Ukrainian Sahara is not far off: “Independent” is waiting for cold and hunger


Against the background of very real fears that despite Kiev’s bravura statements about “complete readiness” for stopping gas transit from Russia to Europe, this moment will lead to extremely unpleasant consequences for the majority of Ukraine’s population, who will have the next winter (as well as subsequent ones) meet with cold batteries, "behind the scenes" remain some of her other problems. So far they remain ...


Тем не менее, по оценкам большинства серьезных economic экспертов, вслед за жесточайшим энергетическим кризисом, «нэзалэжную» ожидает и кризис продовольственный. Насколько велика вероятность того, что страна, претендовавшая на статус «аграрной сверхдержавы», в достаточно близком будущем может столкнуться с самым настоящим голодом?

Eat sold!


Казалось бы, написанное выше прямо противоречит официальной статистике, с большой гордостью озвучиваемой Киевом. Так, тамошний «Институт аграрной экономики» отрапортовал: за 9 месяцев нынешнего года экспорт зерновых культур из «нэзалэжной» вырос в сравнении с годом предыдущим на 44% и достиг рекордных 40 миллионов тонн без малого. Повод для радости? Ну, кому как... Только за последние два года хлеб на Украине вздорожал почти на четверть. За времена, прошедшие с последнего «майдана» – в разы. Аналитики рынка прогнозируют дальнейшее возрастание его цены, а также – абсолютного большинства продуктов питания. И причина тут проста – все, что выращивается в стране, производители правдами и неправдами пытаются продать за кордон. В итоге получается парадокс – вывозя зерно, подсолнечник, кукурузу, недоделанная «сверхдержава» вынуждена, в свою очередь, импортировать самое необходимое. Да хотя бы ту же картошку! Согласно таможенным данным, только из сопредельной Белоруссии этого овоща на украинскую территорию с начала года было ввезено на сумму в 24 с лишним миллиона долларов. А ведь есть еще картофельный экспорт из Молдавии, Турции, других стран. Цена на этот корнеплод, составляющий основу питания большинства стремительно беднеющих украинцев, в сравнении с прошлым годом взлетела, как минимум, в десять раз! Что уж говорить о прочих продуктах питания...

Ukrainian agrarians, having completely reoriented themselves towards crops that can be taken out of the country, ignore the needs of the domestic market, leaving it to the mercenary speculators who “wind up” on food purchases simply prohibitive margins. It should be borne in mind that the state regulation of prices for products (even for bread) in the country is abolished as a “heinous Soviet relic”. So the price of potatoes reached a dollar per kilogram ... Moreover, food more than of dubious quality is increasingly getting into the country. For example, not so long ago in Odessa it was possible to "catch" almost 25 tons of tomatoes from Turkey infected with some exotic rubbish. But how many of these “goodies” quite successfully crossed the “leaky” border and reached retail chains and consumer tables? Be that as it may, even the increased export of food necessary in the country does not save Ukraine from the status of an importing state. Last year, a negative indicator of its trade balance was $ 9 billion. In the current year alone, this figure has increased by almost a billion more. It is not surprising - if you already have to import not only traditional energy carriers for the country and the same engineering products, but also food ... However, the export excitement of agricultural producers from the "non-fallow" will most likely not last long. There are several reasons for this.

On the one hand, according to the recognition of the deputy prime minister for European integration Dmitry Kuleba, Ukrainian exports to the countries of the European Union "have already reached their ceiling." Of course, no one is going to open the doors wider for Kiev in the West. All the talk there about allegedly planned "economic visa-free travel" is nothing more than a bluff designed for a "patriotic public." The same grain today has to be exported to China, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Tunisia. However, about the "export" is just a big question. A stable supply requires, first of all, well-functioning and reliable supply chains. After all, grain still needs to be somehow delivered to seaports, from which the lion's share of Ukrainian exports is carried out. But with this just a huge problem is brewing. Depreciation of rolling stock on the non-fallow railways came close to 100%. With freight cars suitable for transporting agricultural products, things are going very badly. Last year alone, their number decreased by almost half. And with locomotives, without which any train turns into a pile of scrap metal, it’s a complete disaster. Of the more than 1991 “draft horses” available in Ukraine in 6, 3 and a half thousand were able to somehow move last year. Freight - less than 2 thousand. Kiev’s plans to purchase locomotives in the USA (from General Electric), as well as attempts to establish its own production, so far do not give the slightest reason for optimism. Obviously, in a few years, the “agricultural superpower” will have to return to the transportation of grain on carts driven by oxen ...

Is Ukrainian Sahara just around the corner?


On the other hand, the big question is: will it be exported? While Ukraine “de-communized” and waged a desperate struggle with the “damned Soviet past”, a disaster crept up to it, just directly related to the legacy of the USSR. Rather, with its thoughtless and mediocre destruction. The problem is that all the talk about the exceptional fertility of the Ukrainian lands, all the claims of the "unbroken" almost to the role of the "granary and nurse" of the Soviet Union, are largely pretty far-fetched. The main territory that makes up present-day Ukraine, two centuries ago, was subject to natural disasters such as droughts, dry winds, dust storms, literally blowing tons of black soil from the fields. Moreover, this was characteristic not only for the southern and eastern regions, but also for the central and even northern ones, including the current Kiev and Poltava regions. Time after time - in 1921, 1931, 1946, these lands were struck by the most severe crop failures caused by the climatic vagaries of nature. Tales of the planned "famine" and similar things originated and took root in the minds of the "Ukrainian patriots" much later, and in those days the true causes of disasters were well known, and ways to deal with them were developed and implemented. In 1948, the so-called "Stalinist plan for the transformation of nature" came into force, realizing which, the territory of present-day Ukraine, indeed, has been turned into a fertile region.

In accordance with a special resolution adopted by the Council of Ministers of the USSR and the Central Committee of the CPSU (b), millions of hectares of forest were planted, and huge cascades of irrigation were created. Water cascades and man-made forests were created, the purpose of which was climate change in an area of ​​more than 100 million hectares, not only in Ukraine, of course. And the goal was achieved, despite the fact that after the death of Stalin in the 50-60s, colossal work was largely curtailed. For decades, Ukraine has lived without natural disasters, harvesting record crops, not knowing hunger and delighting its inhabitants with food abundance. The last year without droughts was 1998 ... Some seven years after the collapse of the USSR and "gaining independence" were enough to negate the titanic works of grandfathers and great-grandfathers. Barbaric deforestation, complete neglect of rivers and other bodies of water, destruction of irrigation systems, predatory exploitation of fields - all this could not but affect the country's agriculture in the most detrimental way. It affected. Arid summer without raindrops, abnormal temperatures and precipitation - all this again became the norm for Ukraine. The process accelerated especially clearly after 2014, when, due to a sharp rise in the price of energy resources, deforestation of green spaces in the country took on not just massive, but total character. According to many scientists, moving in this direction and at such a pace, Ukraine has every chance to get its own deserts during the life of the next generations. In any case, 2018 was a record hot there over the past 140 years. A little more - and "non-fallow" will definitely acquire its own Sugar. What kind of “agricultural superpower” is there ?!

Rather, the prospects for this country lie in a completely different plane. According to the analysis carried out by specialized specialists, 90% of the agricultural equipment in the "non-down" imported production. Consequently, the renewal of its fleet, repairs and normal maintenance are possible only if export is continued. It will not be - plow will have plowing on nags. There is one more point - the general sale of Ukrainian lands, which is being prepared now with the filing of the current government, will inevitably lead to the fact that their lion's share will either be in the hands of foreigners, or will be bought up by agricultural holdings, again working mainly for export. Will both those and others be at least somewhat concerned about the food of the Ukrainians? The question, of course, is rhetorical ... It is not for nothing that fears about this are expressed even in such a far from humanistic organization as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Most likely, in the not too distant future, the residents of the “unplanned” area will be switched exclusively to imported products. Those, of course, who have enough money to buy them. Let me remind you, according to a study conducted this year by GfK (Growth from Knowledge), Ukraine is recognized as the country with the poorest population in Europe. The average purchasing power of local residents is estimated at 1.8 thousand euros per year, while the average European figure exceeds 14 thousand euros. With such money, as you know, you don’t really get around. Again, the energy collapse expected in the coming year will inevitably lead to a new blow to the country's barely warming industry, rising unemployment, another round of inflation and rising prices, especially for food. With this situation, it’s not far from real, not fictitious politicians hunger. However, it is precisely this prospect that excites them the least ...
Photos used: https://milled.com/
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23 comments
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  1. Arkharov Offline
    Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 11 November 2019 09: 22
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    The author no longer knows how to make a head out:

    Arid summer without raindrops, abnormal temperatures and precipitation - all this again became the norm for Ukraine.

    - Is Maidan to blame here too?

    Again, the energy collapse expected in the coming year ..

    - And you didn’t wait for him for at least one year, but something doesn’t come in any way? Then next fall, will you tighten this bagpipe again?
    1. Victor N Offline
      Victor N (Victor n) 11 November 2019 18: 24
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      But the climate is changing realistically and noticeably - any summer resident will say.
      1. Arkharov Offline
        Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 11 November 2019 18: 47
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        But strangely enough, not only in Ukraine.
    2. Screw Offline
      Screw (Gennady) 13 November 2019 06: 55
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      It does not require kovtuny with vakarovy.
      1. Arkharov Offline
        Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 13 November 2019 17: 05
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        They are probably required on your favorite television litter?
  2. savage1976 Offline
    savage1976 11 November 2019 09: 39
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    Yes, and here it is not very much better with the price of potato. 90 rubles ($ 1,5) is already quite a normal price per kilogram of this vegetable from China, and Krasnodar, and Belgorod - and 200 each.
    1. Conn Offline
      Conn (Conn) 11 November 2019 12: 33
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      And the purchasing power of most Russian citizens does not even reach 1,8 thousand euros!
      1. savage1976 Offline
        savage1976 11 November 2019 14: 36
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        Well, there a year is meant 1.8 thousand euros. With a course of 70 p. for the euro, this is 126000 rubles a year, even with 10 rubles of income, this amount is practically gaining.
    2. Victor N Offline
      Victor N (Victor n) 11 November 2019 18: 25
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      Who are you trying to mislead and scare? Ugly!
    3. boriz Online
      boriz (boriz) 11 November 2019 23: 39
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      Do you live in Chukotka? In Kaluga, 20 - 25. In September, he took three bags for the winter - 15 r / kg each.
      1. savage1976 Offline
        savage1976 13 November 2019 00: 41
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        You guessed right.
    4. sgrabik Offline
      sgrabik (Sergei) 12 November 2019 22: 59
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      This is bullshit, even in Tyumen a full bucket of potatoes with a slide is cheaper, 150 - 200 rubles, and this is not Chinese, but fresh, from the nearest villages and farms, and you probably buy gold-plated potatoes at 200 rubles for 1 kg ???
  3. Glenni Offline
    Glenni (Andrei) 11 November 2019 10: 03
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    I didn’t know that everything is so bad!
  4. bubasa Offline
    bubasa (Konstantin) 11 November 2019 14: 32
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    What year do you print the same thing, hunger awaits, cold, desert ... US, we are tired of storming.
  5. Carrier Offline
    Carrier (Tatyana Carrier) 11 November 2019 17: 09
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    Exactly the realities of today's Russia !!! That's exactly how we live! And they, I think, will live!
    1. Victor N Offline
      Victor N (Victor n) 11 November 2019 18: 28
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      And you are sorry, live like everyone else in Russia.
  6. boriz Online
    boriz (boriz) 11 November 2019 23: 48
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    The fact is that they have long been quietly cutting down Stalin's forest belts for firewood, and planting along roads.
    1. beeper Offline
      beeper 12 November 2019 02: 51
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      Unfortunately, this is so - in our steppe region, in the Ukrainian Southeast, now there is complete mismanagement and “chaos” with chaotic deforestation, unpunished for those who have a “roof” in law enforcement and government offices!
      But in the "Brezhnev era", many such snow-covered forest plantations along the roads (and between fields) were planted almost entirely from apricots, cherries and walnuts!
      Which of the Russians drove their car in the direction of the Crimea, they will not let lie!
  7. beeper Offline
    beeper 12 November 2019 00: 35
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    Frankly speaking, in the hungry and moneyless 90s of the post-Soviet "gangster-nezalezhnitsky Deriban-wake-up" our potatoes really helped out from our large rural garden - in fact, was the main daily product of survival.

    The sister now regrets recalls how she complained to our mother every day that “only potatoes and potatoes” (and ersatz-substitute for potatoes, we then had Jerusalem artichoke from a suburban area, cooked in all kinds - when I remember the mocking Naino-Yeltsin wild word “saints” 90 ", for some reason, to everything else, I immediately recall this disgusting sweetish taste of Jerusalem artichoke from the 90s what )!
    But then our rural grandfather and grandmother were still alive and the Ukrainian village was still alive - until ku (prezik) -yushchenkovsky (his "my best" prime minister, and Yushch then obsequiously called his benefactor - "Kuchma-miy dad (my father!)! "- this was later with the" non-merciful "ex-" best banker of the planet Earth (the boastful "auto-characterization", as well as the pompous - "chi hands themselves do not paint!" winked ) "happened to change shoes on a jump" - "Kuchmu-get (out!)!) forcible destruction - the dispersal of effectively operating collective farms (based on former collective farms and state farms) and the partition-" sharing "of the land!

    NOW, in the post-Maidan UKRAINE, everything is much worse than the first post-Soviet decade and for the majority of the rapidly impoverished "peersichny" (ordinary) Ukrainian residents POTATOES - NOT A MAJOR PRODUCT, AND BECAME A DELICACY - a tidbit not every day! Now we spend it mainly in soups and borsch, and on a side dish - usually cereals from the cheapest cereals! Buckwheat and rice are also "delicacies" and stand like potatoes.
    1. Screw Offline
      Screw (Gennady) 13 November 2019 05: 53
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      Rye, oats, wheat, barley? And fry on oil? You can still live. As an option from 1942: survivors say potato peelings on a solid;
      1. Arkharov Offline
        Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 13 November 2019 17: 07
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        About the 42nd is not funny.
      2. beeper Offline
        beeper 16 November 2019 04: 20
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        Dear Vintik, minus was not mine - Plus from me! For besieged sweets - what does the bandervah not joke about, maybe they will come in handy for me too ?! winked
        My family and friends are also among those survivors, although not all my relatives survived!
  8. Artie Offline
    Artie (Artyom Korolev) 14 November 2019 19: 10
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    Ukrainians must suffer.