Has Gazprom waved a hand over the heating season in Europe?

October 29 2019 19

Washington and Kiev have achieved their goal: January 1, 2020, Russian gas will not go around Ukraine. Does this mean that we can talk about the complete defeat of Gazprom?

Initially, the task of the domestic monopolist was to build two alternative routes to the Ukrainian GTS before the end of the year, when the transit agreement expires, in order to keep up with the heating season. However, the opposition to Russian projects, obviously, broke all deadlines.

Media reports that the Turkish Stream is almost complete. The pipeline will have to pump up to 31,5 billion cubic meters of gas. However, for some reason, it is not specified that we are talking about the line of the pipeline that is intended for the domestic market of Turkey. The second, called the Balkan Stream, will work at best in 2021. It is through it that transit will go directly to Europe. In addition, Naftogaz Ukrainy made trouble for the Turkish Stream construction contractor, South Stream Transport BV, by seeking the arrest of its shares through a court. There is no doubt that the builders of the transit line will also face problems.

The “Danish epic” continues at the “Nord Stream-2”. Copenhagen never issued permission for any of Gazprom’s three applications. By itself, laying a pipeline in Danish waters will take no more than 4-5 weeks. The Russian side threatens the Danes with a court because of the obvious politicization of their position: recently, they calmly and without delay allowed the construction of the Norwegian-Polish Baltic Pipe gas pipeline. But we have things there too.

Why does Gazprom not take measures to lay a pipeline bypassing Denmark, in neutral waters? Well-known Russian expert in the field of energy Igor Yushkov admits that the company's management has already “waved a hand” for the next heating season in Europe:

Previously, there was a hope that we would complete the offshore part of the gas pipeline and supply at least some of the volumes through it. But now the situation is such that the Europeans did not build the EUGAL gas pipeline - a continuation of Nord Stream-2 in Germany and Austria.

That is, even a miracle happened, and Denmark issues a permit today, and in 4-5 weeks the offshore part of the pipeline is completed, commissioning is carried out, there is simply nothing to connect to it on the shore. This means only one thing: on January 1 of next year, Nord Stream-2 will definitely not start working.

Objectively, the winter heating season of 2019-2020 in Europe passes by Nord Stream-2 and Turkish Stream. If so, then why make an extra fuss by laying a pipeline to bypass Denmark?

Now the new deadline for Gazprom is July 2020. Then European consumers will again begin to pump gas reserves into their storage facilities for the next heating season, in which bypass pipelines will be able to take part. But the coming winter will be "fun."

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Arkharov

0

29 October 2019 10: 40

Will Europe freeze, or will it solve its problems differently? What about Gazprom? Another big geopolitical victory, or what?
1. Nick
  
  +1
  
  29 October 2019 13: 00
  
  Quote: Arkharov
  Will Europe freeze, or will it solve its problems differently?
  
  Europe will simply put on another sweater before bed and that’s it. There is nothing to replace Gazprom supplies in full in Western Europe. You can, of course, buy liquefied gas, but it is more expensive, and its volume is insufficient to replace Russian pipe.
  1. Arkharov
    
    0
    
    29 October 2019 13: 19
    
    Maybe, but this is the first time I see such excitement in our official propaganda. It seems that court cases are not very good there either. Probably not so simple?
    1. Nick
      
      +1
      
      29 October 2019 13: 28
      
      Quote: Arkharov
      Maybe, but this is the first time I see such excitement in our official propaganda. Probably not so simple?
      
      If the sales volume falls, for any reason, it is always unpleasant, because profit falls too. For state. There is nothing critical in the budget. He is already surplus. Well, less than a couple of yards of euros this year - get it next.
      1. lev1759
        
        +2
        
        29 October 2019 22: 17
        
        Well, less than a couple of yards of euros this year - get it next.
        
        You don't have to worry about this. The Power of Siberia will be launched in December. What will be lost from the Caucasians - we will get from the Chinese.
2. topograf
  
  0
  
  30 October 2019 06: 13
  
  Exactly - or how !!! Believing everything written on the Internet is not respecting yourself! Therefore, until the thunder struck - you don't need to be baptized! The next meeting on this issue (gas transit) will take place at the end of November and we should wait for an official explanation from Gazprom on this topic.
kriten

+6

29 October 2019 13: 46

If money is more important for Europe for Ukraine than transit without it, then let the winter do without transit ...
gorenina91

-8

29 October 2019 14: 45

Has Gazprom waved a hand over the heating season in Europe?

- Ah .. what "unexpected news" ... -Personally, in the topic "Denmark issued a permit for the construction of a competitor of Nord Stream-2" "I already wrote that

Late, Denmark .., too late ... -North Stream-2 already ... passed away ...
Potapov

+3

29 October 2019 15: 25

They don’t need, but the Russian people need it. Are frozen. Well, to hell with them ...
1. Arkharov
  
  0
  
  29 October 2019 16: 06
  
  No one will freeze.
Marzhecki

-1

29 October 2019 16: 33

Quote: Arkharov
Maybe, but this is the first time I see such excitement in our official propaganda. It seems that court cases are not very good there either. Probably not so simple?

You are a funny and naive person if you think the Reporter is official propaganda.
steelmaker

-3

29 October 2019 16: 41

Gazprom is run by stupid, dishonorable creatures. What did they agree on there? They build on the sea, but on the ground "the horse did not roll." And through Ukraine without a contract are going to pump gas? How much money is down the drain. Why think? Homeland will not become poorer !?
Victor N

0

29 October 2019 17: 40

If we proceed from the fact that Gazprom is both stupid and traitors - then YES, it’s nice to consider yourself the smartest .... What if the plan “B”, and the plan “C”, and the plan are not quite right. E "?
123

0

29 October 2019 18: 26

That is, even a miracle happened, and Denmark issues a permit today, and in 4-5 weeks the offshore part of the pipeline is completed, commissioning is carried out, there is simply nothing to connect to it on the shore.

Is it really so?

“The Eugal project, the construction of the first line of the Eugal gas pipeline, which is a continuation of Nord Stream-2 in Germany, will be completed at the end of 2019 and the first gas deliveries are possible from 2020. This is stated in the response of GASCADE Gastransport GmbH spokesman Georg Wustner to EADaily's request.
“The Eugal project is on schedule,” said Georg Wustner. The letter says that the first string with a length of 480 kilometers and a capacity of 30,9 billion cubic meters per year is fully welded and laid in trenches. 16 kilometers are left to completely fill the trenches.

https://eadaily.com/ru/news/2019/10/18/eugal-prodolzhenie

Do you think they won’t have time before the new year? There is reason to doubt the competence of German builders?
1. Marzhecki
  
  +2
  
  30 October 2019 12: 48
  
  First, add a couple more months to commissioning. And there the heating season will end.
  Secondly, German builders themselves may fall into American sanctions or other troubles.
  1. 123
    
    -1
    
    30 October 2019 19: 26
    
    First, add a couple more months to commissioning.
    
    Will the marine part be launched right away? There are no commissioning?
    
    And there the heating season will end.
    
    The heating season does not end on March XNUMXst.
    
    Gazprom’s new deadline is July 2020
    
    Four months will be inflated balls and decorate the podium?
    
    Secondly, German builders themselves may fall into American sanctions or other troubles.
    
    Or they may not get it. It's like a blonde chance to meet a dinosaur. May meet, but may not. 50/50.
    That’s the kind of analytics we get - incomprehensible, unreasonable deadlines, assumptions and assumptions.
  2. 123
    
    0
    
    30 October 2019 19: 43
    
    Here the information was posted on the site. Denmark "gave the go-ahead", it remains to complete 147 km.
    
    Alexey Miller assured that the laying of the pipeline in Danish waters will take no more than 5 weeks.
    
    So, I don’t see real reasons to talk about summer.
boriz

+2

30 October 2019 00: 34

Maybe they just decided to replace Ukraine and the EU? Existing pipes will be maximized, LNG will be driven from Yamal. Losses, to some extent, are compensated by the Power of Siberia. And the remaining losses are uncritical: the budget is in surplus, the surplus goes to the IMF, and so they get killed there.
And Ukraine, in a chill, is dry. You can then, on shares with the EU, buy the ruins of ukroGTS (although it is easier to build one new one for sending to Slovakia and Moldova, the rest will not be needed in a year). And then the EU will not be so eager to hold on to the letter of the law.
But there can be no complaints against Gazprom (taking into account the third energy package). Novak and Miller will quietly laugh at the geyropeytsami and those who joined them ...
Screw

+1

30 October 2019 05: 14

Russian gas will go through Norway in accordance with the third EU EC package. The Polish pipe reaches the shore not far from the German one, about 5 km, the consequence is obvious. And it was not necessary to commit a legal entity. "crossbow". And since we are close, it is obvious who will benefit. "Double blow" with "X-ray" for Americans is nothing personal - geopolitical chess. Apart from Reshevsky, there is not a single Pole in chess, including Brzezinski. Genetics, sir!