US on the verge of economic collapse: reality or propaganda?

Through the efforts of President Donald Trump economy USA is booming. American wages are rising, unemployment is formally at a historic low, exchanges are up. But more and more economists are saying that the United States can fall into a recession in the foreseeable future, drowning the entire world economy with it. What is behind these predictions is harsh reality or political ordering Trump opponents?

Is the recession approaching?

There are a number of unfavorable factors that make it possible to give pessimistic forecasts.

At first, the American president can not find a common language with the Federal Reserve. Donald Trump insists on a consistent reduction in the key rate, which will stimulate the further development of the national economy. The Fed lowered the rate in July by 25 points, but immediately made it clear that it was a one-time event.

Secondlyinvestors are not optimistic about the ongoing trade war with China. Mutual duties hit on both sides of the conflict, while Beijing continues to devalue the yuan, making US-made goods less competitive than Chinese ones.

ThirdlyDue to the obvious and undisguised protectionism of the United States under the slogan "America First", many other countries have begun a gradual drift away from the use of the dollar in the calculations in favor of their national currencies. Against this background, demand for gold rose sharply. Rising in price, the precious metal hits the "American", weakening its position.

At last, troubling signals come from the US government debt bond market. Financial expert Oksana Kholodenko explains:

The Treasuries yield curve is almost completely inverted (inverted) in the middle segment. Last week, the spread of yields on 10 and 2-year US government bonds moved into the negative zone. In the time span since 1955, a similar alignment preceded nine recessions in the States.

All this allows a number of experts to assess the likelihood of a recession in the United States in the next 1-2 years at 30%. It turns out that the Titanic is already sailing towards its iceberg, but the captain is not in the know?

The battle for the White House?

The American elites are no worse than you and me, and everyone understands perfectly. However, what is happening must be considered in the context of the struggle of Democrats and Republicans for power. President Trump has officially launched his campaign. Financial expert Frenkel comments on this situation:

All this looks like an element of the beginning of the election campaign. And the recession, even if formal, on the numbers, would be a very good help for the Democrats in the struggle for the White House.

According to The New York Times, Republican Trump, for his part, has prepared a new set of measures for the development of the economy, among them the abolition of a number of duties and a reduction in the payroll tax. The idea will be extremely popular among voters, but it will almost certainly be cut off by political opponents in Congress. A presidential candidate will be able to use this denial to his advantage.

In general, everything is complicated.
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  1. Sergey Latyshev Offline
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 22 August 2019 09: 06
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    ABOUT! A week passed, and at Ura-zhurnalyug again -

    The US is on the brink of economic collapse.

    And so already 30 years.
    The conclusions are obvious.
  2. Oleg RB Offline
    Oleg RB (Oleg) 22 August 2019 10: 26
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    • 5
    Shaw, again? belay
    Well, well, it's really too much.
  3. g1washntwn Offline
    g1washntwn (George Washington) 22 August 2019 13: 50
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    • 1
    If collapse means living within our means, then for the USA this is definitely a collapse - the end of a freebie, in general.
  4. YATWIAG. BY Offline
    YATWIAG. BY (Cheslav) 22 August 2019 19: 36
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    • 5
    How much I live, how much I hear these mantras about the imminent collapse of the American economy ... well, it affects a certain part of the population. All this has been going on since Soviet times ... The USSR has long since ordered a long life, and some comrades still continue to be in the clouds.
    1. maidan.izrailovitch (Maidan Izrailovich) 26 August 2019 16: 57
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      Now the USSR has long ordered a long life ....

      In the West, the USSR was called Soviet Russia. Now Russia is capitalist. So, for the West, no one was dying. crying
  5. Yuri Nemov Offline
    Yuri Nemov (Yuri Nemov) 23 August 2019 09: 11
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    Nothing is eternal under the Moon.

    Star-striped mode is bound to fall. And with such a load of problems that he has, the fall will be very loud.
  6. Nikolay Malyugin (Nikolai Malyugin) 27 August 2019 06: 18
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    If Macron called capitalism silly, then, we must assume that there is reason for this. All countries of the West are jammed by social stratification. And the US is no exception. If you read even the foreign press, then even business circles are concerned about this fact. Some are even willing to raise their own taxes to avoid unpleasant consequences. Nobody knows how this will actually look.