Refusal of a military base: is Belarus really our ally?

Belarus again proved itself to be an “ally without obligations” in relation to Russia, having repeatedly refused to host the air base of the Russian Defense Ministry. For Moscow, another “fortel” of Minsk for some reason turned out to be an “unpleasant surprise”. How realistically can our country be able to count on the help of the “Belarusian brothers” in difficult times?




Recall that for more than a decade, Russia and Belarus have been part of the Union State. There are agreements on joint protection of the external borders of this supranational entity and on the creation of a unified air defense system. They also envisaged an agreement on the opening in the Republic of Belarus of an air base of the Russian Air Force. Near Bobruisk, it was planned to deploy three air regiments: fighters, fighter-bombers and front-line bombers. Also for their protection could appear air defense systems S-400.

This air base was to be a joint response of Moscow and Minsk to the strengthening of NATO's military presence near Kaliningrad and the Belarusian borders. After Warsaw’s announced plans to deploy an American tank division in Poland, President Lukashenko stated the following:

We are not going to fight. Therefore, do not create extra bases. Otherwise, the Russians and I will have to answer. So, we will be forced to post something to counteract you.


But then the militancy of the Belarusian leader somewhere evaporated. For the first time, Alexander Grigorievich torpedoed this project on the eve of his previous elections in 2015, trying to demonstrate his “neutrality” to the West. There were no special obstacles to his re-election. Once again, the Russian air base Paul Bobruisk is covered with a copper basin on the eve of the next presidential election, which will take place next year, 2020.

However, everything cannot be attributed to the “multi-vector” nature of Minsk alone. There are two fundamental issues that need to be addressed.

At first, the notorious integration within the Union State. Minsk persistently wants to receive bonuses as an ally of Moscow, but does not have any specific obligations to it. The “tax maneuver”, taking the Belarusian oil industry by the throat, is called upon to exert pressure on President Lukashenko so that real steps to unite the two fraternal states are nevertheless taken. In this context, the position on the military base can be used by Minsk as a subject of bargaining on oil issues.

Secondly, big questions to our Belarusian friends arise in the military sphere. The Russian Air Force airbase near Bobruisk should be a response to the strengthening of NATO's positions around Kaliningrad. Like us previously told, a clash with the alliance, if it happens, will begin with an attempt to block and seize this very western region of ours, which has no land connection with other Russian territory.

It is believed that the Russian Defense Ministry will have to make its way to Kaliningrad through the so-called “Suvalk corridor”. But for this, the Russian army will have to enter the territory of Belarus and use it as a bridgehead. Accordingly, it will be attacked by the Alliance.

A logical question arises: if President Lukashenko is not even ready to deploy one air base of the Russian Air Force so as not to quarrel with Western neighbors, will he not send Russia with its problems to the “bathhouse” at the most crucial moment, citing the need to ensure the safety of its own state? And what kind of “Suvalki corridor” then can one speak with such “allies” at all?

I don’t want to think about the most negative scenarios, but, unfortunately, I have to. The author of the lines sincerely wishes to be mistaken in his doubts.
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  1. Afinogen Offline
    Afinogen (Afinogen) 28 September 2019 13: 30
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    Lukashenko wants to receive from Russia only. Give it, give it. Now all the "sanction" from Europe goes through Belarus to Russia. We are fighting sanctioned with Europe, and Lukashenko considers profit. He never supported us in anything, but he always shouts loudly that we are allies, and always says “give something else.” Tantrums, if Russia does not give him something, then he immediately begins to “sing” about unification with us, having received his own, forgets everything, calms down and looks towards the West.
    1. Savigne Offline
      Savigne 30 September 2019 21: 03
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      Quote: Athenogen
      We are fighting sanctioned with Europe ...

      The battle of the elephant and the Pug will end naturally.
      1. Victor N Offline
        Victor N (Victor n) 1 October 2019 16: 21
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        Are you for the pug?
        1. The comment was deleted.
  2. AICO Offline
    AICO (Vyacheslav) 28 September 2019 15: 41
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    With such brothers and Hitler is not needed !!!
  3. Sapsan136 Offline
    Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 28 September 2019 15: 41
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    Even Russian emperors said that Russia has only two loyal allies - the Russian army and the Russian fleet ... It is time to stop feeding all these independent princes, such as Yanukovich and Lukashenko, at the expense of the Russian Federation ... They look at Russia exclusively as consumers and there’s no use for them from the Russian Federation, and, of course, they won’t fight for the interests of the Russian Federation, but they will certainly call for the interests of the Russian Federation to fight ... AND IT IS NECESSARY FOR US, AT SUCH FACING ?!
    1. sgrabik Offline
      sgrabik (Sergei) 29 September 2019 12: 00
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      Yanukovych has already jumped, trying to sit on two chairs at once simultaneously, now Lukashenko can also jump with the same success, repeating the fate of Yanukovych.
      1. Pishenkov Online
        Pishenkov (Alexey) 30 September 2019 10: 25
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        ... Lukashenko can also jump by repeating the fate of Yanukovych.

        Well, that's weird. This time it will only be necessary to prepare better and hold a referendum immediately and throughout Belarus .. And then immediately there will be our bases, and everything else ... also ours ... wink The people there are mostly right, smart. There are practically no banderlogs ... That's all ... Everything is in your native harbor!
      2. Savigne Offline
        Savigne 30 September 2019 21: 10
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        Quote: sgrabik
        ... now Lukashenko may jump with the same success.

        Lukashenko conducts a fully conscious LINE. And from the point of view of the development of society and the state, it does everything very logically.
        Belarusians were lucky. Lukashenko today - their oil, gas, forest, etc.
        But if it arrives in one place, then it decreases in another. In which, someone guesses?
        1. Victor N Offline
          Victor N (Victor n) 1 October 2019 16: 31
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          His line to society has nothing to do, these are glitches. His interest is to remove his imperious rent from the entire population, with the help of the state. It ripens for a long time, and time not only passes, but also passes. Broken trough is very sad ....
          1. Savigne Offline
            Savigne 1 October 2019 16: 51
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            Quote: Victor N
            His line to society has nothing to do, these are glitches.

            He is society. Belorussian.
            The state is me. This is about him.

            Quote: Victor N
            It ripens for a long time, and time not only passes, but also passes. Broken trough is very sad ....

            He will definitely not have a broken trough. Somehow get out of any mess.
            But Belarusian society under its power is developing (evolving). And this is a very cool bonus for this society.
    2. Savigne Offline
      Savigne 30 September 2019 21: 05
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      Quote: Sapsan136
      Even Russian emperors said that Russia has only two faithful allies - it is the Russian army and the Russian fleet ...

      Moreover, they NEVER had either an army or a navy.

      1. The comment was deleted.
  4. Port Offline
    Port 28 September 2019 16: 11
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    Intuition suggests that a real threat of intervention is created for Kaliningrad, the hegemordor organizes exercises after exercises and concentrates troops, after the next exercises they become more and more, and Luka wets his pants at the mere mention of the Russian base, he feels that the NATO members are not just hanging out there , but whatever one may say, there are no chances to sit out, in any case he will fall under the batch.
    1. Pishenkov Online
      Pishenkov (Alexey) 30 September 2019 10: 31
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      Well, but seriously - well, what kind of "intervention in Kaliningrad"? This means the beginning of a nuclear war with the Russian Federation. There, "kneading" everyone will fall, wherever they are ...
      1. Victor N Offline
        Victor N (Victor n) 1 October 2019 16: 36
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        Well, and the logic: in the presence of an atomic bomb, the Russian Guard is not needed ?! And the police?
        1. Pishenkov Online
          Pishenkov (Alexey) 1 October 2019 18: 09
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          And what does the Rosguard and the police have to do with it, when it came to the intervention of NATO troops on the territory of the Russian Federation?
  5. Tolik_74 Offline
    Tolik_74 (Anatoly) 28 September 2019 17: 06
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    The American idiots beckoned Lukashenko to the carrot, and he was seduced as a first grader. Oil and cheap gas have been begging for 25 years. GDP, how much will you listen to the tales of this Shklov impostor ??
  6. gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) 28 September 2019 17: 29
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    - Yes, practically this air base near Bobruisk (or somewhere else) is not so necessary as the "essence" (as a base) ... - Bobruisk itself is located near the Russian border; and from Lithuanian and Polish ... - much further ...
    - So there isn’t much difference ... - where will this Russian air base be located ... - on the territory of Russia or Belarus ...
    The whole "fuss", most likely, arose out of fear ... - as if Lukashenko, having bit a bit, would not have filed a "petition to NATO" ...
    - He may have enough mind for that ...
    - What happened next???
    - And then everything will be much worse for Russia ... - Belarus has no obstacles to NATO membership .... - And it can be accepted very quickly ... - in connection with the “threat to Russia” (or something else come up with) ...
    - Trump gets a "carte blanche" for the second term of his presidency ... - And the Democrats just shut up ...
    But greedy Lukashenko needs bonuses for the future; and Trump levied all NATO members "protection taxes" ... - $ 2 billion ... - from each ... - But Belarus can be given "loans", after which it is firmly trapped in an eternal trap ... and forever breaks away Russia ... - But this is a completely different story ...
    - Such things ... - Alas ...
    1. gorenina91 Offline
      gorenina91 (Irina) 28 September 2019 17: 46
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      - And “substantial loans” can be provided to Belarus even for only one exit from the CSTO fake treaty; where, in fact, only the army of Belarus represents significant power and real support for Russia (all other members of the CSTO are just an empty place for which Russia pays a lot) ... - Therefore, Americans can easily fork out for this ... - Alas ...
      1. Sapsan136 Offline
        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 28 September 2019 23: 15
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        The US is not the Russian Federation, there will not be freebies ...
      2. General Black Online
        General Black (Gennady) 29 September 2019 00: 41
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        Quote: gorenina91
        ... only the army of Belarus represents significant power and real support for Russia.

        What real combat experience does the Belarusian army have at the moment? Participation in exercises is not accepted. Parades, by the way, too. They are considered powerful because But father said so? And why are there no Belarusian officers, say, in Syria, there are no gunners there, there are no pilots, the same sappers, tankers? They don’t need real combat training? Are they all masters of warfare? Any army learns to fight in a war. Russia is also studying while there is time. In 4 years, 68 of our soldiers and officers passed through Syria. Or take, for example, a member of the CSTO "empty space" - Armenia. After all, they sent sappers and doctors there - they sent them. Doctors there receive invaluable experience of treatment in the field, sappers cleared 000 thousand square meters from February to May. kilometers of territory. Where is our main ally? But father didn’t let him go, because he’s a “bagathevector”. But as soon as it smelled of the restoration of Syria, But father is right there. Restores so please. For the money of Syria and under the protection of Russia. "Nybaskroby" build, just pay. So, I think, as a military ally, Belarus, to put it mildly, is rather weak. And therefore, if the time comes militarily difficult, But father will not ask about anything.
        1. Savigne Offline
          Savigne 30 September 2019 21: 19
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          Quote: General Black
          They don’t need real combat training?

          And then what, can you get "real combat training"?

          Quote: General Black
          Any army learns to fight in a war.

          Exactly. At war. But only on the present. Minor local conflicts do not count.

          Quote: General Black
          For the money of Syria ...

          Tell me where she will get them?
          1. General Black Online
            General Black (Gennady) 1 October 2019 16: 00
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            Tell me where she will get them?

            Well, you, Mr. Good, take care of yourself.
            1. Savigne Offline
              Savigne 1 October 2019 16: 47
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              Quote: General Black
              You, Mr. Good, take care of yourself.

              I'm trying. It is interesting to see how it all ends. My forecasts will come true or not.
              1. General Black Online
                General Black (Gennady) 1 October 2019 17: 46
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                It is interesting to see how it all ends.

                Nothing good will end for you. Such is yours, limitrophy, fate miserable.
                1. Savigne Offline
                  Savigne 1 October 2019 18: 37
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                  Quote: General Black
                  Nothing good will end for you.

                  And for some reason I’m not afraid.

                  Quote: General Black
                  Such is yours, limitrophy, fate miserable.

                  You take a closer look at yourself. Have you eaten humanitarian aid for a long time?
                  1. General Black Online
                    General Black (Gennady) 1 October 2019 18: 41
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                    I already told you once, do not poke at strangers. And do not be rude.
          2. The comment was deleted.
            1. The comment was deleted.
    2. fantom63 Offline
      fantom63 (Ruslan) 28 September 2019 19: 26
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      As soon as the Old Man wants to the left, he will be instantly cut off from all sorts of oil nishtyaks and no loans will help, and Milosevic will take a great chance to take his place.
      Muddy type, ungrateful.
      1. Savigne Offline
        Savigne 30 September 2019 21: 19
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        Quote: fantom63
        ... and Milosevic’s place is a great chance.

        There is nothing to do with Milosevic.
    3. Sapsan136 Offline
      Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 28 September 2019 23: 14
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      There is only one problem. Not everyone in Belarus is Ukrainians, like Lukashenko, following in the footsteps of Yanukovych ... He won’t get wiser, everything will end like in Ukraine .... Lukashenko doesn’t need Red-and-white Natsiks, but betraying the Russian Federation, will he be needed in the Russian Federation ?! No matter how Sasha plays out to Saddamushka's gallows, who also tried to make friends with the Yankees ...
      1. Savigne Offline
        Savigne 30 September 2019 21: 23
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        Quote: Sapsan136
        ... everything will end, as in Ukraine.

        And even necessarily end. Any feudal regime, sooner or later, ends with a bourgeois revolution. This is called the "evolutionary development of society and the state."
        Only it’s not at all necessary what will end precisely under THIS Lukashenko.

        Quote: Sapsan136
        As if Sasha did not finish the game to Saddamushka's gallows.

        For what?
        1. Sapsan136 Offline
          Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 1 October 2019 00: 31
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          In Ukraine, there is not a bourgeois revolution, there is a Nazi revolution and a civil war on a national basis ... This also awaits the Republic of Belarus, since the Russian East is definitely not on the way with the red-white Western Natsiks ... before whom Lukashenko flirts just as he flirted in front of Bandera Yanukovych ... and played out ... Played out and Sashok ...
          1. Savigne Offline
            Savigne 1 October 2019 01: 22
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            Quote: Sapsan136
            Ukraine is not a bourgeois revolution, there is a Nazi revolution.

            You save all nonsense for internal use.
            Sometimes it's better to chew than talk.

            Quote: Sapsan136
            ... the Russian East is certainly not on the way with the red-white Western Natsiks ... before whom Lukashenko flirts.

            Where does something Russian come from in Belarus, if there is not much of it in Russia?
            Everything is approximately the same as in Ukraine (but there are also differences). A more developed society in the former lands of Poland. Where Belarusians and Ukrainians, as we know from Soviet fables, were mercilessly oppressed. And a less developed society in the eastern regions, greatly affected by "socialism". Where Belarusians and Ukrainians, again, according to Soviet mythology, flourished.

            Quote: Sapsan136
            Finish and Sasha ...

            Lukashenko (this one) will not suffer at all. West Belarus, this is not entirely Zap. Ukraine.
            1. Sapsan136 Offline
              Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 1 October 2019 01: 39
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              In the former lands of Poland there are backward, sick of nationalism, uneducated villagers ... This Lukashenko will be hanged by people like you, at the behest of the United States, because in the Russian Federation it may not be accepted after your nationalist revolution, and I’ll civil war with the East just guarantee.
              1. Savigne Offline
                Savigne 1 October 2019 11: 13
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                Quote: Sapsan136
                In the former lands of Poland there are backward, sick nationalism, uneducated villagers ...

                You do not know general science. These villagers are much more advanced in terms of social development (they are at a higher stage of development) than the bulk of the eastern "townspeople".
                It was only in the USSR that the factory drunk was considered the ideal and crown of development.
                Further, some completely not interesting nonsense is written.
                1. Sapsan136 Offline
                  Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 1 October 2019 17: 23
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                  To work at the factory, you needed a lot more intelligence than to clean pigsties and drink moonshine in your native village ... remember this and do not make anyone laugh here.
                  1. Savigne Offline
                    Savigne 1 October 2019 18: 38
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                    Quote: Sapsan136
                    To work at the factory, you needed a lot more mind than to clean pigsties and drink moonshine in your native village ...

                    This is to work. And in order to go to the factory and "drive the marriage" out there, it did not take much for this mind.
                    1. Sapsan136 Offline
                      Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 1 October 2019 19: 46
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                      Those who persecuted the marriage were not paid anything there, but they were deducted from their salaries for the marriage, so they never kept drunks of worthless people in factories, but they successfully worked as sewage pumps on their collective farm, not drying out from drunkenness.
                      1. Savigne Offline
                        Savigne 1 October 2019 20: 09
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                        Quote: Sapsan136
                        Those who persecuted the marriage were not paid anything there, but they kept the salary for the marriage.

                        Even as they paid. Moreover, only a little less than a good worker. Therefore, working well in the USSR was unprofitable.

                      2. Sapsan136 Offline
                        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 1 October 2019 20: 13
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                        You don’t tell me ... unlike you, I have a technical education and I worked at the factory for 3 and a half years ... the drunks there were simply fired under article 33 ... and the salaries are very different, depending on experience .. for which they give a professional rank ... it was impossible to dismiss from the barn of a drunkard on your collective farm, because the whole district was the same ...
                      3. The comment was deleted.
                      4. Sapsan136 Offline
                        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 1 October 2019 20: 26
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                        No ... I’m an engineer ... then the war started ... they handed me the shoulder straps ... as a person with higher education ... after 6 months of training, and as a platoon commander in the Caucasus.
                      5. Savigne Offline
                        Savigne 1 October 2019 22: 14
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                        Quote: Sapsan136
                        ... then the war began ... they handed me the officer shoulder straps ... as a person with higher education ... after 6 months of training and the platoon commander in the Caucasus.

                        Was there a war in the Caucasus? When? During 2MB?
                      6. Sapsan136 Offline
                        Sapsan136 (Sapsan136) 2 October 2019 20: 02
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                        In 2000 ... The village of Komsomolsk ... Dagestan
  • gorenina91 Offline
    gorenina91 (Irina) 29 September 2019 09: 54
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    - I read the comments and decided to add about Belarus ...
    - For those who do not understand something, but make an effort to understand ... - personally, I will try to explain again ...
    - Of all the CSTO members, only Belarus (along with Russia) has a real full-fledged land army ... - This army is well-armed and equipped and has all military branches that meet modern requirements ... - motorized infantry; tank troops, artillery and missile forces; Airborne Forces; aviation, etc ...
    - All the youth of Belarus are called up and serve 1,5 years ...
    - The officers are trained professionally in military schools ... and military departments ...
    The army of Belarus ... is a real real modern army .. capable of conducting independent hostilities ...
    Moreover ... - Belarus has its own solid engineering and technical foundation ... and itself produces many modern types of weapons ...
    - These are not the “Bakhtiyar” members of the CSTO, who are of little use in the army, and even fight on their own ... - they will immediately run away from a serious enemy ... some are in the mountains, some are in the steppe, others are where and etc ...
    - Then someone mentioned Syria ... - Yes, the Belarusian contingent is not present and does not participate in hostilities there ...
    - But if you compare the rank and file of the Russian and Belarusian armies (its training), then ... then ... then ... then there is ... it is unlikely that this comparison will be in favor of the Russian army ... - Yes, and Belarusian youth much healthier and stronger than the "pets" of our Russian cities, which are easily driven by immigrants from the Caucasus and market traders (immigrants from Middle Asia) ... - Alas ...
    1. Victor N Offline
      Victor N (Victor n) 29 September 2019 10: 41
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      It would be naive ... But if so: what good is it? The Belarusian power elite is taking off its rent, the people have been deceived for so long that they have lost the opportunity to soberly assess their situation.
      What can be done? Not to help Lukashenko solve his economic problems - let him import oil even from Antarctica, since he has not mastered economic geography. Cover your market from his goods (done). Debt ruthlessly claim! People are constantly reminded that we are of the same blood, and the authorities are of another. We must actively support their normal information resources - there are such.
      And, MOST IMPORTANT, you need to communicate less with Lukashenko and his company: let them sit in the reception week for another, and then five minutes to show respect. All requests - only in writing, in ten copies, through the office. Do not let go to resorts - only to Crimea.
      What you can do personally from this - do not delay, time passes.
      1. gorenina91 Offline
        gorenina91 (Irina) 29 September 2019 12: 09
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        - Naive .. ???
        - Yes, it’s naive to Lukashenko (personally, I’m far from his side) to “keep in the reception room” and at the same time with “open-minded” to accept the dear “guest and brother” ... Erdogan ... - give him irrevocable loans; to build nuclear power plants for free and supply modern, expensive weapons that he will never pay for ... - Yes, and constantly and obsequiously to bear and endure from him such nasty things and blows that at all times required serious explanations and substantial compensation; and were even a good reason for declaring war ...
        - Yes, it is high time for Russia to officially declare a public service mission ... in Yalta ...
        - And there you will meet Erdogan, and Israeli and Chinese representatives (who just often went to Russia), and all the other "suffering meetings with Russia" at the official level ...
      2. Savigne Offline
        Savigne 30 September 2019 22: 05
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        Quote: Victor N
        The Belarusian power elite is renting.

        And which one doesn’t shoot and didn’t shoot?

        ... the people have been deceived for so long that they have lost the opportunity to soberly assess their position.

        Just Belarusians seem to assess their position quite adequately.

        Quote: Victor N
        Debt ruthlessly claim!

        Yeah. And also they can be claimed from Cuba, Vietnam, Ukraine and further everywhere. And everywhere ruthlessly.
        Not everyone can ask for a debt repayment either. To do this, you must meet certain requirements.

        Quote: Victor N
        People are constantly reminded that we are of the same blood, and the authorities are of another.

        Is it like that? Rave?

        Quote: Victor N
        Do not let go to resorts - only to Crimea.

        Why so cruel?
    2. Savigne Offline
      Savigne 30 September 2019 21: 29
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      Quote: gorenina91
      only Belarus (along with Russia) has a real full-fledged army ...

      Did you inspect both of these armies yourself? Or why did you suddenly decide that these armies are full-fledged?

      Quote: gorenina91
      This army is well armed and equipped, and has all the military branches that meet modern requirements ... - motorized infantry; tank troops, artillery and missile forces; Airborne Forces; aviation, etc ..

      And why is she suddenly so "well armed and equipped"?
      Perhaps the Russian army is "well armed and equipped"?

      Quote: gorenina91
      All the youth of Belarus are called up and serve 1,5 years ...

      This factor does not affect the combat efficiency of the army at all. Money thrown away.

      Quote: gorenina91
      ... trained professionally in military schools ... and military departments ...

      But who (and how) prepares them there "in vocational schools"? What are the lights of military affairs?

      Quote: gorenina91
      The army of Belarus ... is a real real modern army .. capable of conducting independent hostilities ...

      Freshly a tradition. I knew one such army in 1941. It was destroyed almost instantly.

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  • Vladimir Khrebtov (Vladimir Khrebtov) 30 September 2019 09: 57
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    In the event of war, no one will ask Luka, they will simply warn. There is no time for fortune telling a friend or foe. He won’t even pickn up.
  • Savigne Offline
    Savigne 30 September 2019 21: 01
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    ... is Belarus an ally to us?

    Poor allies do not exist.