Nord Stream 2: problems will not end with Danish resolution

5
On the eve of the "Reporter" came out publicationin which we talked about the prospects for the participation of Nord Stream-2 in the upcoming European heating season. It contained “prophetic” words - “even a miracle happened, and Denmark today issues a permit ...”. And it, a miracle, happened: Denmark really allowed Gazprom to lay a gas pipeline yesterday. What will change in relations between Russia and Ukraine?





Why did you give?


Wits on the Web compare Denmark with a decent girl who gave permission to the persistent gentleman from the third call. Indeed, the first application was sent to Copenhagen already two years ago. However, he refused to provide his territorial waters to Russia because of a "threat to national security." The second application was based on a route outside territorial waters in Danish exclusive economic zone. A year has passed since its filing. It remained to lay the pipeline bypassing the Kingdom, but the third application of Gazprom was satisfied.

Why did Denmark finally allow herself to be broken?

At first, simply because she had no real reason for refusing. Already three European countries with similar environmental laws have issued a permit for Nord Stream-2. There was nothing else but politicking in delaying the answer.

SecondlyAgainst the background of the ugliness with the Russian application, Copenhagen satisfied the desire of Norway and Poland to build the Baltic Pipeline, which will be laid in the same waters. Gazprom management threatened Denmark with a court in which it had good chances to win and receive compensation.

ThirdlyThe kingdom clearly did not like the awkward courtship of Donald Trump, who wanted to put his hand on Greenland.

What's next?


A logical question arises, but what next? Russia defeated the adversaries? The answer will not be entirely clear.

On the one hand, as we said earlier, the upcoming heating season in the EU will nevertheless pass by Nord Stream-2. Gazprom will lay the Danish offshore section in 4-5 weeks, that is, by the end of the year it will fit perfectly. However, it is realistic to start pumping gas until March 2020. Even if the Europeans are in time to complete the completion of the Eugal gas pipeline, they will spend several months on commissioning. On January 1, Russian gas will not be able to go through Nord Stream-2, which means that the problem with Ukrainian transit this winter will not be removed.

On the other hand, by spring the pipeline will be launched, and dependence on Kiev will decrease. Industry expert Konstantin Simonov explains:

That is, all gas issues with Ukraine come down to how to live the first quarter of 2020, if Kiev does not sign a transit contract.


In aggregate, this sharply weakens the negotiating position of Independent on the issue of concluding a 10-year transit contract on enslaving terms, which indicated the absence of Denmark’s consent. It is not surprising that perked Russian authorities offered Kiev a “zero option” with the cancellation of mutual claims for billions of dollars.

Also, let's not forget that Gazprom still has to deal with the restrictions of the Third EU energy package for the operation of Nord Stream-2.
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5 comments
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  1. AICO
    AICO
    -1
    31 October 2019 11: 48
    Gazprom still has to deal with the restrictions of the Third EU energy package for the operation of Nord Stream-2

    In February, decide.
  2. Astronaut
    Astronaut
    +4
    31 October 2019 11: 49
    And the author is aware that Gazprom "clogged" ESovskie UGS (in particular Baumgarten) with gas to fulfill its obligations, in case Denmark does not give permission and the construction of the SP-2 will have to bypass?
    So Ukraine flies like plywood over Paris in any way. laughing
    1. kapitan92
      kapitan92
      +2
      31 October 2019 16: 44
      EUGAL pipes are being laid along the existing OPAL pipeline, the onshore section of the first phase of Nord Stream. The total length of EUGAL from the Baltic Sea to the Czech border will be approximately 480 kilometers.
      The construction is being carried out by an international consortium led by Gascade Gasstransport GmbH, a joint venture between German BASF and Russian Gazprom. The pipeline capacities have been booked until 2037.
      According to the plans, about 80 percent of the gas that will be delivered via Nord Stream 2 will go through EUGAL pipes in transit towards the Czech Republic, and from there to the Austrian gas hub Baumgarten. The remaining 20 percent is for branches to Germany.
      Access to the pipe is open to all comers - transit facilities can be booked at open auctions.

      In particular, 80 percent are already booked long-term, and 20 percent are left free for spontaneous bookings - in full accordance with the rules established by the German Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur).

      Work is in full swing - The first stage of the EUGAL project, the onshore extension of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, should be ready and put into operation by the end of this year, the pipeline will work at full capacity in another year ..
      The Germans are able to fulfill contractual obligations!

      Quote: Astronaut
      So Ukraine flies like plywood over Paris in any way.

      A little floundering, but in a year they’ll fly!
  3. 123
    123
    +3
    31 October 2019 23: 40
    I bow to the stubborn persistence of the author. hi Three days ago there was a similar article. What has changed since then?

    problems with Denmark will not end

    Which ones?

    1.
    The upcoming heating season in the EU will still pass by Nord Stream-2

    The question is, when does it end? And in Italy, for example, depending on the climate zone from March 15 to April 15.

    https://miaitalia.info/view_news_italy.php?id=2472

    I doubt that on the shores of the Baltic and there the heating is stopped earlier. A second question arises, but will they manage to launch it?
    Underwater part - 147 km left to be completed.

    pipe laying speed averages more than 3 kilometers per day

    Total, 147/3 = 49 days. Further filling the pipe with technical gas. How long will it take? The Power of Siberia, for example, took 2 months (from August 29 to October 29). In total, approximately mid-February is the maximum, and this is under the most unfortunate coincidence of circumstances. Taking into account the reserves created in the storage facilities, Gazprom will be able to fulfill its obligations. Yes What, excuse me, "flight" are we talking about? request Gas is already being supplied and will be supplied.

    2.
    Even if the Europeans are in time to complete the completion of the Eugal gas pipeline, they will spend several months on commissioning. January 1, Russian gas on the "Nord Stream-2" will not be able to go

    What remains to be completed? As of October 18

    the first string with a length of 480 kilometers and a capacity of 30,9 billion cubic meters per year is fully welded and laid in trenches. 16 kilometers are left to completely fill the trenches.

    https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2019/10/18/eugal-prodolzhenie-severnogo-potoka-2-v-germanii-gotovyat-k-zapusku

    The pipe was laid and I think that in 2 weeks the Germans were able to fill 16. km of trench. Let them set it up, they have those same 2 months before the new year and another 1,5 months from above, if they do not have time to fill the underwater part. That is, problems with the ground part are not seen at all.
    As for Ukraine

    It is not surprising that perked Russian authorities offered Kiev a “zero option” with the cancellation of mutual claims for billions of dollars.

    This option was proposed long before Denmark's decision, it was simply voiced again. It will not completely get rid of the Ukrainian transit, but Ukraine also cannot refuse to pump it. Otherwise, left without gas, "disgruntled villagers" in a month will raise Pan Zelensky on a pitchfork. And with the third energy package, if something happens, there were precedents. As soon as there is not enough gas, pumping will be allowed, and it doesn't matter what they call it, "interim measures" or something else. They will not leave themselves without gas.
  4. Marzhecki
    Marzhecki
    0
    1 November 2019 07: 46
    Quote: 123
    And with the third energy package, in which case, they will decide, there were precedents. As soon as there is not enough gas, pumping will be allowed, and it doesn't matter what they call it, "interim measures" or something else. They will not leave themselves without gas.

    Well, then we'll talk.