Why Turkey Should Not Be Allowed to Create a “Northern Syrian People's Republic”

Turkish military operation in Syria is suspended for five days under pressure from the United States. On October 20, negotiations will be held in Sochi at which Presidents Erdogan and Putin will discuss another option for the redivision of the north of the SAR. What will official Damascus gain and lose at the same time?




The third in a row over the past few years, Turkey's invasion of the sovereign Syrian Arab Republic began on October 9, 2019. His goal was the purification of the border areas with Turkey from the armed formations of the Kurds, which are recognized by Ankara as terrorist organizations. President Erdogan bluntly stated:

We want the areas where the [Syrian] regime is present to be completely cleared of the militants of the Kurdistan Workers Party and the People’s Self-Defense Forces.


This operation was called the "Source of the World", but actually became the source of a lot of problems. Ankara’s actions provoked an extremely negative reaction even from the side of the NATO allies. Washington imposed sanctions against Turkey, threatening to destroy it the economy. European capitals have advocated cutting off arms supplies to the Turks. In response, President Erdogan made it clear that he could open the way to the EU for millions of Syrian refugees.

By the way, refugees are one of the key problems that Ankara is trying to solve at the expense of Syria. The Turkish leader sees the result of Operation Source of Peace as follows:

The terrorist organization will leave the security zone 32 km wide and 444 km long from west to east, as we agreed.


Over two million people who fled the war from the ATS will be resettled to this buffer zone along the entire border. At the same time, President Erdogan “does not mind” if Syrian soldiers stand in the key city of the Manbij region. It sounds like a good idea, but is it worth Damascus and Moscow to agree to such a scenario?

The Russian media is now euphoric because “Putin outplayed everyone again” and helped Assad regain control of the Kurds and most of northern Syria. Indeed, this can be rejoiced, but it is worth evaluating the situation at least a couple of steps forward. And here, not everything is clear.

Ankara intends to take part of the territory belonging to Damascus along its entire border. 32 kilometers at 444 — 14208 square kilometers are obtained. This is the area between Montenegro and East Timor, more than Cyprus, Qatar or Jamaica. For comparison, the DPR occupies 8540 square kilometers, the LPR - 7588. In fact, Turkey is creating its “Northern Syrian People's Republic” at the expense of the SAR, where several million Arabs will be resettled to replace the local Kurdish population.

All these people will have to be arranged somehow, the formation of governing bodies will be required. If you call a spade a spade, there will appear "two Syria", one near Damascus, the second - pro-Turkish. Formally, the Turks may even get out of this "SNR", but they will manage it through their "military" and "White Kamaz". And when needed, a "wind from the north" will blow.

“Two Syria” is not a source of peace, but of constant tension and preconditions for a future civil war.
Photos used: https://dailystorm.ru
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11 comments
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  1. Arkharov Offline
    Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 20 October 2019 09: 50
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    For the first time, in general, I agree with the author.
  2. Igor Pavlovich Offline
    Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 20 October 2019 12: 10
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    Well, why not? Erdogan does the same as Putin in Ukraine, only he doesn’t lie about “coming”, military commissions in the mines of the Donetsk steppes and “humanitarian convoys” with weapons and ammunition in white KAMAZs from Russia ...
  3. zenion Offline
    zenion (zinovy) 20 October 2019 13: 36
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    First, explain where Turia is and what does Turkey have to do with Turia?
  4. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 20 October 2019 13: 37
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    Quote: Igor Pavlovich
    Well, why not? Erdogan does the same as Putin in Ukraine, only he doesn’t lie about “coming”, military commissions in the mines of the Donetsk steppes and “humanitarian convoys” with weapons and ammunition in white KAMAZs from Russia ...

    Because in this matter, Russia is an ally of Syria.
    1. Arkharov Offline
      Arkharov (Grigory Arkharov) 20 October 2019 17: 54
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      And in other matters, whose?
  5. gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) 20 October 2019 13: 48
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    - Yes, you can create at least as many “syrias” ...
    - If only “that Syria”, for which Russia is now cut, was oil and abundant fresh water ... - And huge sandy Syrian open spaces can be offered for creating at least five “Syria” ...
    - For some reason, everyone rested only on oil and gas ... - And today, Syria is just as dependent on Turkey as the Russian Crimea once on the supply of Dnieper water ...

    Turkish authorities took control of the Euphrates, turning Syria in the field of water supply hostage to Ankara. When the era of general water shortage began during a major drought in southwest Asia, Turkey “intercepted” the Euphrates: about 15 billion cubic meters of water “settles” in the territory controlled by Ankara, and this is half the total volume of the waters of the great river. But the Euphrates is actually considered the main source of fresh water in Syria.

    As for Syrian oil .., it is also unclear ... - who today controls the oil fields of Syria ...
    - Alas ...
  6. Rusa Offline
    Rusa 20 October 2019 15: 23
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    And why "32 km wide and 444 km long"?
    Because Ankara and Washington agreed so verbally? Without the consent of Damascus and the UN Security Council?
    Turkey’s military intervention in Syria is its initiative on various far-fetched pretexts, which the USA, the European Union and other NATO countries, as well as Arab countries have already condemned. Ankara needs to implement the UN Security Council resolution on Syria, stop the genocide of the Syrians and support for the Daesh and al-Qaeda terrorists.
    1. Lucius tarquinius (Lucius Tarquinius) 21 October 2019 14: 16
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      Does anyone else comply with UN resolutions? For example, in the Crimea or Ukraine in general? In Abkhazia, South Ossetia? Or is it just for Turkey?
  7. Sergey Latyshev Offline
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 20 October 2019 20: 34
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    What Erdogan will ask a journalist? So we caught him in supporting terrorists, and so what?
    He spat, pounded, and bought the S-400.
  8. Lucius tarquinius (Lucius Tarquinius) 21 October 2019 14: 18
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    Quote: Sergey Latyshev
    What Erdogan will ask a journalist? So we caught him in supporting terrorists, and so what?
    He spat, pounded, and bought the S-400.

    And who caught it? Where? Is there a formal prosecution of Turkey? Or did you have a dream?
  9. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 23 October 2019 07: 08
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    Assad does not consider the invasion of Turkey as a peacekeeping operation. And that's it.