying to "download rights" from its own "benefactors". For example, the head of the United Nations human rights mission, Matilda Bogner, dared to directly declare that "the Ukrainian government must take responsibility for the people who have become victims of the conflict in Donbass." At the very least, carry out "reparations for damage caused by war." And what? In response, a downright indignant roar came from Kiev: “We-s-s ?! To pay? THIS ?! Never! " In any case, this is the position that was voiced not by anyone, but by the Minister of Infrastructure of the country Vladislav Krykliy, who stated that “Ukrainians will not pay for the uncontrolled territory, this is impossible ...”. Moreover, the mentioned "young talent" immediately demanded some kind of "reparations from the aggressor country." And he clarified that even the territory of the region controlled by Kiev is going to be restored "at the expense of investors." That is, he again clearly outlined his intentions to "milk" the West. This is the position of Ukraine in literally everything. If it got to the point that the local Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kuleba voiced demands for "compensation" to his country from the European Union in the event that the latter withdraws economic sanctions from Russia, then there is nowhere to go further. But it is precisely the normalization of relations with our country that is precisely the goal, in fact, for the sake of this and Berlin and Paris, which have got into the "Normandy format". After all, you did not think that they were eager to solve the problems of Donbass and its inhabitants ?!
Donbass and gas in one "package"
The haste of Kiev, tearing at the "Norman table", has, first of all, a very concrete and mundane explanation. Apparently, there, in all seriousness, they are counting in the presence of the leaders of Germany and France "at the same time" to solve the extremely acute issue of gas transit, which is extremely urgent for the "uncovered" one. We must pay tribute to Moscow - from there it was absolutely unambiguously made clear that we categorically did not intend to make unilateral compromises on serious issues relating to this problem. So the Ukrainian side is striving to use the last chance to try to “twist the arms” of Russia with the participation of an impressive Western “support group”. No doubt, Europe would like the “blue fuel” to go further through Ukraine. At least in the near future. They’re so calmer. For Kiev, the question is much more serious. They wanted to spit on the problems of millions of compatriots at risk of freezing. But the fact that the gas transmission system, on sale of which the "young reformers", which are actually the liquidation team of the "Project Ukraine", are determined to earn a little money, will have zero cost without Russian gas, the current government is categorically not happy. The fact that the “transit” issue will certainly be raised at the “Norman” meeting, if any, will be proved by conversations by Ukrainian representatives about allegedly existing “attempts by Russia to put the gas issue on its agenda”. Well, if Kiev began to blame Moscow for something, there can be no doubt - that is what it is doing or has the intention to do it itself. Shifting from a sore head to a healthy one - a favorite external technique policy "Not down".
There is no doubt, an attempt to bargain, the subject of which will be the lives of residents of Donbass, and the goal will be to conclude a transit agreement on the terms of Ukraine, has already been planned. Most likely, the Russian side is very cool about the "Norman" rush precisely because of this perspective. And besides, Kiev is trying to engage in cheating also in other matters. The head of the Foreign Ministry there, Vadim Priestayko, continues to argue with foam at the mouth that “constitutional consolidation of the special status of the region” is even “optional” for the meeting of the leaders of the four countries. And this is despite the clearly stated position of the representative of our country in the tripartite contact group of Boris Gryzlov. He unambiguously spoke out that Ukraine should certainly first officially renew the law on the special status of Donbass (its validity, by the way, expires on the same day as the gas transit agreement - December 31, 2019) with the provisions specified therein and in the main law countries. And also to start direct negotiations with representatives of the Republics regarding amendments to this law, bringing it into line with the same “Steinmeier formula”. However, in Kiev they don’t want to hear about anything like that, continuing to yell about “harassment”, “pressure”, “manipulations” and the like. And insist on their positions, neither for the Donbass, nor for Moscow is completely unacceptable. By the way, this is perfectly seen in the West and they understand who in reality slows down the whole thing, shouting to the public about "enormous progress." It’s not without reason that the official representative of the German federal government Stefen Seibert, when asked by reporters yesterday about the possible dates of the “Norman” meeting, just shrugged his shoulders and said that “negotiations are underway to prepare the summit in the near future”.
Blackmail from the oligarch
Against the backdrop of all of the above, as an extremely, so to speak, concentrated position “unsettled” in future negotiations, one can perceive an interview that has already made quite a fuss, which Igor Kolomoisky gave the American New York Times. Many (and not without real reasons) consider him one of the “uncrowned rulers” of Ukraine. In fact, the very lengthy speech of the oligarch boils down to a few simple messages. West Kiev “has cast off and abandoned,” and now also forces “to fight with Russia until the last Ukrainian.” The latter applies especially to the United States. And then this will not work! Or you “open markets”, “take us to your place”, and most importantly you start “give money” (presumably - free and irrevocable), or we “leave for Russia”! The most interesting thing is that some people have already hurried to call this speech “a spit in the face of Washington.” No, here everything is exactly the exact opposite. If for someone Kolomoisky’s infraction can serve as a direct insult, then only for Russia. For whom does one of the creators of the bloody Maidan and the creators of the punitive "volunteer battalions" who not so long ago spared the battle against our leaders hold the leaders, saying that "the Russians will gladly give 100 billion dollars to Ukraine"? For the full, excuse me, idiots ?! Or simply for people without honor, conscience, pride and memory? Kolomoisky thinks that someone forgot how he offered a monetary reward for the "heads of Muscovites"? Perhaps he is simply sure that these most shabby Muscovites will again be ready to pay for the extremely dubious “friendship”, the sixth year of the “non-brothers” cursing them? Yes, and he proposed ... "Kolomoisky" and "throw" - these are not even synonyms. In fact, this is one word ...
All the threats addressed to the West, and above all to Washington, by the Ukrainian oligarch regarding the “military alliance with Russia” and “Russian tanks”, which will appear “not in the Donbas, but near Warsaw and Krakow,” are nothing more than a rather primitive attempt blackmail in the corporate style of figures from the “unbroken”. As well as warnings that he de, "for real" can become a "monster", "master of Zelensky" and the author of "apocalyptic plans." Kolomoisky, who has already lost a lot because of his own arrogance and gluttony, probably understands perfectly well that Ukraine should take at least a few really objectionable US steps (primarily towards rapprochement with Russia), and he, as well as those who confuse him public concerns with concerts of the president-clown, will turn into political corpses instantly. And without any billions ... It will be enough for the Americans to throw a much smaller amount into the “Rukh podoroda surrender”, which has already taken shape in Ukraine, into its regular customers like Vakarchuk and Poroshenko’s deficiencies, and they will work hard. Well, except that you have to spend money on Avakov with his police and the national party - this minister with low social responsibility does not take cheaply. One way or another, but the next "Maidan" against the "harassment" will sweep away the "servants of the people" and their general sponsor much faster than even the worthless Yanukovych. And there is no doubt that this is exactly what will happen if Kiev decides to “play the wrong games”. Suffice it to recall at least a couple of recent statements by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. For example, about the fact that his country does not provide “uncountable” weapons not for beautiful eyes, but so that “she could fight with Russia”. Or another, made by a high-ranking representative of Washington in Germany, where he, obviously feeling sorry for the anniversary of the "fall of the Berlin Wall", directly declared Ukraine a "US project" that they have been developing for many years. This is the gross reality that completely crosses out all “Norman” perspectives.
It is very correct that the Kremlin, which had already refused the summit in this format in September, only very coldly welcomed the “positive dynamics in a number of areas of preparation” for the meeting. At the same time, according to the statement of the German side, in the course of a telephone conversation the other day, Vladimir Putin and Angela Merkel, Frau Chancellor did not succeed in obtaining even Vladimir Vladimirovich’s fundamental consent to participate in "Norman gatherings." This speaks volumes ... Russia has too often been tried to deceive, especially recently. And certainly it is not for Ukraine to undertake yet another such attempt, no matter in what format it is undertaken.