Why the USA cannot create an anti-Russian coalition in the Black Sea

In addition to the Baltic, the Black Sea basin is one of the most likely points of collision between Russia and NATO. Here, our country has serious unresolved problems with Georgia and Ukraine, which persistently knock on the door of the North Atlantic Alliance. However, according to the report of the American research center RAND, the Pentagon has not yet been able to create a unified anti-Russian coalition in the Black Sea.




This report was voiced in narrow circles last spring, but became public knowledge only the day before. The American research center notes that Russia has its own strategy in the region, which compares favorably with its neighbors:

Other states in the region have different and sometimes conflicting interests that they want to protect, which has made the development of a coordinated strategy of the West to solve various problems with Russia difficult.


Analysts at RAND, also called the “shadow CIA,” made a very interesting review of the balance of power among the Black Sea countries. We give it below summarized in the form of the main points.

At first, Russia, having returned Crimea, began to build up the capabilities of its Black Sea Fleet, as well as to strengthen the defense of the peninsula and the entire Southern Military District. Thus, leverage has increased on the situation in the neighboring Mediterranean Sea and the Middle East. At RAND, it is colorfully called "malicious influence and intimidation."

Secondly, among the NATO countries in the region there is no agreement and a single anti-Russian position. Romania is more interested in the takeover of Moldova and the situation in neighboring Ukraine with its Bukovina. Bulgaria is concerned about its southern direction, where the United States has serious problems with Turkey, as well as the flow of refugees from Syria, and the growing Islamic threat. Sofia was opposed to Bucharest’s proposal to expand the Alliance’s military presence in the Black Sea.

Secondly, the situation around Turkey, which has the second strongest army in NATO after the United States, stands apart. The tensions between Washington and Ankara reached such a stage that President Trump threatened to destroy Turkish the economy. It does not look like a united allied front. Interestingly, Turkey itself is interested in maintaining the military status quo in the region, which may indicate a lot.

Thirdly, there is no unity not only in Southeast, but also in Western Europe. The leading powers of the Old World - Germany, France and the UK - are more concerned about Brexit, migration problems and the crisis in the Middle East, they do not care much about the Black Sea. RAND analysts complain that in NATO, not everyone considers the Black Sea to be part of Europe, believing it to be simply a "neighboring region."

Fourthly, noted that confidence in the United States, which in Europe is no longer considered an automatic defender, is increasingly declining.

Finally, the American center indicates that the countries of the Black Sea basin are using mostly outdated military machinery Soviet models, which does not meet NATO standards.

What does the “shadow CIA” propose to do to counter Russia's malicious influence ”?

The answer is called strengthening the defense capabilities of Ukraine and Georgia, which should in case of what become “cannon fodder”. In Romania and Bulgaria, it is planned to strengthen air defense systems and coastal defense against the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Will these measures be enough to deter Russia in the event of a real clash?

Military experts believe not. Even if NATO can put together a naval force on the Black Sea, it will be shot through by the Russian coastal systems Bal, Bastion and self-propelled guns Bereg. In addition, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is able to quickly build up a significant group of aerospace forces, which will be able to act effectively together with the Black Sea Fleet.
Used photos: http://www.poletik.net/
Ctrl Enter

Noticed oshЫbku Highlight text and press. Ctrl + Enter

10 comments
Information

Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.
I have an account? Sign in

  1. Bulanov Offline
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 8 October 2019 14: 04
    +3
    • 5
    • 2
    Because the Crimea can completely cover all the countries of the Black Sea region with its missiles, and if anyone tries to attack the Crimea, he will automatically turn into radioactive ashes with the help of the Siberian "Topol". Fools turn to ashes have not yet been observed.
    1. Igor Pavlovich Offline
      Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 8 October 2019 17: 48
      0
      • 1
      • 1
      ... and we, as martyrs, will go to heaven ...

      V.V. Putin, Valdai, October 18, 2018
      1. Screw Offline
        Screw (Gennady) 9 October 2019 09: 30
        -1
        • 0
        • 1
        I do not like to look at a sinking ship, but getting a lionfish in it somehow raises the mood. (see the film about the exercises at the Pacific Fleet from 196 *). And you are all thinking about Paradise. And the old Argentine rifle over the English aircraft carrier in the Falklands does not cause any feelings? Will live....
  2. nbv Offline
    nbv 9 October 2019 09: 38
    -1
    • 1
    • 2
    Russia is concentrated in its complexes and cannot see the world except through the prism of the fact that someone wants to attack it. This is very annoying to the neighbors, and society needs a lot of time and resources to comply with Russian complexes and claims. Europe is focused on its internal problems, and the existential problems of Russia with its place in the world are not our priority. No one here wants a war with anyone, but for the sake of the Crimea, Transnistria and Georgia, we must take action. Russia behaves like a neighbor's gopnik, which provokes everyone around us, and we want or should not have weapons with us to protect ourselves. If it were not for the expansionist aspirations of Russia, the money we spend on weapons would go to other, much more useful projects.
    1. Bulanov Offline
      Bulanov (Vladimir) 9 October 2019 10: 38
      +1
      • 2
      • 1
      Europe has always tried to solve its internal problems at the expense of Russia and has survived 9 attacks since the time of A. Nevsky. Now comes the tenth. But the fact that the EU has deprived Russia of the Baltic states bought by Russia from Sweden, or Novorossia, recaptured by Suvorov from the Turks, is this not considered? And the capture of a UN member of the GDR - without any referendum, is that also nothing? And if this is a reunion, then Russia can reunite its former territories.
      1. Bulanov Offline
        Bulanov (Vladimir) 9 October 2019 10: 39
        0
        • 1
        • 1
        If someone did not understand, then Russia survived 9 attacks from Europe.
    2. Pishenkov Offline
      Pishenkov (Alexey) 9 October 2019 11: 54
      +1
      • 2
      • 1
      ... yes, the vile RF only does what creeps to NATO bases ... it does not allow poor Europe to focus on its internal problems. Either it makes you buy your gas, almost by force, then it imposes sanctions for no reason against poor Europeans, or it scares the peaceful ships of the US Navy, who for some reason have forgotten so far from their shores ..
      It would be good and calm for Europeans,

      If not for the expansionist aspirations of Russia.

      You, as I understand it, live in Europe, judging by how you identify with it, but maybe you have some other Europe? Not the one to the west of the Russian borders, to the left, that is, on the map? Because in the one that is there, the US arms and troops are only arriving, since 1991, NATO has expanded eastward, and the Russian troops, from the same 1991, that is, long before what could theoretically be called "expansion", all this time they just did what they left from there ...

      No one here wants a war with anyone, but for the sake of the Crimea, Transnistria and Georgia, we must take action

      - Well, if nobody there wants to war with anyone, then let them not go anywhere, but

      focused on her inner problems

      And the Crimeans, Transnistrians and Georgians without the French, Germans, Swedes, English, etc. will deal with Crimea, Transnistria and Georgia. If you know the history well, then the attempts of some European states to keep order where they were not called, always ended disastrously for Europeans.
  3. Port Offline
    Port 9 October 2019 09: 39
    0
    • 1
    • 1
    The madmen who died for the cowardly hegemordor moved to die, although some of the former siblings might want to.
  4. Sergey Latyshev Offline
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 9 October 2019 09: 58
    0
    • 0
    • 0
    They couldn’t do that before. Little idiots - let the fox into the chicken coop.

    Turkey, for example, even during the cargo. the conflict didn’t let anyone in (local terrorists and smugglers do not count). The rest is a trifle.

    The USA and others, too, do not send anything large there ... What the hell, if the World Cup is shot right through from any coast.
  5. gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) 9 October 2019 15: 47
    +1
    • 1
    • 0
    Why the USA cannot create an anti-Russian coalition in the Black Sea

    Yes, there is such a coalition ... - there are as many of them ...
    - But Russia failed to create an “anti” or at least weak “pro-Russian coalition” not only in the Black Sea, but in all other seas and parts of the world ....
    - Well, and on the Black Sea .., perhaps, Russia even has it at all ... - there are only enemies around ...