Three options: how Belarus can end Russian oil

President Alexander Lukashenko reiterated his readiness, if necessary, to abandon Russian oil in favor of other suppliers, in particular the United States. Belarus already has experience in buying Azerbaijani, Kazakh and Venezuelan oil, which was not very successful, so optimists reassure that "Old Man is just scary." However, pessimists believe that this time Minsk’s threats should be taken very seriously. Why should Moscow "strain"?




If you look only economic side of the question, then the matter seems as simple as two fingers. In 2024, its “Dolce Vita” should end for Belarus. As an “ally without obligations”, Minsk had a lot of preferences within the Union State, for example, it received Russian raw materials for its refineries at a great discount. The Belarusian budget was fairly replenished through the sale of petroleum products and the transit of oil itself to Europe.

But now everything has changed. Alexander Grigoryevich stated with obvious irritation:

The tax maneuver threw us. That is, they introduced a mineral extraction tax (MET) on oil. Customs duty, it seems, is not in trade, but they introduced a tax, and oil went up.


So Belarus begins to lose its preferences, and hydrocarbon prices for it become market prices. To his surprise, this time the Belarusian leader was not able to solve the issue with Moscow “on the fly”. The reasons for this are discussed below.

A small but proud Belarus prepared the Kremlin for its “otvetku”. Minsk basically stated that they would buy oil at market prices from other suppliers, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates and the United States of America. There is only one problem: the Republic of Belarus does not have its own access to the sea in order to receive fuel by tankers. Therefore, three alternative routes to Russia are named.

Ukraine


Belarus can receive oil through a pipeline from Odessa, or by rail. In Minsk, they proposed in return to provide Kiev with oil products, the deficit of which is now experiencing Independent. Sounds good, but there are important nuances. The final cost of raw materials will have to include not only its delivery by tankers to the port, but also transshipment with subsequent pumping, which will also not be free.

Belarus purchased oil from Venezuela in this way, and as a result it turned out very, very expensive. In addition, the Odessa-Brody pipeline itself is not capable of pumping enough hydrocarbons in its capacity to completely replace Russian supplies.

Baltic


Latvia and Lithuania will be happy to seize the opportunity to compensate for the lost Russian exports and start working in the reverse mode for Belarus. But the problem also lies in the insufficient capacity of their railway network. No tanks are enough to completely replace Russian oil. That is, the Baltic States alone cannot replace our export.

Poland


President Lukashenko threatens to fill two of the four strings of the Druzhba pipeline with oil, which will be pumped from Europe in reverse. The geopolitical risks for the Kremlin are very high here, since Warsaw today is a conductor policy The United States is in the EU, and Washington will clearly lobby for the transfer of Belarus to American oil. But there are weaknesses. The Polish port of Gdansk is currently not able to handle a sufficient amount of raw materials for the needs of Belarus. Also, the pipeline will have to be modernized to work in reverse mode, which will require investment. Do not forget that Minsk will have to pay Warsaw for pumping oil. In addition, the Belarusian budget in this case will lose transit payments, which Moscow pays for delivery to Europe under the "Friendship".

If you count with a calculator, it turns out to be disadvantageous, but quite feasible with a great desire. And here we return to the political component of the issue. It is no secret that the “tax maneuver” is part of a strategy to force Minsk to real integration in the format of the Union State. President Lukashenko demonstrates a clear unwillingness to take this step, since this means the loss of part of the country's sovereignty.

It turns out that if the Kremlin "goes too far", then Minsk can fundamentally go for getting rid of economic dependence on Moscow under the applause of Washington and Europe. How this happens, even to the detriment of oneself, can be seen on the example of Ukraine.
Photos used: https://gazeta.ru/
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  1. Igor Pavlovich Offline
    Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 27 September 2019 12: 59
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    In such articles, I absolutely do not understand the author’s logic - when you go to the bazaar, you buy the same fruits — you buy vegetables from different sellers, who would you prefer? The one who sells for the ruble, or the one for two? What does the derogatory sarcasm “Small, but proud Belarus ...” have to do with it? And why, in that case, should Moscow "strain"? The bazaar, it is also a bazaar in Africa - raised the price, buyers ran to another. He beat and drove out competitors, established a monopoly - get ready that the strongest will come from the offended and arrange such a showdown that you will sit with “flashlights” and, wiping your snot, ask everyone - but for what ???
    1. Victor N Offline
      Victor N (Victor n) 28 September 2019 14: 52
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      It’s ridiculous and ridiculous, although you don’t understand: there’s nowhere to run and no reason to run!
      It’s enough to understand that we are ONE blood. Yes, once a demon beguiled politicians. And now it drives them. But the PEOPLE must remember the voice of blood - WE are one people worthy of a common territory, and of the same goals and joys. Russia has enough resources, and that’s why it lives. The Russians are kind, and the Orthodox God is merciful - to forgive everything and live in one world. The income from separation is received ONLY by politicians, because of this the people suffer only losses. Yes, even with a margin on the need to maintain a separate state apparatus.
      You go out of the village, take a look at the world - it is much easier than Taldychat.
      You can go somewhere out of harm (like in children) - but this is a rash decision.
      And - pay attention - the offer is still valid. Yes - an honor would be offered ......
    2. 123 Offline
      123 (123) 30 September 2019 00: 55
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      When you go to the bazaar, you buy the same fruits - you buy vegetables from different sellers, who would you prefer? The one who sells for the ruble, or the one for two?

      What does it mean - lifted up prices? stop

      So, Belarus begins to lose its preferences, and prices for hydrocarbons for it become market ones.

      It’s just that you now began to sell at the ruble, like everyone else, and not like before - at 50 kopecks. Now the prices on the market have leveled off, everyone has a ruble. And he is going to buy from anyone, but not from you. Strange, the prices are the same, but buy only from others. In words, he is the best friend. fellow , but in fact ... no He doesn’t want to unify the kitchen gardens, he’s ready to carry yours, but he doesn’t let his own. Here is such a relative. repeat He started his own family, began to live separately, if he himself provided. sad

      The strongest will come from the offended and arrange such a showdown that you’ll sit with the “flashlights” and, wiping your snot, ask everyone - but why me ???

      It’s not in our tradition to sit with “flashlights” and wipe the snot. Over the past three hundred years, many such "strongest" have come. Rich traditions are on this score. "Whoever comes to us with a sword will receive in a brazen red face" angry

      ... and me for what ???

      In the original, it sounds "but us for sho" ??? lol So used to talk a little trap. hi
  2. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 27 September 2019 13: 07
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    Quote: Igor Pavlovich
    In such articles, I absolutely do not understand the author’s logic - when you go to the bazaar, you buy the same fruits — you buy vegetables from different sellers, who would you prefer? The one who sells for the ruble, or the one for two? What does the derogatory sarcasm “Small, but proud Belarus ...” have to do with it? And why, in that case, should Moscow "strain"? The bazaar, it is also a bazaar in Africa - raised the price, buyers ran to another. He beat and drove out competitors, established a monopoly - get ready that the strongest will come from the offended and arrange such a showdown that you will sit with “flashlights” and, wiping your snot, ask everyone - but for what ???

    You tell your arguments to the Ukrainian authorities. For political reasons, they are buying Russian gas from Europeans, not from Gazprom. Europeans are more expensive.
    Do you understand this logic?
    1. Igor Pavlovich Offline
      Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 27 September 2019 15: 31
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      No, I don’t understand - I’m talking about Belarus and you about Ukraine ... A conversation between a blind man and a deaf man ...
      1. General Black Offline
        General Black (Gennady) 27 September 2019 16: 18
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        So But father walked around the market. Venezuela flew $ 1,3 billion, from Azerbaijan about 800 million. As a result, it still takes it from Russia. And so he has everything that his collective-farm savvy does not apply to, everything is unprofitable.
      2. King3214 Offline
        King3214 (Sergius) 27 September 2019 18: 32
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        Why "blind with the deaf"?
        You are about logic and you have been given an example of logic. Ukrainian logic. Which exists in objective reality.
        It is clear that "Ukrainian logic" does not fit into your personal ideas about logic. But, the rest is something to do with it?
      3. Victor N Offline
        Victor N (Victor n) 28 September 2019 14: 54
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        Verily! Only who is deaf and who is blind?
    2. Igor Pavlovich Offline
      Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 27 September 2019 15: 55
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      By the way, about Ukraine - rummaged on the Internet and found fresh numbers. Everyone knows that litigation is ongoing between Gazprom and Naftogaz in the Stockholm arbitration. The arbitration ordered Gazprom to sell gas to Naftogaz in the first quarter for $ 300, and in the second for $ 221. At the same time, Russia refused to supply gas. Now Naftogaz buys gas in Europe much cheaper: in the first quarter - $ 259, in the second quarter - $ 212, the July price - $ 178. Now tell me about the political motives of Russia and Ukraine ...
      1. 123 Offline
        123 (123) 30 September 2019 01: 45
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        [quote] [Now Naftogaz buys gas in Europe much cheaper: in the first quarter - $ 259, in the second quarter - $ 212, July price - $ 178. / quote]
        The proposal is incomplete, there is in the original, there is a comma and it says "reported Kobelev."

        https://www.finanz.ru/novosti/aktsii/gazprom-kapituliroval-v-gazovom-spore-s-ukrainoy-1028263798

        That is, this is an interview with the head of Naftogaz, where he tells how good he is. And is everything really good with them?
        We look at the prices for the year:

        https://pproxy.finanz.ru/cst/FinansnetRU/Share/chart.aspx?instruments=300002,28,0,333&style=instrument
        _double_precision & period = FiveYears & timezone = Russian% 20Standard% 20Time

        It seems to be true, prices are falling, everything is wonderful.

        Better yet, watch for all the time, so to speak, "the great is seen from a distance." Who on this chart will see the decline in prices?
        1. Igor Pavlovich Offline
          Igor Pavlovich (Igor Pavlovich) 30 September 2019 10: 04
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          We open gas price charts in real time at the European hubs closest to Ukraine - the Dutch TTF and the German NCG and GASPOOL, and watch for yourself without Kobelev ...
  3. fantom63 Offline
    fantom63 (Ruslan) 28 September 2019 19: 57
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    It would not hurt to check what is cooler - Nuland cookies or Tula gingerbread.