According to the scenario proposed by Dr. Richard Hooker, senior researcher at the Jamestone Foundation of the United States, the first actions of Russia in the event of a military conflict will be the sea blockade of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, as well as blocking sea approaches to the northern capital - St. Petersburg.
It is assumed that on land, Russia will attack Europe through Lithuania and Belarus, fearing to get stuck in Poland, which has a thousand tanks.
As a response to NATO, Hooker envisions the capture of a Russian exclave - the Kaliningrad region. In his opinion, this operation will take about four weeks - two to overcome all types of defense of the region, primarily air defense and missile defense, and two more to hold it until the arrival of the main forces of the North Atlantic Alliance.
However, at the very end of his plan, the American doctor of science concludes that even having captured the Kaliningrad region, the United States will not achieve anything: the conflict will result in the entry of the Baltic republics and Belarus into Russia, after which there will be nothing left for NATO countries to return through peaceful negotiations and the captured Kaliningrad region.