Why a nuclear war in the Baltic is real


According to the calculations of Chinese analysts, in the event of a war with NATO, Kaliningrad will be able to hold out no more than two days. However, the Russian Defense Ministry will not sit in the bushes and, instead of “cutting through the Suvalki corridor,” it will launch a retaliatory attack on the capitals of the next eight countries that are part of the North Atlantic Alliance. What is the likelihood of conflict escalating into nuclear?


All theoretical speculations about the war between Russia and NATO, as a rule, rest against the indisputable fact that our country is a nuclear power with the second largest arsenal. In the philistine view of any "sneeze" in our direction from the West, it can certainly end for him turning into radioactive ashes. But, strangely enough, the likelihood of the use of nuclear weapons by the West itself is gradually increasing, and there they are not so afraid of it.

During the Cold War, the Pentagon could only count on stopping Soviet military power with a nuclear strike. In their best years, the forces of the Warsaw Pact countries could reach the English Channel. Not experiencing much trepidation for the subsequent fate of the Old World, American strategists expected to stop the onslaught from the East with nuclear weapons and actively promoted their concept of deterrence by conducting appropriate exercises on our borders.

After the collapse of the USSR, the existential threat to the West disappeared, and with it most of the Soviet military and economic relics. The young Russian Federation began to integrate into the capitalist system, domestic elites were on the “same wavelength” with the West. Everything changed after the events of 2014. They are now making every possible way of “world threat” from our country, separately paying attention to the special situation of the Kaliningrad region, which is “stuck” between the countries that are members of NATO.

First, the alliance will have to crush the Russian exclave located in its rear. An attack on Kaliningrad will entail a counterattack of our troops. In the West, they believe that Russian tanks will be in Riga, Vilnius and Tallinn in 2-3 days, since the existing NATO contingent in the Baltic is not enough to withstand. The question is, what's next? Will Washington and Brussels agree with the Anschluss of the Baltic region by Russia or will they lead a long war for its liberation?

And this is a key question, since the objective reality is that the modern Russian economy will not extend a long war of attrition. Western analysts believe that Moscow is the first to use nuclear weapons. However, contrary to the narrow-minded notions, this will not be an attack on “decision centers”. This is the so-called concept of “escalation for de-escalation”. To this end, the Russian Strategic Missile Forces will deliver several “demonstration” nuclear strikes against certain limited targets in the Atlantic or on the Western Front. Their goal will be to frighten the enemy by the readiness to use the “nuclear baton" to end the conflict and sign peace under the Kremlin’s terms.

The problem is that NATO itself can use nuclear weapons against Russia to prevent progress in the Baltic states and Eastern Europe. However, the Pentagon will try to limit itself to the use of tactical nuclear weapons in order to deter Moscow from using ICBMs. According to the Nuclear Survey policy Pentagon from 2018, in the United States thought about some very thin line between the nuclear apocalypse and the usual war with tank wedges. Instead of the conventional Tsar Bomb, Americans are now interested in low-power nuclear weapons for real use against the enemy.

Low-power tactical nuclear weapons will become the “missing link” and will be the Kremlin’s new deterrent. According to the calculations of the RAND agency, delivering such attacks on the advancing Russian troops will stop Moscow, but will not lead to the start of a total nuclear war. As an alternative, Western analysts cite a serious buildup of conventional NATO forces in the Baltic states, which should ensure that the strategic region does not fall in a matter of days.
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  1. plabu Offline plabu
    plabu 11 November 2019 14: 46
    +3
    Only now the question arises - who and why did this "sprat cemetery" so badly needed to fight for it?
    And the answer already in that British film some time ago was -

    ... are you ready to die for Daugavpils ...?
    1. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 11 November 2019 17: 39
      +6
      The sprat cemetery was needed as a battlefield. From there, a rocket will suddenly fly out, which will accidentally turn out to be nuclear. For example, it will be released by an American-made aircraft against the will of the pilot (Spanish, French, Belgian - it doesn't matter). And she will fly to Russia. Recently, they regularly play the fool, now in Estonia, then in Japan. They will release the rocket and immediately call Putin: an accident, never mind, we'll figure it out. And ours, when attacked with nuclear weapons, will send an answer on the machine. And the United States hopes to play a fool, they say, the Baltic states alone (Poland, Japan) will cost. Although Putin warned that he would hit the decision-making centers (it is clear where). But "everyone, everyone, believes in the best" (C). The Americans will immediately declare the inadmissibility of a retaliatory strike against the United States, like, they have nothing to do with it.
      In any case, the Russian Federation will be declared the aggressor. Although, in fact, the world financiers and the United States do not mind. They will be promptly cleaned in New Zealand, L. America, Africa, where land has long been bought and everything that is needed is built and stored. The USA for them is a failed project. The state did not fulfill its purpose, did not impose its hegemony on the whole world (like Ukraine, did not provide a hot war with the Russian Federation). So, a couple of heads will fall (for edification) in the USA, so what?
      1. meandr51 Offline meandr51
        meandr51 (Andrei) 12 November 2019 17: 06
        +1
        So, when you hit our troops, you have to hit New Zealand. All the puppeteers will already be there.
        1. boriz Offline boriz
          boriz (boriz) 12 November 2019 18: 44
          0
          Including.
        2. Ehanatone Offline Ehanatone
          Ehanatone 14 November 2019 04: 18
          0
          So, when you hit our troops, you have to hit New Zealand. All the puppeteers will already be there.

          And they are setting up serial production of coffee houses, and it seems like all the places on them have long been bought up by a smaller gopot ..! ...
          And the base in Antarctica they suddenly got sickly sickly! ... - also a good place to sit out.
          1. meandr51 Offline meandr51
            meandr51 (Andrei) 2 December 2019 21: 11
            0
            Have a good time? When shelling an ICBM?
  2. Vladimir_ Voronov (Vladimir) 11 November 2019 14: 54
    +2
    You forget about gays, lesbians and migrants all the time. In the event of a military conflict, migrants will plunder, and most of the army will be thrown into the fight against them. And gays, lesbians, and well-fed, but cowardly townsfolk will start yelling about their unwillingness to die neither for the Balts, nor for the Ukrainians, even for their states. Add a parade of sovereignty and brexit here. Folk Wisdom:

    It was just on paper - yes, we got to ravines, and walk on them.
  3. Valentine Offline Valentine
    Valentine (Valentin) 11 November 2019 14: 59
    0
    Everything is correct, in order to test each other (enemy of the enemy) for lice, America, like us, simply needs, for edification, a small tactical nuclear war, be it in the Baltics, be it in Syria, or in Ukraine, so that once again, as and with Hiroshima and Nagasaki, to remind everyone what it is, and this will certainly be done, but on the part of Washington, and the reason may be any sneeze on the part of the countries unwanted by the United States. It will simply be a fixation and a statement that it could be much worse, but ... after the first use of TNW, the whole world will become silent and stalled for 15-20 years, they will count losses and lick their wounds, and this is only in the case that this conflict will not affect either the whole of Russia or the United States, and if, God forbid, it hooks one of us, there will be a nuclear apocalypse on Earth with a 100% probability. And even the most notorious McCains are very afraid of this, but a small atomic glove compartment in a single country is always welcome ... On the nose of the United States is a default, a drop in production, etc., resulting from a huge external debt, and their only salvation from the "Great Depression 2 "- war.
    1. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 11 November 2019 16: 30
      +1
      Baltic States - a fig place for a war (for us a fig). The Baltic Sea itself is already like a garbage can. Soon, packaging and chemical weapons will begin to be massively destroyed, and without nuclear weapons ass will come. Again, just geographically close, it will convey to us by the wind, if that. It’s good that Latvia closed the NPP, otherwise it’s a guard at all.
      1. Valentine Offline Valentine
        Valentine (Valentin) 11 November 2019 17: 48
        +1
        So the United States needs such backyards to start a small nuclear war there, and they will not ask anyone - they will not reach Washington from there, they will not reach it, and they will not reach it from Ukraine, and they do not care about Europe from the high bell tower ... .Von Japan oklemalas after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and now they will zaparganit something more voluminous - you understand, they have no other choice to rule the world in our time, and therefore somewhere will explode, and how .. All their "conscious" life mankind fought, first with stones and clubs, then swords, bows and arrows, then squeaks and cannons with cannonballs, then cannons with shells and rifles, and machine guns, now missiles and lasers - the next step is the use of nuclear weapons.
  4. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 11 November 2019 16: 44
    +3
    Everything changed after the events of 2014.

    Everything changed in 1999 with the start of the bombing of Serbia. Our "elite" clearly understood that they would not be accepted into any "golden million" and did not care at all. After that, Yeltsin was "tired", and Putin was instructed to stop the disintegration of the country and restore the army.
    And in the West they could not believe that such a restoration was possible. Even Putin’s speech in Munich in 2007 didn't get it. They began to understand something in the war 08.08.08. Then the screech began.
  5. Eduard Aplombov Offline Eduard Aplombov
    Eduard Aplombov (Eduard Aplombov) 11 November 2019 18: 07
    +2
    Recently, on Russian resources, it’s not right to push through from Chinese experts on weapons, on strategy of wars, on military equipment, do they themselves lack problems with the United States and neighbors?
    Climb like cockroaches in the kitchen in all the cracks, in Hong Kong they can’t put things in order, but they are clever about other people's topics, specialists in consumer goods.
  6. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 11 November 2019 22: 46
    +2
    Russia has a military doctrine according to which, in the event of an attack on the Russian Federation by two or more states, the Russian Federation uses nuclear weapons against them to protect its sovereignty ... This has been said a long time and openly, including for the United States and Japan ...
  7. Screw Offline Screw
    Screw (Gennady) 12 November 2019 06: 32
    0
    And the option of an event in Alaska is not being considered. And in which case, the entire demolition will go from West to East, from the Pacific to the Atlantic oceans - it will not reach us. You can also raise the sand from the deserts of the SGA by 10-15 km. Or maybe we’ll sit at the table and agree? There is nothing for America to do in Europe - from Lisbon to the Urals in a military sense. When did the SGA protect?
    1. Sake Offline Sake
      Sake (Sake) 15 November 2019 21: 24
      -2
      You are not at all in the subject, this forecast was given by the Chinese in the first part, and in the second there is the weaning of Siberia, Primorye, not to mention the islands and the peninsula. And you're talking about Alaska, forget that you can’t keep the above!
    2. Sake Offline Sake
      Sake (Sake) 21 November 2019 17: 27
      -1
      And what do you ride ahead of the horse, typically in Russian - to teach others with whom to be friends, with whom to do business. What do you care about the United States in Europe ?! You take care of your country, the Chinese are already mastering you, like the Indians in the USA, and you are still trying to set others brains, your swagger knows no brakes!
      1. plabu Offline plabu
        plabu 21 November 2019 18: 31
        0
        I ran here unclear who is not clear where, and then took to teach everyone?
        So, go to your home even to Kazakhstan, even to Ukraine and teach there - and Russia does NOT bother you sideways and, most importantly, you do NOT relate to it in any way - that’s why we’ll do without your teachings and discoveries, especially your knowledge is close to the minus mark, so what can you teach? NOTHING sensible and useful ...
        1. Sake Offline Sake
          Sake (Sake) 21 November 2019 21: 27
          -2
          You are wrong, however, we are worried about your swaggering arrogance of braggart - know-it-alls, you can do everything, everywhere and everyone teaches how to live "correctly", and whoever is against your grain becomes a fierce enemy! Remember, your stupid aggression, rudeness and theft will come out sideways for you, none of the peoples with whom you once "unobtrusively" were friends, fed up with your rudeness and will no longer stand in your stall!
          In relation to me, you spit nothing for nothing, I have achieved significant success in my life, I have two patents for inventions, there are three copyright certificates, I have designed and built two processing complexes, and I am working on a very large project.
          I remember and appreciate the writer V. Astafiev, who said that

          ... he who glorifies the past war brings the future war closer!

          You are on the right path to a future war, a zombie folk is already ripe for a big bloodletting, or rather, for the last bloodletting!
          1. plabu Offline plabu
            plabu 21 November 2019 22: 54
            0
            Your achievements are not interesting to me - what’s the point in them, if you haven’t said a single good word about the USSR or about Russia, this is firstly, and secondly, everything is known by comparison, I have at least NOT a shorter list will be - and there are patents, and copyright, and publications, and monographs, so you will not surprise me with your achievements.)
            And the rest of your opuses are not interesting to you, you are monotonous all the time about the same thing, and your opuses have little to do with reality, well, again, you have to write about the lack of your education - how can you come up with something new, write, and yours all the same repetitions - and why do we need someone in the stall? - the one who gets there, begins to demand that he be fed - stop eating for free, interrupt, not small already, earned - get it, not earned - go hungry ...
            And you did not try NOT to write on behalf of the public - us, we - but on your own, there’s nothing to try to portray mass)))
            PS And again, you have to repeat - study, you even write grammatical errors in your quote, shame. (
            1. Sake Offline Sake
              Sake (Sake) 22 November 2019 10: 49
              -1
              With regard to the USSR, I have no warm feelings for a country that could not and did not want anything but internal terror (up to 53 years old), provocations, wars large and small. False propaganda in everything made the people just as false and vile. Any deviation from the "unobtrusive" friendship was punishable by the invasion of troops, to return to the "democratic stall"!
              All this is projected at present, putting together alliances against someone, lying in everything, aggression and meanness towards neighboring countries.
              1. plabu Offline plabu
                plabu 22 November 2019 12: 19
                +1
                At least you jump up, but you still can't change it, and you could never, I wanted to "crush" - I have such "achievements" - it didn't work out, I ran into better achievements, so this is something else for you in general I didn’t write - academic titles, academic degrees, but why would you write about all this, you cannot write a quote from your favorite writer without mistakes, where do you still need to figure it out, so you will manage).
                And you didn’t write here recently -

                ... we are worried about your arrogant arrogance of bouncers - know-it-alls, you know how, everywhere and everyone you teach how to live "correctly", and whoever is against your grain becomes a fierce enemy! Remember, your stupid aggression, rudeness and theft will come out sideways for you.

                - well, about "us" and "we" you already had it, don't figs here you try to even portray the mass character))) and everything that is highlighted has the most direct relation to you - there is nothing to "teach" here, you do not live in Russia, but yours Kazakhstan or Ukraine have nothing to do with us, so there is no need for you to try to teach at least someone here.
  8. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 12 November 2019 07: 45
    +1
    Quote: Sapsan136
    Russia has a military doctrine according to which, in the event of an attack on the Russian Federation by two or more states, the Russian Federation uses nuclear weapons against them to protect its sovereignty ... This has been said a long time and openly, including for the United States and Japan ...

    As far as I understand the logic of Western analysts, they do not argue that nuclear weapons can be used. The only question is, for what purposes and in what volumes. They clearly realize that our "elites" will not erase the whole world into radioactive dust ... We are talking about TNW.
    1. Sake Offline Sake
      Sake (Sake) 22 November 2019 10: 59
      -2
      Let me ask myself a question, if the military doctrine of the Russian Federation clearly states that nuclear weapons can be used ... "in the event of an attack on the Russian Federation ...", but in fact everything happens just the opposite: the Russian Federation has become an aggressor in the last decade, this is the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation invaded Georgia, it was the RF Armed Forces that invaded Ukraine and unleashed a war, and the most vile thing is that the commander-in-chief at the time of the invasion of a foreign country gave the order to bring the RF Strategic Nuclear Forces on high alert! The question is - at whom did he want to throw YAZ and for what ?! For the fact that the Ukrainians began to resist?
      1. plabu Offline plabu
        plabu 22 November 2019 12: 36
        0
        Your school teachers now remember you with a "kind word" - how can you literally heap up so many mistakes in a few words - both grammatical and essentially ???
        "... at whom he wanted to throw YAZ ..." (c) - you are our thrower)))))), go teach materiel, how they call nuclear weapons correctly and what they do with it, again teach the correct name))) )
        and your opuses for the rest - there was no INVASION, teach materiel, there was no AGGRESSION - teach materiel, and read at least something about the "resistance" of Ukrainians BEFORE writing your comments, all this was limited to a broken door, which was returned the next day inserted)))), but I admit that they could have put a new door))), that's all, the resistance on this, in fact, ended ...
        Well, the fact that you DO NOT know what happened in Georgia is no longer surprising either. THERE WAS NOT ANY AGGRESSION - learn the materiel, there was nothing to fire at peacekeeping forces, and shoot it in an adult way, again learn the materiel) although you should be taught that you don’t learn - the result will be the same - you don’t know anything) ...
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      2. meandr51 Offline meandr51
        meandr51 (Andrei) 2 December 2019 21: 25
        +3
        The aggressor is the United States and NATO. They shared historical Russia and are constantly working in this direction. Russia does not try to dismember them, does not try to change their governments, influence their public opinion on the scale on which they operate. The restoration of the severed space is not aggression, but the restoration of justice. Our territory is our business. Themselves collapsed - we will assemble ourselves. But nuclear weapons are not intended for Ukraine and Georgia, but for NATO and the United States. To sit on the priest exactly while we restore order in our country. But it seems they understood little. Nothing base in Venezuela and Cuba to help them. Russia will again take second, and then first place in the world. Just responding to the permanent aggression of the West against the rest of the world.
  9. Ivanov IV Offline Ivanov IV
    Ivanov IV (Igor Vasilievich) 12 November 2019 16: 42
    +2
    I do not understand the logic of reasoning about Kaliningrad? This is the territory of Russia. An attack at any point on the territory of Russia means a declaration of war. The task of the deployed troops is to keep the bridgehead from the penetration of enemy troops. At the same time, immediately after the attack, a retaliatory strike should follow, not only against the attacking troops, but also against the basing and decision-making centers. Until the strategic forces attacked the administrative centers and infrastructure of the aggressor. And, presumably, Kaliningrad will not play any role here.
    And why then all these plans and talk about the possibility of protecting Kaliningrad ????
    1. meandr51 Offline meandr51
      meandr51 (Andrei) 12 November 2019 17: 10
      0
      Probing the reaction. They promise to erase the Pentagon or not. I think you need to remove a couple of cartoons, but fun ...
    2. meandr51 Offline meandr51
      meandr51 (Andrei) 2 December 2019 21: 28
      +1
      We need to remove a couple of blockbusters to free the American continent from the dominance of ...
  10. Vkd dvk Offline Vkd dvk
    Vkd dvk (Victor) 13 November 2019 11: 31
    +1
    100% chance that we will answer in full. As in the song, "We will not stand for the price ....!"
    Of course, we ourselves will not be the first to get into a fight ourselves. For there is nothing and no one. We need them on ..... feed again?

    1. commbatant Offline commbatant
      commbatant (Sergei) 15 November 2019 22: 28
      +1
      Quote: Vkd dvk
      We need them on ..... feed again?

      Definitely. The former Georgian SSR responded with "gratitude" for its 33,3% of the balance at the "Soviet Occupation" museum in Tbilisi .... ungrateful dogs ... the Turks will have them again ...
    2. Sake Offline Sake
      Sake (Sake) 18 November 2019 14: 26
      -2
      But what about the loss of the islands in favor of China, and what about the lands in Siberia, which in fact are already Chinese, but what about the 6-7 million Chinese who are already in Siberia? And here you are driving over the ears "for the price, they say, we will not stand" ... such swaggering thousands are taken prisoner!
      1. plabu Offline plabu
        plabu 21 November 2019 14: 02
        0
        Yours "in fact", take it for yourself, you are a tireless analyst) And what about captivity, did you write from your own experience, or is it such a family name? (
        1. Sake Offline Sake
          Sake (Sake) 21 November 2019 17: 18
          0
          If there is nothing to cover, it is better to shut up.
          1. plabu Offline plabu
            plabu 21 November 2019 18: 19
            0
            wink I already wrote to you here - the shortcomings of your education are already evident - except for the word "debility" and derivatives from it, you do not know anything else. Learn)))
  11. Ehanatone Offline Ehanatone
    Ehanatone 14 November 2019 04: 09
    0
    Typical liberal nonsense, it doesn’t matter which side this liberal dwells on (and, most likely, both at once, well, like our agarks, who think that they are also tseeuropeytsy), especially in terms of strongly targeted attacks.! ...
    Maybe, from the US side, they are also point-like, due to the deficit of fissile materials, then they cannot be particularly point-like in our country, due to the lack of precision !!! ...
  12. Sake Offline Sake
    Sake (Sake) 15 November 2019 21: 16
    -6
    That is why they say that present-day Moscow rushes about like a mad monkey with a grenade in a warehouse with YAZ! And this is true! If in your sore consciousness there is a place for such nonsense as the use of nuclear weapons immediately before the threshold of your home and against a country that does not want anything from you, who have the only desire that you do not meddle in other people's affairs and in foreign countries, this suggests that schizophrenic senility in the Russian Federation has reached a boiling point!
    1. meandr51 Offline meandr51
      meandr51 (Andrei) 2 December 2019 21: 44
      +3
      If it were the way you, pentabot, say, then you would not be there. You would be a small pile of radioactive ashes. We have been suffering your arrogance and constant threats against us for too long. Russia is a great country. It pulsates in history under the influence of an aggressive and sadistic West, shrinking and recovering. Now the recovery process has begun. To all mongrels: to lie and be afraid! And be calm - in the event of an attack on the Russian Federation no one will be forgotten and nothing will be forgotten ...
  13. commbatant Offline commbatant
    commbatant (Sergei) 15 November 2019 22: 23
    0
    Another nonsense of another "analyst" ...
    Let us turn to the words of GDP:

    ... we will go to Paradise, and they will simply die ...

    ... if in this world there is no place for Russia, then why do we need such a world?
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  14. Vkd dvk Offline Vkd dvk
    Vkd dvk (Victor) 15 November 2019 23: 18
    +3
    Quote: commbatant
    Quote: Vkd dvk
    We need them on ..... feed again?

    Definitely. The former Georgian SSR responded with "gratitude" for its 33,3% of the balance at the "Soviet Occupation" museum in Tbilisi .... ungrateful dogs ... the Turks will have them again ...

    We will remember this. The earth is round. And striped like a watermelon. There will come times when they will need to hide from ..... under the wing of Russia.
    The Turks, there, have already cleaned Adjara. Observe ......
  15. Vkd dvk Offline Vkd dvk
    Vkd dvk (Victor) 15 November 2019 23: 24
    +2
    Quote: Sake
    That is why they say that present-day Moscow rushes about like a mad monkey with a grenade in a warehouse with YAZ! And this is true! If in your sore consciousness there is a place for such nonsense as the use of nuclear weapons immediately before the threshold of your home and against a country that does not want anything from you, who have the only desire that you do not meddle in other people's affairs and in foreign countries, this suggests that schizophrenic senility in the Russian Federation has reached a boiling point!

    Schizophrenic insanity has long been seething in the brains of "Western democrats". And idiots like you. We are warning. But we do not need their "values".

    This IM needs to stand like this and wait for handouts:



    These are THEIR values:



    This is THEIR leaders:



    This is their independence kneeling:

    1. Sake Offline Sake
      Sake (Sake) 18 November 2019 14: 30
      -1
      What a long way to throw stones in the State Duma, half of drug addicts and half of blue, in combination with the fact that they are thieves!
  16. Don36 Offline Don36
    Don36 (Don36) 17 November 2019 00: 31
    +2
    And why should the Russian Federation use nuclear weapons in the Baltic states? In case of emergency Russia can and should use warheads and air bombs of a three-dimensional explosion, including high power ... Efficiency will be no worse, and no contamination of the area!