NWF in the hands of the liberals: what will happen to the "people's money"

Next year, the government will be able to print the "small egg" of the National Welfare Fund. According to the explanatory note to the draft budget for the next three years, in 2020 the NWF will amount to 11,06 trillion rubles, in 2021 - 13,66, and in 2022 - all 16,196 trillion. The money is huge, and it could give an impetus to the development of our country. However, some experts believe that the NWF for the Russian economics - a cut chunk. What gives them reason for such pessimism?




The NWF arose in 2008 "on the wreckage" of the Stabilization Fund. In fact, this is the state "airbag", managed by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and partially the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The main source of its replenishment is the oil and gas revenues of the federal budget. According to the so-called “Kudrin’s scissors”, excess profits from the sale of oil at a price exceeding $ 40,5 per barrel are stored in this “little bottle”. According to the established rules, you can use this money only after reaching the liquid part of the fund 7% of the country's GDP.

By itself, the idea of ​​having a "stash for a rainy day" seems quite robust, given the difficult situation in the Russian and global economies. But money should work, and it is advisable not to "be on someone else's uncle." A country that has come under ever-increasing Western sanctions objectively needs full-blown, rather than targeted, import substitution and consistent systemic reindustrialization in order to regain full sovereignty.

But earlier announced plans for the use of the NWF set different priorities. There are three main areas: investing in foreign assets with high returns, financing export loans for foreign buyers and “something there”, rather slurred about domestic investment projects. It is stated that options can be combined, but the share of domestic investment should be small so as not to interfere with the CBR’s “heroic fight” against inflation.

However, there are loopholes here that allow us not to bring money to the national economy, explains Andrey Bunich, chairman of the Union of Entrepreneurs and Tenants:

We were previously told that as soon as 7% of GDP accumulate in the fund, we will gradually invest petrodollars in our own economy. But as soon as this moment began to approach, it turned out that the money from the fund would still be invested as before. That there will be the same international borrowers, or Western "highly reliable" corporations, or interstate loans directed outside.


The trick mechanism is quite simple. The draft three-year budget is based on the assumption that the volume of the NWF will continue to grow. But what if oil prices go down? What if budget expenditures suddenly increase, for example, for all kinds of compensations to our "suffering" oil workers? The result will be a reduction in the liquid part of the fund to below 7% of GDP. This means that the attraction of unprecedented generosity will end, and the "little egg" will have to be replenished again.

Someone is lucky. These are those who will be the first to receive investments from the reserve fund. But what will it be, highly profitable foreign assets or domestic Russian projects? We will see.
Photos used: https://kiozk.ru
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  1. Bulanov Online
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 2 October 2019 13: 32
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    Recently, TV presenter Vladimir Soloviev said in his telecast that the national idea of ​​Russia is the prosperity of Russia. This means that officials whose families and money are outside Russia are opposed to the national idea of ​​Russia and against Russia. Money should be allocated for the production in Russia of goods critical for the people purchased abroad. It's time to figure out who is interfering with Russia's prosperity.
    1. Victor N Offline
      Victor N (Victor n) 2 October 2019 14: 41
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      First you need to understand what these "goods critical for the people" are? I won’t know what it is.
      1. Digital error Offline
        Digital error (Eugene) 3 October 2019 22: 12
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        Quote: Victor N
        ... you need to figure out what these "goods critical for the people" are.

        The first thing that comes to mind is electronics. Computers, IT peripherals, smartphones, chips, etc. An ordinary router - and that one contains a 400 MHz processor and Linux firmware. For all this, we need an elemental base, for the creation of which we need industry to cure rare earths from mineral raw materials. All this is not fast and expensive (and will worry competitors - the very "highly reliable" ones, which are discussed in the article).
  2. Victor N Offline
    Victor N (Victor n) 2 October 2019 14: 52
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    Today, the problem is not to produce something, but to sell. What is sent for export - we know, we can not offer anything else - we could not create. We could not create - there were not enough abilities.
    But somewhere in society there are capable people-entrepreneurs, why didn’t they create anything ?! Maybe because the society as soon as they do not call names, what only does not threaten ?!
    As a result: the NWF is full of money, but there are no people wishing to receive them for real projects, and there is no list of projects. There are only many who want to devour everything.
    1. Digital error Offline
      Digital error (Eugene) 3 October 2019 22: 22
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      Quote: Victor N
      We could not create - there were not enough abilities.

      Not abilities, but political will. Why create something if you can buy it for petrodollars? Our compradors protect the peace of our competing partners. Only sanctions forced them to declare import substitution after the Soviet educational system was destroyed, which gave the world brilliant engineers, now working in the "Silicon Valley".

      Quote: Victor N
      ... why didn’t they create anything ?!

      And you try to create a new product in the conditions of the existing monopolies and constantly changing tax legislation - if it succeeds, they will offer to share it, but they can also throw drugs for refusal. IT-people who have left the country are proof of this.
  3. kriten Offline
    kriten (Vladimir) 2 October 2019 17: 42
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    You can rest assured: they’ll divide it right: they’ll take Chubais to the consultants .....
  4. Sapsan136 Offline
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 2 October 2019 20: 17
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    Where Chubais and the company, everything is stolen and multiplied by zero.
  5. Marzhecki Online
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 3 October 2019 09: 53
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    Quote: Victor N
    First you need to understand what these "goods critical for the people" are? I won’t know what it is.

    Essentials?
    1. Victor N Offline
      Victor N (Victor n) 3 October 2019 17: 40
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      There are plenty of goods of both first and third necessity. Moreover - pay attention to what assortment of cat food is offered by paying huge money for advertising! People grab the latest smartphones, as if they can make money on them. And all this while groaning from poverty. Ugh!
  6. Sergey Latyshev Offline
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 3 October 2019 09: 56
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    Putin has long explained everything in an interview - the money will be over the hill, because here they are plundered.

    Whether to consider Putin the head of the liberals is up to everyone to decide.
    1. Digital error Offline
      Digital error (Eugene) 3 October 2019 22: 25
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      Quote: Sergey Latyshev
      ... for everyone to decide ...

      Sands with this issue has long been decided.
  7. Marzhecki Online
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 3 October 2019 09: 56
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    Quote: Victor N
    What is sent for export - we know, we can not offer anything else - we could not create. We could not create - there were not enough abilities.

    It is not true. For example, we had our own Tu-334, ready, instead of it we were imposed dead-end projects like the "Superjet", There is a finished Tu-214, MS-21 is pushing force instead, etc.
    This is a substitution.
    1. Victor N Offline
      Victor N (Victor n) 3 October 2019 17: 49
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      Aviation is a very specific area - not special. But sales did not even go inside the country: were there no sales specialists? They must be sought, surrounded by love and care. Chubais at a good distance can offend anyone. And you try to sell potatoes to Lukashenko - then a hero! Honor and popular respect.