Poland intends to “flood” Ukraine with American gas

Poland intends to become a major East European gas hub, displacing Russia from the Ukrainian blue fuel market. In its ambitions, Warsaw relies on US assistance. Will the US-Polish Union manage to squeeze Gazprom out of Nezalezhnaya? Let's try to figure it out.

As you know, Kiev is already threatening to block the transit pipe to the EU on January 1 of next year if a new contract is not signed on its terms. Formally, Ukraine has not bought Russian gas at all for several years, but everyone knows that “reverse gas from Europe” is the same Gazprom gas, but just more expensive. If there is no transit, then there will be no “reverse." Some time can be spent on stockpiles in underground gas storage facilities, but what to do when they run out too?

And here friends from Poland are ready to come to the aid of Ukraine. Warsaw has been playing its game for a long time, trying to gain the status of a regional gas hub. And, I must admit, she has some chances to succeed in this.

Today, Poland buys 70% of imported gas in Russia. The contract was signed in 1996, and provides for the supply of 10 billion cubic meters per year. The contract expires in 2022. In addition, Gazprom pumps 29 billion cubic meters of gas annually through Polish territory. Warsaw is not happy with transit tariffs, and for a long time it intends to revise them upwards. Poland is also interested in renegotiating a contract with Russian monopolists for the purchase of gas for its own needs on more favorable terms for itself.

It should be noted that the Poles were not idle. After President Putin’s famous Munich speech, they opted for diversifying supplies and reducing dependence on Russia.

At firstThe Baltic Pipe gas pipeline should provide Poland with 10 billion cubic meters of “blue fuel” per year pumped from Norway.

Secondly, an LNG terminal was built in иноwinoujцеcie, with a capacity of 5 billion cubic meters. Despite the fact that the terminal has been idle for half all these years, Warsaw intends to increase its capacity to 7,5 billion and build a new LNG terminal already in Gdansk. Recently, American and British LNG producers have been actively entering the Polish market. Long-term contracts have already been concluded with Cheniere Marketing International, Venture Global LNG and Centrica. A Russian expert, Maria Belova, comments on this:

Most likely, Poland will seek to cover its gas needs with relatively cheap raw materials from Russia and Norway, and trade, with neighbors that have no alternatives, expensive American LNG.

Neighboring no alternatives, of course, is Ukraine, which itself is ready to block the transit pipe. But is the game worth the candle?

Poland can provide Independent gas in two ways. The first is that at its terminal LNG is regasified and pumped to the Ukrainian border in Hermanowice. But this method requires a final cessation of transit, the pipe from Russia should be empty. There is a trickier supply chain, which is described by a well-known expert, Igor Yushkov:

They will receive LNG in иноwinoujцеcie, pump it to the point of intersection with the Europol gas pipeline - this is the Polish part of the Yamal-Europe system, through which Russian gas flows through Belarus, Poland and Germany. There, gas from the LNG terminal will be sent to the pipe to Germany. They will take the same volumes of gas on the border with Belarus and send it to Ukraine.

In general, the idea is clear. Due to the cessation of transit, fuel prices in Europe will rise sharply, which increases the efficiency of US LNG producers. In the plus are the Poles, who tie Kiev to themselves, with a wrap, reselling them American gas. But here is the benefit of Ukraine, it is not clear.

So, last year, the Independent “by reverse” received 11 billion cubic meters from the EU. Even if Poland expands its LNG terminal to 7,5 billion, which will not be soon, this is still not enough. And what about the price? Tales about inexpensive American LNG can only deceive those who have not heard about the cost of its subsequent delivery and regasification.
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  1. Oleg RB Offline Oleg RB
    Oleg RB (Oleg) 31 August 2019 11: 30
    Not by washing, so by skating, one way or another, countries need, from the point of view of their national security, to leave monopolization of supplies by only one country, which is dependence.
    So, there is nothing surprising - in fact, civilian exercises on energy independence are taking place now.
  2. beeper Offline beeper
    beeper 31 August 2019 11: 34
    The phrase "friends from Poland" can be immediately "put in quotation marks" without hesitation - or rather, in essence! yes
    And while Ukraine is being pushed around by the amer-marionette "Maidan authorities", one does not even have to dream of anything good and profitable for the working majority of the multinational Ukrainian population (not to mention the quasi "Nezalezhnaya" itself - "the stepmother of the peoples", who already looms the inevitable "kapets" a word from ukromolodezhny slang)!
  3. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 31 August 2019 17: 27
    - Eh ..., really, really, really personally, I don’t want to praise Poland ...
    - Well, it depends on the USA; well, she conducts exclusively US policy; well, she stands on her hind legs in front of the United States and happily picks up (on the fly) the American handouts casually thrown to her ... etc ... etc ... etc ...
    - But ... but ... but the fact that Poland suddenly squeezed into the "gas business" and squeezed in quite successfully ... - it does her credit ...
    - Well done, just done ... - absolutely out of the blue started a business, absolutely unfamiliar to her ...
    - To build gas hubs for LNG and regasification terminals, and to direct their actions to a serious gas business ... - this is worthy of recognition for Poland of quite sound commercial and industrial aspirations ...
    - Yes, of course ... - And the Americans helped Poland, and sent and gave it a guide .., but still - this is the merits of Poland and its success ...
    - In Ukraine, this would not have been possible - they would have simply plundered everything and ended up in the water ...
    - Yes, even rich Germany ... and then ... - also slammed unconditional European gas leadership ... - And Germany will now have to make up for everything ...
    - And what about Russia ... - And in Russia, due to the erroneous, near and unprofessional acts of Gazprom - the whole Russian gas business has been reduced to a primitive stupid craft ...
    - Russia was very late, late with the construction of LNG terminals; late with the construction of a network of diverse LNG plants; late with the global reconstruction and creation of the Russian, fundamentally new, global gas production industry ...
    - But Poland ... - not late; Poland took and got ahead ..., ahead of Russia ... - And now Poland will manipulate and juggle Russian and American gas; will supply foreign gas; will conclude trade agreements and transactions with the goods, the raw materials for the creation of which will be delivered to her by a sluggish and illiterate neighbor ...
    - It turns out that this is a profitable business - to have a limited and narrow-minded neighbor ... - You can just take advantage of his stupidity, sluggishness and his resources ... - bitter - Hahah ...
    1. Bitter Offline Bitter
      Bitter (Gleb) 1 September 2019 00: 48
      All this suggests that the Poles have a plan (maybe even not Polish at all) winkedand they stick to it. Surely, all this cacophony is funded by both the Americans and the European Union. The Poles themselves of a construction site of such proportions simply will not pull, because as before, large masses of Polish workers bring their blood babosiks from Germany, England, etc. by the list. request
      Germany also has a plan, and I am sure that we will soon be pleasantly surprised. yes
      It’s hard to say anything for Ukraine, everything is very unstable there, and both Poles and Germans see it .... hi
  4. Panting Offline Panting
    Panting (Vyacheslav) 31 August 2019 20: 05
    While fools live in the world,
    deception we live, therefore, with the hand.
    A fool not need a knife,
    you’re lying to him with three boxes -
    and do what you like with him!
  5. Port Offline Port
    Port 1 September 2019 09: 38
    Quote: Oleg RB
    Not by washing, so by skating, one way or another, countries need, from the point of view of their national security, to leave monopolization of supplies by only one country, which is dependence.
    So, there is nothing surprising - in fact, civilian exercises on energy independence are taking place now.

    You have water supply in your apartment, and you run to another city with cans, this is called idiocy, not non-volatility.
    PS Happen that hegemordor gas carriers stupidly do not swim to Poland, they will gasify crabs.
    1. The comment was deleted.
  6. Syoma_67 Offline Syoma_67
    Syoma_67 (Semyon) 1 September 2019 10: 01
    I read this nonsense from the series - "Ukraine will definitely freeze this year", "Ukrainians bastards", "Our Crimea", designed for those who do not know how to think "Hurray for patriots". I completely agree with Oleg RB - countries are moving away from energy dependence and they succeed, one way or another. And about the price - "do not go into someone else's pocket." The average Pole receives three times more than the average Russian, and he has a bank loan at 3% per annum, not 18, so he can afford to pay for gas twice as much as a Russian. Yes, and another unpleasant moment for Russia. Russia, in this case, is losing buyers of gas, at the expense of which it lives today, i.e. gas revenues will decline, which will immediately affect the pockets of Russians. Not those who sit in the Duma and tell such nonsense, but privates who plow in factories.
    1. Oleg RB Offline Oleg RB
      Oleg RB (Oleg) 1 September 2019 21: 09
      These ordinary people support the complete political impotence of the Russian authorities. For - believers in the holiness of Russia.