Why is the ruble growing despite 5 years of sanctions?

Despite five years of Western sanctions and the threat of "tearing to shreds" our the economy, we still hold on, and the Russian ruble even shows some growth against the dollar, which was noted even in distant Germany. What explains such an unexpected behavior of our national currency?




German journalist Gerhard Scharinger in an article for Focus writes the following:

The ruble was able to even appreciably strengthen against the euro and the dollar during the year and remains one of the strongest currencies among developing countries in 2019.


The author, as the reasons for such a rejoicing phenomenon for Russia, points to an unusual budget surplus for most Western countries and a noticeable decrease in the pressure of the foreign policy component on the ruble exchange rate. As the third reason for the growth of our national currency against the American and European, Gerhard Scharinger sees the decrease in interest rates in the United States and the European Union, which makes Russian government bonds extremely attractive in the eyes of international investors. Investments by non-residents in federal loan bonds naturally strengthen the ruble.

In general, Russian financial experts agree with the German journalist. For example, Vladimir Rozhankovsky confirms that the ruble grew by 5% against the dollar, while other currencies grew by only 2,5%. But as the most important reason for reducing pressure on the ruble, he sees a change political agendas within the US. Due to the beginning of the presidential campaign and the threat of impeachment to Donald Trump, the US senators and congressmen are now less concerned with Russia.

Financial expert Anton Bykov believes that the ruble is no longer "staggering" during storms in the oil market due to the so-called "budget rule". All revenues in excess of the price of a barrel of oil of $ 40 go to the NWF “bottle”, making the budget surplus and the economy more stable. Financier Vitaly Manzhos notes the fact that significant negative foreign policy news currently come less often.

The representative of the banking sector, Elena Chizhevskaya, points to the positive effects of the de-dollarization carried out in Russia, which reduce the risks of currency crises due to a possible aggravation of the Western sanctions policy. She also sees as factors contributing to the strengthening of the ruble, the positive news on the Nord Stream-2 project, the strengthening of economic ties within the BRICS and the Asia-Pacific countries, a successful deal with OPEC, which are still unusually attractive to foreigners due to the high OFZ rate .

However, the experts themselves recommend not to deceive themselves too much. Still, the ruble is highly dependent on the global financial system. For example, Christmas sales will soon begin in the United States. Western online retailers will offer big discounts, and buyers from around the world, including from Russia, will be interested in buying American currency.

Despite today's growth against the dollar, the ruble as a whole is declining against the dollar-euro pair, explains Vitaliy Manzhos:

In the long run, the Russian currency inevitably and greatly weakens against the dollar and the euro. This is not very noticeable only because of the denomination of the ruble in 1998.


If the “Russian theme” again becomes relevant against the backdrop of the US presidential election and the sanctions policy is activated again, the ruble will inevitably begin to lose ground.
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  1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 2 November 2019 15: 54
    +3
    Why is the ruble growing despite 5 years of sanctions?

    - Some strange reasoning ... about the "stability of the ruble" ... - Why didn't the author say that dozens of Russian banks went bankrupt (their licenses were revoked) ... and ... - what is the position of the Russian Pension Fund ... And what is this -

    positive news on the Nord Stream-2 project, the strengthening of economic ties within the BRICS and the Asia-Pacific countries, a successful deal with OPEC

    - ?????????????????
    - It would be better to tell about the Ukropovsk hryvnia ... - why is it "holding on to the dollar" for so long and not falling ... whereas according to the forecasts of many ... mmmm ... "political economists" ... Dill "here -that should fall apart "... it would be interesting to hear ...
    1. Victor N Offline Victor N
      Victor N (Victor n) 2 November 2019 17: 37
      -2
      This is because Olivier is seasoned with mayonnaise, not honey. Do not scold the author: he writes as he sees fit. And he doesn't have to please us.
    2. 123 Offline 123
      123 (123) 5 November 2019 18: 27
      +2
      - It would be better to tell about the Ukropovsk hryvnia ... - why is it "holding on to the dollar" for so long and not falling ... whereas according to the forecasts of many ... mmmm ... "political economists" ... Dill "here -that should fall apart "... it would be interesting to hear ...

      I will tell you even without political economists. Ukraine is artificially kept afloat. On the one hand, they are on the hook, how they will behave incorrectly, they will immediately be explained that the economy will be kirdyk instantly. On the other hand, it is not profitable to do so, the reputation losses are huge. They are also building a bright future under the leadership of the "wise and free Western world." The default was supposed to come immediately after Russia's default on the loan, but the IMF stupidly rewrote the rules for them. For how then to explain that "the whole world is with them", fellow and after five years of "successful economic reforms" - lol and suddenly defaulted. belay The economy is being torn apart by the "whole world", and the default is in Ukraine. belay Somehow after that they will not look very good. repeat
  2. Monster_Fat Offline Monster_Fat
    Monster_Fat (What's the difference) 2 November 2019 17: 12
    +2
    Why is the ruble "growing"? Well, probably because the Central Bank itself periodically buys it out and sells it to itself ... There is chronically no money in the country - all the "extra" money is sent abroad according to the budgetary rule, weapons are sold for the currency that is on the Russian market does not get, but is spent immediately abroad or withdrawn to external accounts, or weapons are bought on a credit reciprocal barter, where, again, there is no "live" money. In addition, Western companies and banks began to avoid dealing with sanctioned Russia altogether in order to avoid troubles when doing business with other countries ... But inside the country, no one has money - the overwhelming majority of the population have beggarly salaries, companies stand without sales from -for low demand due to the poor population. All are credited and hypothecated for the most I can not. Any kopeck is instantly withdrawn to repay the loan ..... the population therefore has no economic activity, there is no way to either earn money or spend it - everything goes to repay loans. Considering the scanty purchasing power in such an environment, it can be stated that the demand for money will be scanty, hence the "stability" of the ruble.
  3. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 3 November 2019 18: 52
    +1
    The ruble is turning into a trash currency ... Only recently in our region there has been a sharp increase in the cost of travel by public transport, and at once by 30% ... Prices are rising, far ahead of salaries ...
    1. Tatyana Offline Tatyana
      Tatyana 4 November 2019 13: 20
      0
      The first decade of December will soon come, when foreign "labor" migrants will go to their homeland for the New Year holidays, having received money earned in Russia in rubles, convert it into American dollars and send it home. Moreover, at this time there is always a jump in the exchange rate of the $ against the ruble (the fall of the ruble).
      Recall the end of 2014, when in a short time - within about 10 days until December 10, 2014 - the $ rate in the Russian Federation jumped from 30 rubles to 65 rubles. and, in fact, remained at that level.
  4. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 5 November 2019 09: 05
    -1
    The ruble is growing, and inflation is growing ... so what's the difference?
  5. 123 Offline 123
    123 (123) 5 November 2019 17: 57
    +2
    The ruble is growing, firstly, we need to figure out whether this is good or bad, and for whom. In 2014, Mr. Obamka began tearing to shreds the economy of our hated Mordor, the ruble rate collapsed from about 32 to 62 for one bourgeois denyuzhka. They intensified the pressure and waited for the Central Bank to start throwing the currency into the bottomless barrel of maintaining the ruble. But something went wrong. Nabiullina said that there will be no strict regulation, the price of the ruble is determined by the market. As a result, the purchasing power of the ruble fell, and prices for imported goods rose. For the population, this was a minus. The government only benefited from this and solved several problems at the same time.
    1. Saved foreign exchange reserves.
    2. It has become easier to fulfill our obligations, since the currency for oil and gas was supplied in the same volume, and due to the difference in the rate of payment to the population, they became almost 2 times cheaper.
    3. The depreciation of the ruble made production on the territory of Russia more profitable, which led to an increase in production and, as a result, the ruble strengthened after 5 years, that is, today. The strengthening of the ruble clearly occurs without the efforts of the Central Bank, because it is not beneficial for the government, as it reduces the competitiveness of Russian products.
    And for us? Theoretically, a plus, since you can buy more imported goods with the same money. But their share is decreasing, they began to produce more domestically and we don’t notice much difference, with the exception of certain types of goods, such as computers. On the other hand, an excessive strengthening of the ruble will slow down production growth, resulting in lower wages. So, it is not clear whether this is good for us or bad. The main thing is that there should be no sudden jumps, and they are not expected on the horizon. There are simply no prerequisites. Indicated in the article without a smile can not be considered.

    For example, Christmas sales will soon begin in the United States. Western online retailers will offer big discounts, and buyers from around the world, including from Russia, will be interested in buying American currency.

    Dear Russians, closer to the new year rush to buy dollars on an industrial scale, so much so that this will affect the ruble? belay I don’t know how you do in Moscow, but it is not accepted in Russia. Everything that can be sold in America is easier to buy directly from the manufacturer, in China. Maybe someone can provide data on how last year's sale in the US affected the ruble exchange rate? I don’t remember that. request

    Despite today's growth against the dollar, the ruble as a whole is declining against the dollar-euro pair. In the long run, the Russian currency inevitably and greatly weakens against the dollar and the euro.

    What is this written for? Show that everything is bad with us? So it’s not a fact that ruble appreciation is a positive factor in the end.

    This is not very noticeable only because of the denomination of the ruble in 1998.

    How not noticeable? In 2014, didn’t anyone notice any changes? I don’t know who how, I’m used to the fact that the long-term period is 10 years. And then 1998. request What does it matter? And why then not compared to the 1913th year?

    If the “Russian theme” again becomes relevant against the backdrop of the US presidential election and the sanctions policy is activated again, the ruble will inevitably begin to lose ground.

    It will certainly become relevant, only the influence of external factors on our economy is gradually declining.
    In general, the course will float, most importantly, so that there are no sharp jumps.
  6. Observer2014 Offline Observer2014
    Observer2014 5 November 2019 21: 54
    -1
    If the dollar starts to fall systematically. And from all the media the gaps will begin to sing odes to the ruble. So, after a year and a half or two, wait for the collapse of the next ruble. laughing Proven for decades. yes