Russian authorities do not know how to spend trillions of rubles
Oil excess profits going to the Russian budget from high prices for “black gold” set new records. As of August 1, “extra money” in the NWF totals nearly 8 trillion rubles. It would seem that in the face of ever-increasing Western sanctions, it's time to invest them in modernizing the domestic economics and the notorious "import substitution", but many responsible persons have completely different plans for this money.
Where did these trillions come from? According to the “budget rule”, to which Aleksey Kudrin had a hand in his time, all revenues exceeding the price of a barrel of $ 41,6 are sent to the NWF. The idea of "egg capsule" is not so bad in itself; it is always useful to have a "stash for a rainy day." But there are nuances.
A year ago, President Vladimir Putin He pledged make a breakthrough in improving the quality of life of Russians. The price of the issue is 10 trillion rubles, that is, only 2 trillion more than what is already in the NWF. However, "improving our lives" will be a paradoxical way, for example, introducing new taxes and increasing existing ones. In particular, VAT was increased from 18% to 20%, which in turn inevitably led to higher prices for goods and services for the population. What exactly is the "improvement" here, as they say, "without a pint" you will not understand.
Independent experts and economists of the “old school” offer to invest in the country's industrialization and infrastructure modernization, which will create new jobs, a tax base, and allow for the long-promised economic breakthrough. But our realities are such that all of these options are not seriously considered. The "experts" of the liberal school, bulging their tin eyes terribly, arrogantly say that they "do not even imagine" what harm all this will cause to the Russian economy. Indeed, where should they go, if the IMF directly advises investing the NWF in “high-quality foreign assets”:
How the withdrawal from the domestic oil economy of 8 trillion abroad will contribute to its growth and diversification is not entirely clear. But those “are crushed by authority”, making it difficult to think independently. Many copies have already been broken in the Russian media and social networks regarding how independent our financial authorities are in making decisions, and the degree to which they look at “Western partners,” but the facts are as follows.
According to existing rules, NWF funds can be invested in the economy after reaching a level of 7% of GDP. In fact, this threshold has been reached a long time ago, but there is one important clarification - these should be “liquid funds” of the fund. So far, this liquidity threshold has been quite successfully “pushed back” by investing in all kinds of securities, preferred shares of banks, etc. For example, $ 3 billion was swollen into Ukrainian sovereign bonds, and Kiev defaulted on them.
However, the flow of petrodollars is so great that anyway even the liquid part of the NWF will reach the level of 7% of GDP by the end of the year. And what will they do with them? The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation actively quarrel among themselves on this subject. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov explained that in his department are considering two positions:
What kind of projects are those where private traders carry 1 per 10 state ruble, Siluanov did not explain. In XNUMX, privatization of state property was so veiledly called, and what is meant now is not entirely clear. But the RF Ministry of Finance readily proposed an amendment that gives the right to grant export loans to foreign countries at the expense of the National Welfare Fund. True, the initiative of the Ministry was blocked by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Elvira Nabiullina’s department is generally against spending so much money from the NWF, as this will strengthen the ruble and “increase the vulnerability of the Russian economy to external factors.”
In general, "everything is complicated."
Where did these trillions come from? According to the “budget rule”, to which Aleksey Kudrin had a hand in his time, all revenues exceeding the price of a barrel of $ 41,6 are sent to the NWF. The idea of "egg capsule" is not so bad in itself; it is always useful to have a "stash for a rainy day." But there are nuances.
A year ago, President Vladimir Putin He pledged make a breakthrough in improving the quality of life of Russians. The price of the issue is 10 trillion rubles, that is, only 2 trillion more than what is already in the NWF. However, "improving our lives" will be a paradoxical way, for example, introducing new taxes and increasing existing ones. In particular, VAT was increased from 18% to 20%, which in turn inevitably led to higher prices for goods and services for the population. What exactly is the "improvement" here, as they say, "without a pint" you will not understand.
Independent experts and economists of the “old school” offer to invest in the country's industrialization and infrastructure modernization, which will create new jobs, a tax base, and allow for the long-promised economic breakthrough. But our realities are such that all of these options are not seriously considered. The "experts" of the liberal school, bulging their tin eyes terribly, arrogantly say that they "do not even imagine" what harm all this will cause to the Russian economy. Indeed, where should they go, if the IMF directly advises investing the NWF in “high-quality foreign assets”:
This will protect resources for future generations of Russia and isolate the economy from oil price volatility, and support diversification and growth of the oil economy.
How the withdrawal from the domestic oil economy of 8 trillion abroad will contribute to its growth and diversification is not entirely clear. But those “are crushed by authority”, making it difficult to think independently. Many copies have already been broken in the Russian media and social networks regarding how independent our financial authorities are in making decisions, and the degree to which they look at “Western partners,” but the facts are as follows.
According to existing rules, NWF funds can be invested in the economy after reaching a level of 7% of GDP. In fact, this threshold has been reached a long time ago, but there is one important clarification - these should be “liquid funds” of the fund. So far, this liquidity threshold has been quite successfully “pushed back” by investing in all kinds of securities, preferred shares of banks, etc. For example, $ 3 billion was swollen into Ukrainian sovereign bonds, and Kiev defaulted on them.
However, the flow of petrodollars is so great that anyway even the liquid part of the NWF will reach the level of 7% of GDP by the end of the year. And what will they do with them? The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation actively quarrel among themselves on this subject. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov explained that in his department are considering two positions:
The first - if you invest, then invest abroad so that there is no pressure on the exchange rate and inflation, on tightening monetary policy... The second position - we need new money, and if this state money leads to the fact that private traders will invest ten rubles of private money on the ruble, why not.
What kind of projects are those where private traders carry 1 per 10 state ruble, Siluanov did not explain. In XNUMX, privatization of state property was so veiledly called, and what is meant now is not entirely clear. But the RF Ministry of Finance readily proposed an amendment that gives the right to grant export loans to foreign countries at the expense of the National Welfare Fund. True, the initiative of the Ministry was blocked by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Elvira Nabiullina’s department is generally against spending so much money from the NWF, as this will strengthen the ruble and “increase the vulnerability of the Russian economy to external factors.”
In general, "everything is complicated."
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