Refusal of an oil pipe: what is behind Lukashenko’s threats against Russia

The "integration issue" threatens to completely ruin the "marriage of convenience" of Belarus and Russia. Minsk tightly clung to its status of "Moscow ally" with special rights, but without special obligations. Alexander Lukashenko threatened to replace Russian oil pumped through the Druzhba pipeline with raw materials from the USA, Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan. Oil, this "black blood" of the world economicsmay stand between two fraternal peoples.




Alexander Grigoryevich said that Minsk is working on an alternative “northern route”:

I directly told the Russian authorities. And through Poland, through the Baltic states. There is progress. But if we start supplying oil through Poland, we will pick up two strands of the Druzhba oil pipeline, through which Russian oil is exported.


What exactly is it about?

Friendship is a Soviet project of mutual assistance to East European countries with socialist regimes. It is the world's largest oil trunk pipeline; the total length of the pipe is 8900 kilometers. "Friendship" is divided into northern and southern sections. In the north include, in addition to Belarus, Germany, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. Through the southern section there is a connection with Ukraine.

Almost 50 million tons of oil is pumped through the northern branch of Belarus annually. For objective reasons, it is Moscow that is the main supplier of hydrocarbons for Minsk. The Belarusian partners settled down quite well, receiving, like friends, oil at a great discount, refining and selling oil products for export. The business is good, profitable.

However, the changed geopolitical situation demanded certain response steps from our Belarusian friends. The general deterioration of the economic situation in Russia and the “problem 2024” can be resolved by deepening integration within the Union State. But for some reason Minsk did not inflame with enthusiasm, on the contrary, it began in every possible way to evade real unification. The “tax maneuver”, leading to the deprivation of all economic preferences, has become one of the ways Moscow has put pressure on the Belarusian authorities.

Alexander Grigoryevich figuratively called the Kremlin’s actions an attempt to “tilt him”, and, in turn, threatened to strike at our common “Friendship”. The matter is quite serious. Belarus can indeed voluntarily switch to the purchase of American, Saudi or Azerbaijani oil, and the Kremlin will lose both the Belarusian market and transit further to Europe. Many can support Minsk in this anti-Russian project. Political analyst Igor Shatrov explains:

This is an opportunity for Poland - to make money on transit, and for Lithuania - to also provide work for ports that lack cargo for transshipment, because Russia already practically does not use the port infrastructure of the Baltic states.


Another question - is Alexander Grigoryevich ready to really go that far in his bidding? The rejection of Russian oil will inevitably lead to a rise in the cost of raw materials for industry and consumers. You can also not doubt the sharp deterioration in relations with Moscow, for which the “pipe is sacred."

Political analysts reassure that such statements by the Belarusian leader are related to his election rhetoric, aimed at an internal audience. President Lukashenko is an experienced politician who will not cross the “red line” without extreme need. His words are a powerful argument in the negotiations. So, they will agree further.
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  1. SERGEY SERGEEVICS 9 September 2019 14: 03
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    Refusal of an oil pipe: what is behind Lukashenko’s threats against Russia.

    Yes, nothing is behind these threats, another PR on their part and raising their rating - and nothing more. No one will and will not be able to supply oil, many times cheaper than ours. At a loss to themselves, for their sake, no one will work. If it was so easy, how do they say that then they don’t take this oil?
  2. Valentine Offline
    Valentine (Valentin) 9 September 2019 17: 37
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    Well, why, there are our neighbors - “horses”, whom the national pride of “divine identity” has been gorging for about 80 years, can easily do without oil and gas supplies from Russia, buying it from the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland, albeit at exorbitant prices but it’s not for the damned Muscovites. But Father can do the same - the Poles will help the PANs with LNG and oil from America, because Lukashenko will not pay from his own pocket, but ordinary Belarusians will blame Russia for everything, he’s also the one a blackmailer and a swindler, and the State Department will do everything so that Belarus goes in the footsteps of blood Ukraine, with Maidan in Minsk, burning tires and its "heavenly hundred" ... It's just complete ... does not understand that everything is going to this, and there will be no peace between us, and our cowardly authorities will only “worry” and threaten with a laurel finger, and supply Butska on the cheap with our latest weapons, and most Belarusians have already been brainwashed with hatred for Russia, as well as the Ukro Bandera people.
    1. Marzhecki Offline
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 10 September 2019 07: 43
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      You are right, the probability of such a scenario is very high. If Putin goes too far with integration, then Luke can do it. Vaughn and Bolton were already arriving for consultations.
      1. SERGEY SERGEEVICS 10 September 2019 10: 10
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        Quote: Marzhetsky
        You are right, the probability of such a scenario is very high. If Putin goes too far with integration, then Luke can do it. Vaughn and Bolton were already arriving for consultations.

        Of course! You can do a lot, but there will be no sense in it. And where they will take the money to pay for these supplies, again We will beg for money.
    2. SERGEY SERGEEVICS 10 September 2019 10: 05
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      ... can easily do without the supply of oil and gas from Russia, buying it from the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland.

      As long as they have reserves of gas preserved for storage, they will cope with this. But they have already torn seals from it, and this can only mean that everything is not so smooth, it turns out, with these supplies.
      Valentine, and then what they then drown with grass, if they found suppliers?
    3. Gadlei Offline
      Gadlei 10 September 2019 17: 01
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      If Maidan goes, the Old Man will fly off first. And then he will ask to Rostov.
  3. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 10 September 2019 10: 48
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    Quote: SERGEY SERGEEVICS
    ... can easily do without the supply of oil and gas from Russia, buying it from the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland.

    As long as they have reserves of gas preserved for storage, they will cope with this. But they have already torn seals from it, and this can only mean that everything is not so smooth, it turns out, with these supplies.
    Valentine, and then what they then drown with grass, if they found suppliers?

    Reorientation of supplies is a matter of principle, costly and long. But if a decision is made, then that's it ...
    While the matter is at the level of verbal threat, but it is not empty.
    1. Valentine Offline
      Valentine (Valentin) 10 September 2019 12: 38
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      You perfectly remember everything that preceded the Ukrainian Maidan, and we warned them that

      Do not go, children, to Africa for a walk ...

      those. to Europe, without coordinating with us all aspects of the further coexistence of the two BROTHER nations, but ... As you remember, back in 2004, Yushchenko called Russia the enemy No. 1, and with whose supply you guess, then they started blackmail us with a gas pipe, and pumping gas, and the cost of this pumping, and that they are now very proud Europeans, and they do not need any gas discounts from Russia, but give them a European price. Well, Julia went to Moscow, and she did so there, and under the contract gas became much more expensive for them, and the authorities "non-stop", as usual, blamed Russia for this, and that we were no longer brothers, and never were. The Yankees have one method for spreading "color revolutions" and promoting "democracy" in countries unfriendly to them, where with fire and sword, and where with a stick and a carrot. Ukraine (Bandera-Galichanskaya) gladly went to this, having arranged a coup and a civil war, when several thousand Galician Natsiks brought 42 million Ukraine to their knees, and now Washington has transferred all this to Belarus, as if by tracing, and only wait for Minsk to flare up, since the population of this country is mentally and religiously not homogeneous, it is full of its own. And “white”, and “red”, and “green”, and only a small spark is needed, and from it the same flame can ignite as in Ukraine. And so that this does not happen, we need not to talk with Father But, but to remove him, no matter how. But just as the United States does in other countries, and put a pro-Russian governor in its place, because Lukashenka’s further steps will be a direct and obvious threat to the security of our state, and on the basis of an agreement on friendship and cooperation, we have every right to send our troops there, for coup prevention,
      after all, Belarus is our last outpost from the wild West .... It is clear that everything is already provided for in our General Staff and the Security Council of the Russian Federation, but it all goes somehow slippery, muddy and slow, and the Anaconda squeezes and squeezes everything, and what is it like for us, the people of Russia, to look at it?
      1. SERGEY SERGEEVICS 10 September 2019 14: 48
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        ... on the basis of an agreement on friendship and cooperation, we have every right to send our troops there to prevent a coup.

        We have the right to introduce troops, and whether this will be done, that is the question. In principle, there is a slightly different situation, they may introduce it. I believe that their president will not change us for minke whales, however that may be, and no matter how bent the stick. He perfectly understands what this could lead their country to if he begins to flirt with minke whales. Yes, and experience already exists, just look at what happened to those countries that began to flirt with minke whales.
        1. Robert Robertovich 10 September 2019 14: 55
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          Why then these periodic public tantrums, what is the point then? What are these claims for compensation for Chernobyl? Normal such a European call.
          1. SERGEY SERGEEVICS 10 September 2019 14: 57
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            Just like that, in the open, no one will give them money. You just need another reason for this.
            1. Robert Robertovich 10 September 2019 15: 00
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              You are wrong, they just gave them money without any “reasons” - he came, asked, gave.
              1. SERGEY SERGEEVICS 10 September 2019 15: 07
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                You are not right.

                I just expressed my opinion on this fact, just like you, you also do not know the real motives of these words, only you can also assume.

                ... they just gave them money without any "reason - he came, asked, they gave.

                So we have a lot of things that have changed in the country, in order to openly give them so.
          2. A.Lex Offline
            A.Lex (Secret information) 11 September 2019 09: 07
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            This is TRADING! He bargains for himself a post, in my opinion, in the United State!
      2. A.Lex Offline
        A.Lex (Secret information) 11 September 2019 09: 05
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        Valentine, although I put you a "+", but I do not quite agree with you. And that's why!
        AHL - not! He perfectly understands WHAT he faces a break with Russia. Let's go back a little in the historical sequence of relations between the Russian Federation and Belarus of the post-Soviet period. Remember when you first talked about mutual integration? And you know what was the subject of the agreements? And here's what - Lukashenko became the Prime Minister of a joint state !!! This arrangement was when the feeding trough in Russia still had an oligarchy (why they agreed to this is a mystery!). This is what bothers me - when the GDP came to power, the previous agreements in the AHL on "premiership" went into the woods! And this "proud soul of the poet" could not stand. And the riots and blackmail began. But everything was not so bad - you just have to keep your promises. Those. promised him the premiership - to lead this line to the end. The question is how competent he will be - it was possible to settle in the first term of his actual work. Maybe he would have done it! But no - changing the premiere for senior management is not a problem of impossibility. In addition, the Belarusian leadership since the days of the USSR showed itself on the good side, and it was not their fault that none of them was at the head of the Union. There is even an assumption that THEY were intentionally not allowed. But the mess and the collapse of the Country of Soviets were carried out by immigrants from the USSR (!). And what would happen if at the head of the Soviet Union there would be leaders with Belarusian roots ... we will NEVER know this now ... but it's a pity!
        To summarize, if the Russian side fulfills its part of the agreement with Lukashenko, then, I suspect, it will cease to exist.
        ................... But this is just my guess. And I do not claim to be the truth .....................
    2. A.Lex Offline
      A.Lex (Secret information) 11 September 2019 08: 49
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      All these Polish and Baltic deliveries are, of course, good ... But who will PAY? Who will pay for the construction and procurement of everything and everything? Belarusians? I doubt that they are already sitting on the subsidized needle of Russia. If this happens, Russia will cut off support for the Belarusian economy (let’s take it as an assumption). And AHL knows this PERFECTLY! But then the economy of the Republic of Belarus will collapse into the abyss, because the EU or the Americans WILL NOT BECOME sponsoring them (while the AHL is in power). And then ... then the Maidan there blazes with such force that the Nazi coup in the Kuev limit seems like a kindergarten. After all, we with the Ukrainian territories have already passed (we used to be, and they later) Maidan technologies. We got the vaccine (although not completely, but the majority of the Russian population will not go to repeat the collapse of the state if ... if the authorities do not fool), the overthrow of the government. Ukrainians NOW go through their stage of the disease (whether they will succeed or not is still unknown). But the Belarusians ... these have remained in a "frozen" state and their "Maidan" is yet to come! Or maybe it will not be, if father does not become foolish to toil and integration takes place before 2024. But there is no judgment, there is nothing further - everything is in historical fog.
      Therefore, all this talk about "reorientations", discussions about projects that will NEVER BE FULFILLED. For all this is empty threats, on the verge of Russophobia. A "product" named "Russophobia" is very much in demand in the West (which Ukrainians use). So father decided to play a similar game - they say, look, and I can get over it (how does this threaten PERSONALLY - he understands perfectly, and therefore IT will not go beyond words). The only thing I would do in place of our authorities would be to say:

      True? Well, come on - go ahead! We are ready to see what you get.

      And, stocking up with seeds, and taking a place in the front row, prepare to contemplate an action called "Belarusian Maidan". And it will happen (everything has already settled down there and people will not tolerate drastic changes!) - the decline in living standards will come instantly - without Russian support, the economy of the Republic of Belarus is not viable, so that some "experts" would not start screaming.
      ... Here is such a picture! ...
  4. Robert Robertovich 10 September 2019 14: 46
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    It has already become a tradition that every time after Putin’s public words that it would be time, in fact, and not in words, to build a union state, so father begins to respond with spits in the direction of Russia.
    1. A.Lex Offline
      A.Lex (Secret information) 11 September 2019 09: 08
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      This is a bargain !!! And nothing more.
      1. Valentine Offline
        Valentine (Valentin) 11 September 2019 11: 03
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        With the above, I completely agree with you, but here it’s not at all, or maybe I’m not catching up - the “current moment” is not bargaining, but real blackmail, or are these words synonymous now?
  5. Marzhecki Offline
    Marzhecki (Sergei) 11 September 2019 09: 02
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    Quote: A.Lex
    And, stocking up with seeds and taking a place in the front row, prepare to contemplate an action called "Belarusian Maidan". And it will happen (everything has already settled down there and people will not tolerate drastic changes!) - the decline in living standards will come instantly - without Russian support, the economy of the Republic of Belarus is not viable, so that some "experts" would not start screaming.

    I would not joke with such things.
    1. A.Lex Offline
      A.Lex (Secret information) 20 September 2019 12: 13
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      Sergey, and this is not a joke ... This is the very probable future of the Republic of Belarus, if ... If the AHL will be like that - "both ours and yours." It is not possible to be “affectionate calves” at the moment - you are either a friend or an enemy ... there is no third way (moreover, your economy depends on your neighbor and at the same time turn it back and forth to him, then to him?).