Economic situation in Europe forces Berlin to lift sanctions against Russia

Bad games in the “coercion” of our country to something there crawled sideways, first of all German the economy, which is today, sadly (for the inhabitants of this country), in a far from blooming state.



Verily, the state aspiring to leadership in the European Union was likened to that non-commissioned officer widow from the immortal play of Gogol, who, according to Gorodnichy, committed public flogging herself. What exactly did Berlin attempt to influence Russia with the help of pressure and restriction, and how could it end for the German side?

As they entered, they had fun, counted, they burst into tears ...


What the Germans definitely cannot refuse is the ability to count. Reducing balances, comparing the pros and cons of them always turned out very cool. Well, almost always ... Recently, the best representatives of the “gloomy Teutonic genius”, such an impression, almost without exception attended to mathematical exercises on the topic: “What do the sanctions against Russia cost us?” The question is really where as relevant. For example, the German publication Handelsblatt recently introduced its readers to the entertaining expositions of two well-known scientists at once, Matthieu Croze from Hong Kong University of Lynnan and Julian Hinz representing the Kiel Institute of World Economy. According to their studies, the restrictions imposed by various states and the counter-sanction measures taken by our country, in general, cost all parties to this “trade war" a whopping $ 4 billion a month! At the same time, as the experts report with some bewilderment, it somehow happened that these losses fall approximately equally on both sides. 55% of losses are suffered by the Russian economy, but 45% are just the countries that unleashed the sanctions company. So who is “punishing” whom ?! It’s not entirely clear ... However, this is only half the trouble. In fact, 92% of the damage that the “educators” of our country suffer is precisely due to the states of the European Union.

At the same time, of all the numerous representatives of the Old World, the most painful restrictions hit precisely in Germany. It accounts for almost 40% of real losses. In absolute terms, this looks like almost $ 670 million a month, which the German economy receives less. At the same time, the "pedagogical effect" of all this action, as the pundits have to admit, is practically zero. According to their calculations, as a result of the "war of sanctions" imposed on us by the West, "the consumer basket of Russians has risen in price by 0.2%." A stunning result! There was something to break spears for ... At the same time, as noted by all the same Hinz and Crozier, "Russia is less and less dependent on imported products, successfully developing its agriculture." Incidentally, this is precisely what a number of influential regional politicians Germany - for example, Manuela Schwesig, Prime Minister of the federal state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and her colleague Michael Kretschmer, who at that time headed the government of the federal state of Saxony. Both of them believe that if the sanctions hit anyone really, it was the German agricultural and industrial producers who lost access to the colossal Russian market. Most of all, politicians are worried that China is more and more confident in the "vacant seat"; both of them in their speeches expressed confidence that the early lifting of sanctions meets, first of all, the national interests of Germany itself.

A ghost wanders through Europe ...


And, indeed, he wanders ... But not at all communism, as the bearded founders of the “most advanced doctrine” once claimed, but economic decline and recession. And today he is knocking at the door of Germany. According to local media, the danger of the crisis threatens the country with a huge degree of probability. So, according to the German Institute for Macroeconomics (IMK), announced by one of the most respected German publications, Die Welt, the chances of the country “slipping” into a recession, which it had not known for the last six years, are estimated at 43%. And this is by no means speculative conclusions - according to the results of the 2nd quarter of this year, the German economy showed a decline of 0.1%. It seems to be not so much, but it should be borne in mind that the economic indicators of the European Union as a whole for the same period show growth. Suppose it’s a fraction of a percent, but GDP “goes uphill” in France, the Netherlands, even in Spain. Is Germany, instead of the role of the "economic locomotive" of the EU, the miserable fate of an "outsider"? Today, many local analysts are asking this question and come to very disappointing conclusions. A 2% decline in industrial production is alarming. But here the drop in German exports by as much as 8% is completely out of the ordinary ... Of course, the British also play their negative role here, having completely exhausted the nerves of Europe with their Brexit, and the trade squabble between the USA and China. However, judicious and knowledgeable people in Germany are well aware that the key to solving their problems must be sought in the East.

Like it or not, but among all the EU countries, Moscow’s trade partner No. 1 is precisely Berlin. According to Eurostat, last year, German exports to our country amounted to 26 billion euros, and the Germans, respectively, imported 33 billion euros of Russian goods. Such a trade deficit, of course, does not please the German side. Especially when you consider that before the imposition of sanctions, the balance of Russian-European trade was leaning towards the EU. According to experts there, it will be extremely difficult for Germany to “counteract the external economic shock,” relying solely on the fairly sagging domestic market recently. They fear that without sufficient opportunities to sell manufactured goods, German industry risks "drowning" and starting a global recession that will affect the whole country. But there are huge opportunities for increasing sales - these are, only, one might say, lend a hand! But sanctions, sanctions, even if they were three times wrong ... Not without reason, Michael Harms, executive director of the Eastern Committee of the German Economy, recently made an extremely harsh statement on this subject. In his opinion, not only Germany, but the entire European Union as a whole today faces a choice: "to restore strong ties with Russia or to be crushed into powder, having landed between the USA and China."

May be enough?!


Incidentally, it was the organization named above that was the organizer of the parliamentary forum I mentioned at the very beginning, which was held last month and devoted exclusively to the issues of resuming economic relations with our country. Specifically, the speedy rejection of all and all kinds of anti-Russian sanctions. The Germans, apparently, the current situation is completely "tired". The same Herr Harms allows himself absolutely seditious statements, such as statements about the fundamental futility of any restrictions against Russia, since they, in his opinion, "only make Russian society rally even closer around Vladimir Putin." However, he only expresses the general mood of German entrepreneurs. A survey conducted this summer by the German-Russian Chamber of Commerce (AHK) among representatives of about one and a half hundred local firms showed very clearly that the vast majority are dissatisfied with sanctions. Not only that - almost 90% of the respondents began to directly blame Angela Merkel for the fact that she ... takes an insufficient personal part in normalizing and strengthening trade relations between the countries! Like, Frau Chancellor could well have found time to “attend major industry events” of Russian industry and business. The crown, you see, would not have fallen, but they could have got hold of the necessary contracts before the cut! And, as many believe, it’s possible to stay up too long - the Chinese people won’t impose any sanctions, so the Russians began to “have a lot more trust in them than in German companies.”

Such sentiments quite predictably push German politicians to definite proposals. Reflecting in the walls of the Bundestag on the topic of “breaking the blockade,” many of them spoke out very radically. So, Klaus Ernst, who represents the Party of the Left and is the head of the parliamentary committee on economics and energy, not only came up with the idea that Germany should initiate the lifting of anti-Russian restrictions at the European Union level, but even offered a reason for such a decision. There, the Americans, it seems, are our goods collected with duties to be collected? So in response to them we will not only set our tariffs, but also refuse sanctions against Moscow! So that they would know ... His position was supported by a parliamentarian from the Christian Social Union, the head of the committee for economic cooperation and development Peter Ramsauer, as well as Bernd Westphal, a deputy from the Social Democratic Party of Germany. The latter does believe that “after five years of unnecessary sanctions” the first step “for rapprochement with Russia” must be taken by the German side. Well, that sounds more than reasonable. To pay nearly 700 million dollars a month is not just incomprehensible for what, but, in fact, fulfilling the will of the United States, who are about to start a “trade war" already against the European Union itself? Somehow it does not fit with the well-established ideas about the vaunted German logic and practicality.

Well, one can only hope that by “checking with algebra” the ridiculously spoiled harmony of economic relations between our countries, Germany will move from very laudable political statements to concrete steps, without putting off this good deed, as they say, in a long box.
Photos used: https://www.tz.de
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  1. SERGEY SERGEEVICS 18 October 2019 08: 53
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    From the very beginning, it was not necessary to introduce them, they themselves perfectly understood that nothing good would come of it anyway, they themselves had only done worse. And there was nothing to sing to the band's tune.
  2. Pishenkov Offline
    Pishenkov (Alexey) 18 October 2019 09: 38
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    ... in Germany they will move from very laudable political statements to concrete steps, not putting off this good deed, as they say, in the long run.

    - they would be really helped by some important formal reason - well, such as Ukraine’s refusal to comply with the Minsk Agreements ...
    1. 123 Offline
      123 (123) 18 October 2019 11: 50
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      There is a reason. The troop withdrawal has been foiled. But unfortunately they are not ready yet to admit that they are wrong or simply do not allow them. So far, approximately like this:

      PARIS, Oct 16 - RIA Novosti. France and Germany welcome the recent shifts in the implementation of the Minsk agreements on the Donbass and expect a meeting in the "Norman format" (France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine) in Paris, a joint statement said

      1. Pishenkov Offline
        Pishenkov (Alexey) 18 October 2019 13: 40
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        ... so far they are afraid to officially recognize it. Now the snot will chew a little, another try, more negotiations ... but for a maximum of six months, you have to admit that dill has done everything ... And then we'll see ... how much their losses really hurt them.
        1. you Offline
          you (in) 19 October 2019 21: 54
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          The Western market is closed by quotas for Ross. goods, the Russian Federation also in response to close the market.
  3. Potapov Offline
    Potapov (Valery) 18 October 2019 09: 44
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    No illusions needed. How to remove, and put on ... Only domestic investment. In humans, everything is 91-2000 years in the brain. Wake up.
  4. 123 Offline
    123 (123) 18 October 2019 10: 20
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    When the sanctions were imposed, everything looked a little different. I imagine how the dark-skinned overseas “prince” in all colors described how together they tear to shreds the economy of these impudent Russians, practically unlimited prospects open up for “drang nah osten”. Ukraine is at the feet of the legendary chancellor, the greatest politician of the German nation.fellow After all, she will be able to complete the case of Aloizych, 70 years ago mediocre everything about .... (well, you know) sad . And all this without war. Her portraits in all the squares of girls born are called Angels without exception, the burghers raise the first toast to the health of the Teutonic "elbasy". drinks In general, Bismarck nervously smokes on the sidelines.good
    But something went wrong ...... Maybe grandfather did not return from the war and did not tell little Angela how it happens?
    The article is, of course, slightly optimistic. Angelina Vaterland will survive 670 million a month, while Russia somehow suffers a loss of 2 billion. But in general, the situation for Germany is deadlock. Sanctions, they will not achieve anything. Ukraine? Yes, here it is, all the more beautiful and more beautiful ..... if you please, use it. And here is Uncle Donald promises sanctions ..... In general, the prospects are vague. (By the way, it is interesting, in Germany, they also write in the comments that she has been in power for 300 years and where is the economic growth? Or is it just that the authors pay extra for this to us?).
    Confess that she is just a fool fool and everything is to blame for Obamych, who deceived a windy girl ....? Pride does not allow. This is political suicide. In general, everything will go as it is, without changes, until the ingenious chancellor knocks down a pension to grow cabbage surrounded by refugees dear to her heart.
    Meanwhile, life did not stop, the European Union ceases to be the largest trading partner of Russia.
    1. Pishenkov Offline
      Pishenkov (Alexey) 18 October 2019 14: 01
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      Grandma Angela is far from Aloizych, like the moon, and all modern Euro-leaders too. I’m silent about Bismarck. Merkel is not a stupid madam, I think she understands that she can’t swing her arms of the great ancestors. And she also knows the consequences of such attempts, do not underestimate her, she still has a high-quality basic education of the GDR ...
      And in Germany itself and the rest of the EU, the problems are not so much in sanctions - the export of capital and production, as a result of the falling purchasing power of the domestic market, and on this basis, which is why all the obstacles to export have become so sensitive. The United States forced them to execute their sanctions with fear of losing the American market, which, whatever one may say, cannot be compared with the Russian market, and only then they also limited this - the import of European goods to itself, that is. The Americans “crowned” all of this by withdrawing from the treaty with Iran, where the Europeans had just pushed grandmothers ... and from there they had to get out. Plus, the migration crisis, again due to US actions in Libya and the Middle East, the rise in price of everything and everything because of too active "environmental protection" and the rejection of nuclear energy .. and many more minor troubles ... But now it turns out so that of all these problems, sanctions against Russia are just what can be solved quickly and easily, unlike everything else - just to lift and lift. The sun from this, of course, will not immediately rise over Vaterland, but very, very many people will definitely breathe easier ... and that is why the pragmatic Germans are careful, in small steps, but they are talking about the lifting of anti-Russian sanctions more often - this is by far the fastest and easiest a way to achieve, although not a cardinal, but still quick and noticeable improvement in the economic situation in the country ...
      1. 123 Offline
        123 (123) 18 October 2019 18: 55
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        Everything is correct, only how can they refuse sanctions without "losing face"? It’s easier for Macron, he didn’t introduce, therefore, he says that it’s time to shoot. And here is how Merkel say:
        - "Sorry, I was wrong, I realized, I’ll correct, and for five years I’ve just been dumb"?
        It’s the same as suddenly starting to evict migrants back.
        This is just an addition to the reasons for maintaining the sanctions that you have listed. The leading role of the USA is obvious.
        1. Pishenkov Offline
          Pishenkov (Alexey) 21 October 2019 09: 18
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          ... it seems to me that is why it would be beneficial for the Germans if Ukraine “officially” tore off “Minsk” - there is a formal pretext for lifting the sanctions ...
          And they also evict migrants slowly, without too much noise - they are denied refugee status and expelled. Some, of course, scatter along the “Schengen”, but the process is also going on there ... although, of course, in comparison with what arrived, it's tears ...
  5. Oleg Rambover Offline
    Oleg Rambover (Oleg Rambover) 18 October 2019 11: 05
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    The impact of sanctions on the Russian economy is minimal, even less they affect the German economy. If there are problems in the German economy, the lifting of sanctions will not solve them, from the word at all.
  6. boriz Offline
    boriz (boriz) 18 October 2019 11: 13
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    What is the water in the mortar crush? Germany is a non-independent country. From the Washington regional committee gave the command "impose sanctions!". They entered. Now the influence of the United States is slowly weakening, so timid voices were heard: "Maybe, these, these sanctions?" It seems like a test of the US reaction. There will be no rude cry of "Stand, Dawn!" - and they’ll take off slowly.
  7. Artie Offline
    Artie (Artyom Korolev) 18 October 2019 11: 54
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    German industry growth - (minus) 6.2%. Russian industry growth - + 3.1%. Let them sanction us further.
    1. Artie Offline
      Artie (Artyom Korolev) 18 October 2019 11: 57
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      I hope that sanctions will never be lifted from us. Otherwise, we will open the market for them again and will sit exclusively on Western products.
  8. gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) 19 October 2019 07: 43
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    The economic situation in Europe is forcing Berlin to lift sanctions against Russia.

    ... that if sanctions against whom really hit, it is against German agricultural and industrial producers, who have lost access to the colossal Russian market. Most of all, politicians are worried that China is becoming more and more confident in the “vacated place”.

    Yes, neither one nor the other, nor the third ...
    What is this "economic situation in Europe", which forces to lift the sanctions .. ??? - What nonsense ...
    - Yes, everyone can sneeze on these sanctions, who really wants to sneeze on them ... - They can always be bypassed (overwhelmingly) if you wish ...
    - It's just that this old woman, Merkel, who has been sitting up at a high post, has a pathological, ill-concealed hostility (if not to say ... hatred) towards Russia ... And all these sanctions against Russia are her personal "great joy" .. .and she just "hides" them ... and uses ...
    Indeed, Germany today has much more reasons to be disgusted with Ukraine ... - And where is this disgust ??? - They will tolerate all this stench and also constantly help Dill ... financially and financially ...
    - But Merkel in general doesn’t want and cannot stand the spirit ... - And it’s visible to all of Germany ... -Sometimes even a “thought-guess” creeps in ... and not for this dislike of Russia Germany long endures at the head of himself this old grandmother .. ???
    - And today it suddenly seemed to the whole EEC that Trump had given a slack ... - here they are, these "EU" men and decided to lightly tease the supposedly decrepit American lion ... - Well, Germany was already here too ...- was simply forced to do "positive gesture" in relation to sanctions against Russia (Merkel, probably, at the same time she creaked with anger with her old jaws) ... -That's the thing ...
    - As for Macron ... then he has all these sanctions against Russia in general “on the drum” ... - today no “Mistral buildings” or other “military-technical orders” for Russia prevail over France ... -So France, by and large ... -all this is absolutely purple ...
    - As for China .., here, that there are sanctions against Russia; that there is no sanction against Russia ... for China, in getting everything he needs from Russia ... there is no difference ... Russia is always ready to provide China with everything that it requires ... - it will simply present everything on a silver platter ...
    1. Pishenkov Offline
      Pishenkov (Alexey) 21 October 2019 09: 37
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      ... everyone can sneeze on these sanctions, who really wants to sneeze on them ... - They can always be circumvented (if the majority), if you wish ...

      - this is not quite true, unfortunately, otherwise no one would bother with sanctions ... The Americas impose sanctions because they know that they can achieve their implementation. Firstly, it is problematic, first of all, for large European corporations, namely, billions of contracts there. Large tranches for major transactions are simply blocked by banks, because the European banks, in turn, are blocked by Americans. And major deals are tracked, even if they go through the gaskets - remember the Siemens turbine scandal in Crimea. Siemens was then heavily fined for it ... Secondly, in addition to the European sanctions themselves on the Russian Federation, they are beaten mainly by counter-sanctions. They would be happy to sell us something, but we don’t take it ... Something is around somewhere, like Belarusian salmon and jamon appear, but this is a tear in the macroeconomics ... this is not a stream of goods.
      The one who can sneeze on sanctions is the Americans themselves - they introduce them, but they do not suffer from it at all, and it is their companies that can bypass them, unlike the Europeans. Themselves in the United States filed an application, and they were given an exception for a one-time deal, and a one-time deal is, for example, developing a deposit in the north of the Russian Federation, but these are the same billions ... And we also didn’t stop delivering engines for missiles to them, nor titanium for the aviation industry, nothing, in short, sensitive for the States themselves has happened ...
    2. 123 Offline
      123 (123) 21 October 2019 12: 15
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      What is this "economic situation in Europe", which forces to lift the sanctions .. ??? - What nonsense ...

      For reference: According to the organization’s forecast, this year the Russian economy will grow by only 0,9%. This is the "pro-Kremlin RBC.

      https://www.rbc.ru/economics/19/09/2019/5d834b909a794730e3865199

      German GDP in 2019 will grow by 0,5 percent. This writes Deutsche Welle's The Shoutbox of Kremlin Propaganda.
      I didn’t read the comment further, I was too lazy to spend time on stupid things.