About the failure of the Communist Party and the upcoming changes in the political landscape

In connection with the protest activity intensified by the “Single Day of Voting”, the question of the real number of citizens who want qualitative (and therefore radical with respect to today's agenda) changes in the country is of interest. Let's try, without claiming to be the ultimate truth, to quantify the protest, based on official statistics.




The Communist Party rally "For Fair Elections" was held in Moscow on August 17, gathering (despite the calls of Nikolai Bondarenko, who was openly campaigning on a YouTube channel against a yellow vest), 4 people. At the same time, according to the CEC, the candidate from the Communist Party received 000 votes in the 2018 presidential election in Moscow. Thus, assuming that the number of Communist Party supporters in Moscow for one and a half years remained unchanged, 563% of voters showed a real readiness to go out and support their party.

The rally (not a concert) of Navalny "For admission to the elections", held on July 20, 2019, gathered 12 people. If we take the 000% obtained above as a reference value and apply it to the calculations, we get the possible number of Muscovites who disagree with the “general line”: 0,7 million 1 thousand 714 people.

According to the data posted on the CEC official website, as of January 1, 2019, 7 voters were registered in Moscow. Thus, the protest mood can cover 265% of the total number of all voters in Moscow. And if we take into account the appearance at the presidential elections (about 749% - politically passive citizens do not use their right to vote), then this number will reach 23,6%.

It is clear that in order to increase the accuracy of estimates, it is necessary to take into account the weather on the days in question, compare the scale and significance of the events, the average age of the participants, the number of “paid”, the number of people who voted not for the Communist Party, but for Grudinin, the quality of campaigning and the like, but let us give this assessment to the reader - it is too subjective (although, of course, significant).

Are all participants in Navalny rallies his unconditional supporters?

Of course, no.

The factual lack of support for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, as the largest parliamentary opposition, while simultaneously exceeding the support of the “Navalny team”, means one thing - a significant number of politically active citizens strongly disagree with the “cosmetic” changes that the current parliamentary opposition can offer if it wins the election.

Are these citizens interested in the “Maidan” scenario of change? Obviously, the vast majority are not interested in this, but political there is no power in the country to express their mindsets.

It turns out an interesting situation - there is a protest "electorate", but there is no political force expressing its interests. And since demand always creates supply, such a force is bound to appear in the coming years. Given the largely unjustified nostalgia for the USSR and the popularity of Stalin, a sense of injustice among the majority of citizens, this force (if it wants to really win, and not just go into power) should be left-handed.

It is clear that the emergence of such a political party is extremely unprofitable for the supporters of the status quo, so it would be naive to expect its registration in the near future.

However, it is also clear that if registration is denied, a protest, for lack of any other way out, may acquire a "Maidan", destructive for the state, character.
Photos used: https://twimg.com
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13 comments
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  1. Bulanov Offline
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 18 August 2019 10: 03
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    In order to stay in power longer, the ruling party should carefully listen to the constructive opposition and try to implement their slogans, at least partially. Swagger in politics always leads to loss.
  2. Anchonsha Offline
    Anchonsha (Anchonsha) 18 August 2019 11: 18
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    Yes, current officials just need to work with people, regardless of region. Less stealing, more attention to social issues, issues of equitable distribution based on the results. Talk more with people about decisions made. And Khodorkovsky heaped with sables will remain out of work.
  3. Bakht Offline
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 18 August 2019 11: 28
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    "Constructive opposition" does not exist in current politics.
    And I can repeat what I wrote a couple of days ago - 15 thousand people at a meeting of Navalny, this is a lot.
  4. Mihail55 Offline
    Mihail55 (Michael) 18 August 2019 16: 48
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    Old ideas, old leaders ... where will the strong Communist Party come from?
    1. Digital error Offline
      Digital error (Eugene) 18 August 2019 19: 20
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      Quote: Michael55
      Old leaders ... where will the strong Communist Party come from?

      The question is different - which party and when will “push” the EP and the Communist Party in parliament, this is inevitable.
      1. Citizen Mѣshkov (Sergѣi) 20 August 2019 04: 20
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        Well, even if "move" so what? After a while, everything will fall into place again. Then again "move"? The problem is not in the parties, but in the system itself.
  5. Sergey Latyshev Offline
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 19 August 2019 10: 41
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    Ha. Yes, you are like children ...

    Which party and when it “moves” the EP and the Communist Party in parliament, this is inevitable.

    Old parties are enough to rebrand. To be called "Our country Russia" and "United Communist Party", for example, that's all.
    And copy-paste part of the ideas from Bulk to take to steal ideas.

    Everyone will run to vote, how nice.

    And for those who completely disagree - nobody has canceled the greenback, pipes, provocateurs and snipers on the roof. And to the elections - to organize a provocation - just to spit.
    1. Digital error Offline
      Digital error (Eugene) 19 August 2019 22: 52
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      Quote: Sergey Latyshev
      Everyone will run to vote, how nice.

      You cannot win if you do not believe in anything.
      Already now, according to polls, 30% of voters do not watch news on television at all, preferring the Internet.
      Here’s the "Navalny team" today threw another video onto its YouTube channel - on it the main Moscow United Russia party actually confessed to two things: a) that he was proud of being a member of EP (while being nominated as an "independent deputy" - this is a paradox), b) that he still has not sued Navalny for the July "investigation" (what prevented, if there is nothing to hide?). They won't talk about it on TV, but it was. And the "nuclear electorate" was watching TV at that time - there the president won another convincing foreign policy "victory", now over Macron.
      Meanwhile, RBC quotes Macron as follows:

      Macron agreed that the protests in France were accompanied by acts of violence. He recalled that France has always respected not only its own Constitution, but also the European Convention on Human Rights. “As for the yellow vests, they had the opportunity to present their candidates in the recent European Parliament elections. It is necessary to distinguish between freedom of expression and public order issues. I think here it is necessary to dot the i ”
    2. Citizen Mѣshkov (Sergѣi) 20 August 2019 04: 23
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      I.e -

      At stake, we start all over again.

      A change of name will not change anything.
      1. Digital error Offline
        Digital error (Eugene) 20 August 2019 07: 00
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        Quote: Citizen Mѣshkov
        A change of name will not change anything.

        This is what we are talking about. We need new people and new ideas.
    3. Digital error Offline
      Digital error (Eugene) 20 August 2019 06: 57
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      Quote: Sergey Latyshev
      "United Communist Party"

      If you are hinting at a picture, then it’s editorial - I hear about them for the first time.
      1. Sergey Latyshev Offline
        Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 20 August 2019 09: 05
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        Ha.
        1) I just examined the picture. This is what the life-giving subconscious mind does.
        2)

        A change of name will not change anything.

        - but they will vote as they should, anyway.
        They voted for the new GDP, which was not particularly known to anyone, and then Medvedev, and with good percentages. And now - a year of PR, and they will vote again. At least 99, at least 120%. They will openly throw in batches - and no violations.
        3) Bulk in any will not work.

        There are no crimes that the bourgeoisie does not commit for profit.

        - immortally.
        For the sake of theft, hacienda and children abroad - in our case, state capitalism.
        "Sobchaki" gain 3% and all ...
  6. Alexey Zhidkov Offline
    Alexey Zhidkov (Alexey Zhidkov) 20 August 2019 09: 25
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    "THINK, COMRADE!"

    Goodbye United Russia
    In the land of slaves, in the land of masters,
    And you are the “great messiahs" ...
    The deceived people have risen!


    AM LIQUIDS.